UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th) Official Bets

[BigDramaShow26]

Like, 7 submissions on the whole card? Interesting

Has this ever happened before? And where can I get a prop on over 3.5 or 4.5? Because I do think there will be at least 4 subs on this card.

 

[BigSteve]

Has this ever happened before? And where can I get a prop on over 3.5 or 4.5? Because I do think there will be at least 4 subs on this card.

There was a crazy armbar card, think the Femaler Tuff finale. Cant remember how many

 

[TrueAscension]

And where can I get a prop on over 3.5 or 4.5? Because I do think there will be at least 4 subs on this card.

5d

 

[Sono07]

Looks like I'll probably miss most of the main card due to work. Bending a couple of my own rules but times are strange.

●Ngannou 1.5u for .5u
●Gaethje 1u for 1.5u
●Stephens +3 1/2 1.5u for 1.25u

Parlays

●Souza NSC (Canceled)+ Luque NSC 3u for 3.5u
●Ngannou NSC + Cejudo NSC 4u for 3u

*Adding a bit more
●Cerrone +3 1/2 & ME doesn't start r5
1.5u for 1.5u
●Nganno+ Cejudo+ Hardy 1u for 2u
●Ferguson+ Cejudo+ Spann 2u for 3.25u
●Ferguson+ Hardy+ Vettori+ Smith
1.5u for 7.75u

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

1.5u Esparza ML (-150) to win 1u
1.38u Werdum ITD (-138) to win 1u
1u Rozenstruik (+240) to win 2.4u

0.5u Hardy via Decision (+260) to win 1.3u
0.5u Mitchell ML + Ferguson ML to win 0.77u

0.25u Stephens ML (+200) to win 0.5u
0.25u Ngannou Round 1 (+187) to win 0.47u
0.25u Rozenstruik via Decision (+700) to win 1.75u
0.25u Cerrone via Decision (+375) to win 0.94u

0.15u Hardy Round 1 (+300) to win 0.45u
0.15u Oleinik Round 1 (+800) to win 1.2u
0.15u Gaethje Round 1 (+700) to win 1.05u
0.15u Gaethje Round 2 (+900) to win 1.35u
0.15u Gaethje Round 3 (+1400) to win 2.1u
0.15u Ferguson Round 3 (+750) to win 1.12u
0.15u Ferguson Round 4 (+1200) to win 1.8u
0.15u Ferguson Round 5 (+1800) to win 2.7u

0.07u Pettis Round 1 (+400) to win 0.28u
0.05u Alvey via KO/Sub (+550) to win 0.27u
0.05u Alvey Round 1 (+1200) to win 0.6u
0.05u Rosa Round 2 (+1600) to win 0.8u
0.05u Rosa Round 3 (+2500) to win 1.25u

0.05u Cejudo Round 3 (+1200) to win 0.6u
0.05u Cejudo Round 4 (+1600) to win 0.8u
0.05u Cejudo Round 5 (+2500) to win 1.25u

0.05u Ferguson Round 3 via KO (+1400) to win 0.7u
0.05u Ferguson Round 4 via KO (+2000) to win 1u
0.05u Ferguson Round 5 via KO (+3300) to win 1.65u
0.05u Ferguson Round 3 via Sub (+1400) to win 0.7u
0.05u Ferguson Round 4 via Sub (+2000) to win 1u
0.05u Ferguson Round 5 via Sub (+2800) to win 1.4u

Not going big on any 1 play this time around, easing my way back in to things after a long break with a bigger focus on live-betting for the first return of cards. Also playing more props than I usually do as there's too many juiced favorites on this card, and I just want to have a little extra fun seeing how many of them hit. Hoping things go decently with the addition of live-betting and then continue the momentum into the next 2 cards coming soon, where I'll try and find more fighters to straight bet. GL everyone!

 

[mkess101]

Well...it's been a MINUTE since I posted any actual bets in here...feels weird. Not gonna get rich with my limits but this is still fun, I need these cards to happen during this shutdown. I'm going a little nuts.

So far I've got:

Werdum itd -141 to win $20
Werdum rd 1 +190 for $20
Werdum sub +475 for $20
Ferguson itd -115 to win $20
Ferguson rd 3 +800 for $20
Pettis -150 to win $20
Pettis itd +245 for $20
Ngannou itd -140 to win $20
Mitchell dec +150 for $20
Mitchell -175 to win $20

Added

Waterson NSC
Hardy Rd 1
Ferguson RD 4
Stephens ML and itd
Cruz Dec
Luque itd
Price Rd 1
Spann itd and Rd 1
Alvey Rd 1

 

[TheFightGame]

$100 - Pettis TKO/KO ( + 185 )

 

[RichB5868]

12 on Ngannou by Sub to win 108
Balling

 

[bombadii]

My 3 piece

Gaethje
Thay guy who's fighting Hardy
Cruz

<mma2>

No regerts.

 

[matthew55]

@Sadistics any thoughts? favorite bets?

 

[ChoKuRei]

$39 to win $585. Feel good about all except Rozenstruik. Think he has a chance but A lot of these kickboxers don’t seem to do great coming over when they face top guys. We will see

 

[GigaOuts]

View attachment 766995
$39 to win $585. Feel good about all except Rozenstruik. Think he has a chance but A lot of these kickboxers don’t seem to do great coming over when they face top guys. We will see

I must having a false memory, I though I remember you bet in the thousand before.

 

[hugdeeznuts]

I'm so sick of betting on obscure low level soccer games from countries I barely knew existed that I'm max betting the whole card, money ain't shit

Tony itd
Hardy -3.5
Cruz
Francis -3.5
Calvin by dec
Pettis
Werdum itd
Michelle
Rosa
Luque/Spann

 

[Sadistics]

Ferguson ITD -105 $800
Ferguson RD3 +800 $60
Ferguson RD4 +1000 $40
Gaethje KO +300 $50

Cruz +200 $300
Cruz DEC +305 $250
Cruz/Cejudo GTD -161 $350

Ngannou -240 $800

Kattar/Stephens O2.5 -145 $200
Kattar/Stephens GTD -142 $300

Luque RD2 +600 $60

Hardy/Castro O1.5 -125 $400
Hardy DEC +296 $150

Pettis -110 $275

Werdum -163 $209

Esparza -117 $1200
Esparza/Waterson GTD -369 $800

Mitchell -167 $500
Mitchell/Rosa GTD -145 $300

Alvey/Spann O1.5 -120 $300

Keeping things real small with all the uncertainty around training. Not liking the Mitchell bet, will be looking to reduce on LB. Livebet overall should be great, with availability and liquidity better than we've ever seen in MMA

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Ferguson ITD -105 $800
Ferguson RD3 +800 $60
Ferguson RD4 +1000 $40
Gaethje KO +300 $50

Cruz +200 $300
Cruz DEC +305 $250
Cruz/Cejudo GTD -161 $350

Ngannou -240 $800

Kattar/Stephens O2.5 -145 $200
Kattar/Stephens GTD -142 $300

Luque RD2 +600 $60

Hardy/Castro O1.5 -125 $400
Hardy DEC +296 $150

Pettis -110 $275

Werdum -163 $209

Esparza -117 $1200
Esparza/Waterson GTD -369 $800

Mitchell -167 $500
Mitchell/Rosa GTD -145 $300

Alvey/Spann O1.5 -120 $300

Keeping things real small with all the uncertainty around training. Not liking the Mitchell bet, will be looking to reduce on LB. Livebet overall should be great, with availability and liquidity better than we've ever seen in MMA

We're on pretty much the same things makes me feel a little more confident. GL!

 

[DevilsPt2]

Pettis -130 1u

Cruz +200 0.5u

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Taped a record 8 fights for this card! Waterson-Esparza, Oleynik-Werdum, Hardy-de Castro, and Pettis-Cerrone 2 were all no-bets, Jacare-Hall was sadly canceled, and I'm still mulling over Rosa vs. Mitchell. In the meantime,

3.5u on Gaethje at +160 (might odd, especially with the crazy odds available now)
2u on Rozenstruik at +245
1u on Rozenstruik-N'Gannou GTD at +250

 

[GigaOuts]

You win Sadistic, I will send you $100 usd in btc. Give me your btc address. Will sent after event, before Sunday.

 

[migeru29]

post 'em

Where are yours ?

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Taped a record 8 fights for this card! Waterson-Esparza, Oleynik-Werdum, Hardy-de Castro, and Pettis-Cerrone 2 were all no-bets, Jacare-Hall was sadly canceled, and I'm still mulling over Rosa vs. Mitchell. In the meantime,

3.5u on Gaethje at +160 (might odd, especially with the crazy odds available now)
2u on Rozenstruik at +245
1u on Rozenstruik-N'Gannou GTD at +250

Added 0.5u on Gaethje at +200.

In terms of live-bets, put 1u on Oleynik at -160 after round 2 to win 0.6u, then put 0.3u at Cerrone at +120 after round 2, both of which were good value to end with the modest +0.3u from that.

In retrospect, should have put even more on Gaethje and also waited for the absurdly stupid +210 price at the end, but hey, how can one predict such line movement when I capped Gaethje as an outright favorite in my analysis and figured other sharp bettors would pick up on it? (I think I capped Gaethje like -140 or so, although he far exceeded that with his performance, obviously)

Oddly, I don't feel bad for losing 3u on the Rozenstruik fight. N'Gannou fought the complete opposite of how he approached the Lewis fight, and put himself in grave danger of losing by doing so, as I noted, getting clipped twice by Bigi Boy before he hit him for the first time. Of course, that first connect was all he needed. Even with that loss, both Bigi Boy and N'Gannou are among the two biggest money-making machines for me in all of MMA betting.

Ended +3.9u for the night.