UFC 247 Jones vs Reyes

Vir_Ars said:
Krause is 188m and Giles 182m, So Krause is bigger, just a half inch reach difference and Krause is a long way better grappler than Giles and Giles loves to grapple against better competition and get sub.
Krause got a own gym with legit training parnerts, Giles got a full time job and never a good gameplan.
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Krause is taller, he is certainly not bigger or else they would be in the same weight class. Krause has fought a lot of his career as low as 155, Giles debut at 205. Krause came in under the MW limit at 183.5, Giles will likely have at least 20 lbs on him tonight. Giles does put himself in bad situations grappling and could easily dive into a guillotine here, but he has a speed and big power advantage standing, isn't coming in on a day notice, so likely has better cardio here, and is the better offensive wrestler. Krause has 0 guard subs. Feels like people are capping this fight as if they were both the same weight class and that Krause will come in as sharp and conditioned as he normally would with a full camp.
 
Oblivian said:
Krause was active in the WEC/Strikeforce grappling tournament recently. He even snagged the guillotine on King Mo. I don't think the short notice thing hurts a guy like him much who is always in shape and always around the fight game. The size difference is a valid point, but man, Cummings was only one fight removed from WW himself. I just don't think the stylistic matchup is in his favor at all. Krause will make him work throughout, and I really think Giles needs a good gameplan here which he doesn't have the luxury of practicing.
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That is true but Cummins was always a huge WW, while Krause only recently moved up from LW. Prior to the move up he was getting knocked around the cage by a low tier LW in Alex White by the 3rd round after needing to wrestle the first two. I like Krause, he is well rounded, high iq, etc, but it really feels like he went from being underrated to overrated after beating very flawed fighters in Warley and Sergio. I was hoping to play Krause as a firm dog here, but as a fav? No chance. Not sure how you can be confident he is going to have a cardio advantage here.
 
Alright guys, I will confess I am a pussy. I was planning to bet $700 on Reyes. However, I watched so much tape and read so many reviews, that I have decided to chicken out and avoid losing $700. I figured, $700 plus a little cash gets me vacation in Thailand. I just got back from one and it is a decent vacation if you like party and everything that comes along. Anyway, not gonna bore you. I put $50 on Jones vs Reyes to be a draw +8000. It is a degen bet, but fuck it. What if.... And then, a loss on this bet is 99%, so here is hoping the fight is a draw!
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Anyone betting on Youssef Zala thoughts on him? he seems to have legit chance. I am also betting Jones sub win.
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I never finished taping the two but I really can’t see how this isn’t a 50/50 fight
 
Late thoughts, Re: Ige/Bektic

I picked Mirsad to win and I’m sticking with it. That Ige dec +450 had major value but deep down I just feel like Mirsad will win. He’s got gassing issues due to the fact that he’s so fucking tense when he’s in there and it’s really a mental thing. If he can get that anxiety out of his mind, relax his muscles a bit, his skills translate a whole lot better and I view him as another mini Cain Velasquez with his ability to generate GnP from every position possible. Reminiscent of Volkanovski’s GnP.

Bektic is the pick here and I think he wins by decision.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Sucks that Krause didn't open as the dog considering less than 24hr notice and Giles is the bigger guy. Agreed though I think Krause wins, unfortunately still not available in my bookie so he'll be steamed by the time he does probably.

edit: just as I say that they've added him at -138. Will likely play that but want his ITD prop still waiting on it. Easy submission for Krause.
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Hey bro...if you come across tickets later send them my way!

Also...imo don't load up TOO big on black beast itd. Yes, I think the most likely outcome is that he starches Ilir. BUT...I honestly question BB's motivation a lot. He made a big chunk of change for that short notice title shot vs DC and has had horrible back problems for years. He's made a habit of coming back after being behind in fights but IF (big "if") Latifi stuns him I seriously question if Derrick will dig deep like he has in the past.
 
ill800 said:
I never finished taping the two but I really can’t see how this isn’t a 50/50 fight
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It's not a 50/50 fight. There are a lot of unknowns about Lingo, and he may have a thousand flaws covered up by his last 3 quick finishes, but...he has some of the most impressive boxing I've seen in all of MMA. (Seriously)

Zalal, by contrast, we know a lot about. He has solid cardio, very average wrestling, okay but flawed jits, and very rudimentary, mediocre striking that he has only developed in his last couple of fights. Oh, and his defense is very flawed.

There is a good chance Lingo massacres Zalal in 30 seconds, and even if he doesn't, how does Zalal win? Presumably if Lingo's grappling sucks, but that's pure conjecture. The little bit that we do know about Lingo's grappling (BJJ purple belt, trains at Fortis, hit a nice palm-to-palm RNC 2 fights ago) doesn't necessarily indicate such a hole, and again, Zalal's wrestling is very average. His two losses saw him being repeatedly taken down, including at will by Mariscal.

I'm passing on the fight due to a lack of information, but it's definitely not 50/50.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
It's not a 50/50 fight. There are a lot of unknowns about Lingo, and he may have a thousand flaws covered up by his last 3 quick finishes, but...he has some of the most impressive boxing I've seen in all of MMA. (Seriously)

Zalal, by contrast, we know a lot about. He has solid cardio, very average wrestling, okay but flawed jits, and very rudimentary, mediocre striking that he has only developed in his last couple of fights. Oh, and his defense is very flawed.

There is a good chance Lingo massacres Zalal in 30 seconds, and even if he doesn't, how does Zalal win? Presumably if Lingo's grappling sucks, but that's pure conjecture. The little bit that we do know about Lingo's grappling (BJJ purple belt, trains at Fortis, hit a nice palm-to-palm RNC 2 fights ago) doesn't necessarily indicate such a hole, and again, Zalal's wrestling is very average. His two losses saw him being repeatedly taken down, including at will by Mariscal.

I'm passing on the fight due to a lack of information, but it's definitely not 50/50.
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If zalal uses his reach advantage and circles away from danger it’s going be a close fight.

I really liked lingos hands too but hes defensively flawed as well. extremely inexperienced. Hasn’t been in a high paced fight. Barely been out of round 1. No way I cap him at -200.

I watched one fight of zalal and about 3 of lingos

with what I know I wanted to bet lingo but I don’t even think I’d pay -140 for him in this situation. As you said there are too many unknowns

so I don’t exactly cap the fight as evens but I would have to have nice + numbers to make a play.

I did take a shot at zalal dec +475. Thought that was kind of nutty. The only real advantage I could see was the boxing and we all know this is mma.
 
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My only big bet on this card is Morono around -250 and I dont think I would play him worse then -300. My favorite underdog is Zalal around +200 but Reyes reaching +425 is going to be a bet as well. My controversial pick is a late one, Lee, she is climbing hard to -280 now. I havent played Reyes or Lee yet, I'm just going to watch the line really close for now.

I know Jones, Shevchenko, Adams and Lewis are bad bets, doesnt really matter what you paid for them, it was very likely too much. Bektic, Ewell, Pilarte, Johns and Lingo are all 50/50 to 55/45 fights, wouldnt play any as favorites. If you got Buatista better than +125, it was a good or a very good bet. Giles was probably a good bet at +125 or better but I wouldnt play him.
 
ill800 said:
If zalal uses his reach advantage and circles away from danger it’s going be a close fight.

I really liked lingos hands too but hes defensively flawed as well. extremely inexperienced. Hasn’t been in a high paced fight. Barely been out of round 1. No way I cap him at -200.

I watched one fight of zalal and about 3 of lingos
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I was actually about to ask how much you had seen of Zalal based on the "reach advantage" comment, but you answered me. (I watched his last 5 fights, for context)

In order to use a reach advantage, you need some actual boxing tools. Which Zalal lacks completely. In fact, I expect him to grapple as much as possible against Lingo, especially early, which is his bread-and-butter, and main chance of victory.

I did take a shot at zalal dec +475. Thought that was kind of nutty. The only real advantage I could see was the boxing and we all know this is mma.
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While I don't like making plays with such thin info, this is probably fine.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I was actually about to ask how much you had seen of Zalal based on the "reach advantage" comment, but you answered me. (I watched his last 5 fights, for context)

In order to use a reach advantage, you need some actual boxing tools. Which Zalal lacks completely. In fact, I expect him to grapple as much as possible against Lingo, especially early, which is his bread-and-butter, and main chance of victory.



While I don't like making plays with such thin info, this is probably fine.
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Also played lingo nsc at -195 and rd 1 at +325

the reason I mentioned range and movement is because I saw the trouble Williams gave lingo in his first pro bout. Williams is much faster than zalal but he neutralized lingos hands by circling and not getting backed against the cage
 
Krause is overrated now, if Giles loses he should probably retire. Giles might have some lackluster fight IQ but this idea Krause will easily submit him or even take him down makes little sense. Cummings was a club and sub so his only real sub loss was GM3, and everyone seems to be ignoring how he survived on the ground with Braga Neto whose a highly credentialed BJJ world champ.

Not to mention Krause is not a great striker at all, he throws lots of awkward volume with iffy defence and he does not hit hard at all. He certainly isn't on the level of someone like Cummings and getting beaten around the cage by Alex White seems to be getting ignored too. Giles is bigger, faster, hits way harder, full camp, hometown guy etc. Krause is awesome stepping up (even if it is arguably a low risk easy pay cheque...) but no way should he be close to favoured.
 
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Jordan3399 said:
Krause is overrated now, if Giles loses he should probably retire. Giles might have some lackluster fight IQ but this idea Krause will easily submit him or even take him down makes little sense. Cummings was a club and sub so his only real sub loss was GM3, and everyone seems to be ignoring how he survived on the ground with Braga Neto whose a highly credentialed BJJ world champ.

Not to mention Krause is not a great striker at all, he throws lost of awkward volume with iffy defence and he does not hit hard at all. He certainly isn't on the level of someone like Cummings and getting beaten around the cage by Alex White seems to be getting ignored too. Giles is bigger, faster, hits way harder, full camp, hometown guy etc. Krause is awesome stepping up (even if it is arguably a low risk easy pay cheque...) but no way should he be close to favoured.
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Giles already has a full time job now so what would be he fighting for at the UFC?
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Giles already has a full time job now so what would be he fighting for at the UFC?
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$20000 win bonus? Cause he'll get cut if he loses and be getting nowhere near that kind of money elsewhere? Cause like half the roster he has the deluded belief he will be champ one day?

Idk what a Houston Police Office gets paid but I'm assuming he'd like to keep earning an extra 40k+ a year what something he presumably enjoys doing quite a bit.

You can make a similar argument with Krause who is clearly far more interested in being a coach than a fighter.
 
Rogan & Cruz and Company are complaining about the judges .... also saying the judges are BOXING judges ...

Reyes is better than Jones at BOXING


Does anyone feel comfortable betting on Reyes after this information?
 
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