UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th) Official Bets

[Kamais_Ookin]

1.5u Esparza ML (-150) to win 1u
1.38u Werdum ITD (-138) to win 1u
1u Rozenstruik (+240) to win 2.4u

0.5u Hardy via Decision (+260) to win 1.3u
0.5u Mitchell ML + Ferguson ML to win 0.77u

0.25u Stephens ML (+200) to win 0.5u
0.25u Ngannou Round 1 (+187) to win 0.47u
0.25u Rozenstruik via Decision (+700) to win 1.75u
0.25u Cerrone via Decision (+375) to win 0.94u

0.15u Hardy Round 1 (+300) to win 0.45u
0.15u Oleinik Round 1 (+800) to win 1.2u
0.15u Gaethje Round 1 (+700) to win 1.05u
0.15u Gaethje Round 2 (+900) to win 1.35u
0.15u Gaethje Round 3 (+1400) to win 2.1u
0.15u Ferguson Round 3 (+750) to win 1.12u
0.15u Ferguson Round 4 (+1200) to win 1.8u
0.15u Ferguson Round 5 (+1800) to win 2.7u

0.07u Pettis Round 1 (+400) to win 0.28u
0.05u Alvey via KO/Sub (+550) to win 0.27u
0.05u Alvey Round 1 (+1200) to win 0.6u
0.05u Rosa Round 2 (+1600) to win 0.8u
0.05u Rosa Round 3 (+2500) to win 1.25u

0.05u Cejudo Round 3 (+1200) to win 0.6u
0.05u Cejudo Round 4 (+1600) to win 0.8u
0.05u Cejudo Round 5 (+2500) to win 1.25u

0.05u Ferguson Round 3 via KO (+1400) to win 0.7u
0.05u Ferguson Round 4 via KO (+2000) to win 1u
0.05u Ferguson Round 5 via KO (+3300) to win 1.65u
0.05u Ferguson Round 3 via Sub (+1400) to win 0.7u
0.05u Ferguson Round 4 via Sub (+2000) to win 1u
0.05u Ferguson Round 5 via Sub (+2800) to win 1.4u

Not going big on any 1 play this time around, easing my way back in to things after a long break with a bigger focus on live-betting for the first return of cards. Also playing more props than I usually do as there's too many juiced favorites on this card, and I just want to have a little extra fun seeing how many of them hit. Hoping things go decently with the addition of live-betting and then continue the momentum into the next 2 cards coming soon, where I'll try and find more fighters to straight bet. GL everyone!

Including livebets, down -5.5 units for the day. Hoping for bounceback next week.

 

[Sadistics]

Ferguson ITD -105 $800
Ferguson RD3 +800 $60
Ferguson RD4 +1000 $40
Gaethje KO +300 $50

Cruz +200 $300
Cruz DEC +305 $250
Cruz/Cejudo GTD -161 $350

Ngannou -240 $800

Kattar/Stephens O2.5 -145 $200
Kattar/Stephens GTD -142 $300

Luque RD2 +600 $60

Hardy/Castro O1.5 -125 $400
Hardy DEC +296 $150

Pettis -110 $275

Werdum -163 $209

Esparza -117 $1200
Esparza/Waterson GTD -369 $800

Mitchell -167 $500
Mitchell/Rosa GTD -145 $300

Alvey/Spann O1.5 -120 $300

Keeping things real small with all the uncertainty around training. Not liking the Mitchell bet, will be looking to reduce on LB. Livebet overall should be great, with availability and liquidity better than we've ever seen in MMA

+$112. I fucked up. Was up 3600 going into the co-main, threw nearly all of it away on Ferg -115 after rd2, Gaethje was supposed to drown dammit. Was very surprised by how his and Oleiniks cardio held up.

Strap in, we're going non-stop for the next 7 months.

 

[benebox]

£100 Pettis (-125) to win £80
£50 Cruz decision +350 to win £175 -£50
£30 Pettis KO +350 to win £105 -£30
£20 Castro decision +1200 to win £240 -£20
£10 Oleinik KO/TKO Round 1 to win £200 -£10
£50 Justin +210 to win £110

I'm not one to live bet as I normally watch with friends but I may start from now, some really good opportunities and I honestly think I prefer watching it on my own.

Live bet £100 Oleinik after 2 rds at 2.10 to win £110
Live bet £70 Hardy after rd 2 at 2.20 to win £84
Live bet Justin after rd 3 at 1.91 to win £45
.................................................................................
Total profit: Pre-bets £80 + Livebetting profit £219
Net profit: £299

 

[BigSteve]

Lil more research to be done, but most likely this is it..

Spann + Werdum $308 win $200 ( Cashed out after round 2 second fight, for 100 loss )
Alvey KO $15 win $105

Mitchel ML $370 win $200 ( Ended up cashing out pre fight )
Mitchel/Rosa start RD3 + Luque/Price Finish $289 win $200
Mitchel/Rosa start RD3 + Luque/Price End RD 1/2 $184 win $200

Luque ITD $485 win $300
Niko KO RD1 $30 win $270
Niko KO RD2 $25 win $325

Espraza/Waterson GTD + Luque/Price Finish $400 win $200

Geathje KO $53 win $100
Cruz Rd 4,5 or Dec $40 win $100

Cheeky lil multy for $10:

Spann/Alvey Finish +
Luque/Price Finish +
Jacare +
Espraza/Waterson GTD +
Werdum ITD +
Pettis/Cowboy GTD +
Hard/Castro start RD2 +
Cruz/Cejudo GTD to win $378

Added Live:
Espraza + 117
Cerrone - 50

Pre bet during event:
Cerrone/Pettis DEC: +100
Katter Rd3 or DEC: -90
Hardy/Castro over 1.5 + Ngannou: +100

+ $550 .
Il take it, few close calls, thank fuck for the doctor saving me for once in the Luque fight. Onto the next one.

 

[BigSteve]

+$112. I fucked up. Was up 3600 going into the co-main, threw nearly all of it away on Ferg -115 after rd2, Gaethje was supposed to drown dammit. Was very surprised by how his and Oleiniks cardio held up.

Strap in, we're going non-stop for the next 7 months.

Man I kept trying to pull the trigger on Ferg, round 1, then 2, then 3. But because you have to call in Australia for live betting ( retarted), odds kept dropping or being suspended so I just let Geathje KO ride lol.

 

[Sadistics]

Man I kept trying to pull the trigger on Ferg, round 1, then 2, then 3. But because you have to call in Australia for live betting ( retarted), odds kept dropping or being suspended so I just let Geathje KO ride lol.

Haha that's such a ridiculous law you guys have. Glad to hear it saved you cash at least

 

[BigSteve]

Haha that's such a ridiculous law you guys have. Glad to hear it saved you cash at least

Yea its messed up, so many times I feel like the lady on the other line takes as long as possible so the odds would shift.

 

[Sono07]

Looks like I'll probably miss most of the main card due to work. Bending a couple of my own rules but times are strange.

●Ngannou 1.5u for .5u
●Gaethje 1u for 1.5u
●Stephens +3 1/2 1.5u for 1.25u

Parlays

●Souza NSC (Canceled)+ Luque NSC 3u for 3.5u
●Ngannou NSC + Cejudo NSC 4u for 3u

*Adding a bit more
●Cerrone +3 1/2 & ME doesn't start r5
1.5u for 1.5u
●Nganno+ Cejudo+ Hardy 1u for 2u
●Ferguson+ Cejudo+ Spann 2u for 3.25u
●Ferguson+ Hardy+ Vettori+ Smith
1.5u for 7.75u

4 hours of sleep but i made it to work, just managed to watch the ME without knowing the outcome. Holy shit cardio king Gaethje had Tony afraid to commit to strikes. Did not think he would dominate to get that late stoppage. Nearly got in trouble betting too much on Luque live.
Gotta remember to stay away from Hardy too that was sketchy.

●Ngannou 1.5u for .5u
●Gaethje 1u for 1.5u
●Stephens +3 1/2 1.5u for 1.25u

Parlays

●Souza NSC (Canceled)+ Luque NSC 3u for 3.5u (1u adjusted)
●Ngannou NSC + Cejudo NSC 4u for 3u

*Adding a bit more
●Cerrone +3 1/2 & ME doesn't start r5
1.5u for 1.5u
●Nganno+ Cejudo+ Hardy 1u for 2u
●Ferguson+ Cejudo+ Spann 2u for 3.25u
●Ferguson+ Hardy+ Vettori+ Smith
1.5u for 7.75u


Posted prebets
+1.5

Late parlay, live bets and prebet total
+8.75

(.75u Oleinik live,
4u Gaethje ML+Alvey Spann O1.5,
2.5u Luque live)

 

[Vir_Ars]

fack... living in Europe sucks, The night was good, but was too tired to watch the last 3 fights and have a parlay going with Kattar ITD, Ngannou u1.5, Cejudo ITD and Ferguson ITD 10€ to win 180€ and my point was to hedge with Gaethje ITD if all teh rest won, but was sleeping and didnt hedge, but the rest good night.

 

[2020Tracked]

Pettis at 1.85 for 1 unit - My most confident pick of the night hits fairly comfortably.

Kattar by KO/TKO or Decision at 1.53 for 2 unit - Looked rough round one but Kattar looked deadly once he warmed up

Castro by KO/TKO or Decision at 2.38 for 1 unit - Things were looking good after the first, went down hill round two but got Hardy in a nice live bet line, plus money and covered my unit.

Niko Price KO/TKO at 4.40 for 0.5 unit - Bet Luque live after the first at 1.80 for two units, apparently they were even on score cards going into the third, that eye was fucked.

Added - Olinik KO/TKO round 1 at 19.00 for 0.25 unit, lol - This was a value play seeing Olinik beat the shit out of Doom the whole first round, bet Olinik live at 1.50 for a unit after the first.

Henry + Ferg at 2.20 for 1 unit - Cashed out and saved myself a half unit loss

All done I think

Over all not great pre fight but live bet was very good and I had this parley



Hedged with Justin just before the fight for guaranteed profit and hit Justin again live for another 0.5 unit at 2.00.

Good card, around 5 unit profit in the end, live bet saved me.

On to the next one

 

[xhaydenx]

I did 2k on Spann, Mitchell, and Luque all to win.

Profit was 3.3k.

Dirty because I picked literally every other fight on the card right except for the Werdum vs Oly one, because I didn't know what sort of shape Werdum was in, and didn't even want to guess.

I need to start betting on more than 3 fights per card so I can make closer to 10k, but I'm too much of a wuss, and I'd be happy with 1k profit per fight card, really.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

1.5u B. Mitchell ML -150
.2u B. Mitchell DEC +180

.2u S. Alvey KO +600

1u M. Waterson ML +140

2u Jacare ML -120
.5u Jacare SUB +270

3.2u CCC ML -220

Patiently waiting on Tony's line to improve.

+2.8u

 

[mkess101]

Werdum itd -141 to win $20--LOSS
Werdum rd 1 +190 for $20--LOSS
Werdum sub +475 for $20--LOSS
Ferguson itd -115 to win $20--LOSS
Ferguson rd 3 +800 for $20--LOSS
Pettis -150 to win $20--WIN
Pettis itd +245 for $20--LOSS
Ngannou itd -140 to win $20--WIN
Mitchell dec +150 for $20--WIN
Mitchell -175 to win $20--WIN
Waterson NSC--PUSH
Hardy Rd 1--LOSS
Ferguson RD 4--LOSS
Stephens ML and itd--LOSS
Cruz Dec--LOSS
Luque itd--WIN
Price Rd 1--LOSS
Spann itd and Rd 1--LOSS
Alvey Rd 1--LOSS

I added Ngannou rd 1 and Pettis dec last minute which were wins, the Pettis dec at nice odds. But also added Waterson dec and Gaethje rds 1 and 2 which were losses.

Not a stellar night, gonna try to to cap some Wed fights and see if I can do better.

 

[GigaOuts]

A good friend of my say flat earther is the dumbest mofo on earth with mental illness.

I am a flat earther with mental illness, I click mouse for living .....lol.


nice 2g cdn win for the main event.

 

[Saint_of_Killers]

7 bet parlay: $25 bet pays out $1032
Cejudo over Cruz
Kattar over Stephens
Hardy over De Castro
Pettis over Cerrone
Under 1.5 rounds for Ngannou vs Rozenstruik
Over 2.5 rounds for Ferguson vs Gaethje
Over 1.5 rounds for Price vs Luque

I like swinging for the fences, but im cheap.

This parlay hitting was all that got me over Tony losing. Nice win.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

This parlay hitting was all that got me over Tony losing. Nice win.

Very impressive parlay result, congrats!