UFC 246 McGregor vs Cerrone

[longway]

Never go full Kelly.

Fair point, but striking battles have far more variance than grappling battles. I feel at 1u i am being conservative.

 

[longway]

Hedge now and bet the house on Haqparast. I put $100 on him to win by KO in his last fight with Joaqim Silva who was 11-0 before being KO'd by Haqparast. Nasrat is a legit contender at LW and is coming for the top 10 soon enough. Nasrat will be my largest bet of the fight.

Nasrat has big power, but r1 was v close. I gave silva the edge. I will want to arb for sure. Arbing +250 is way better than arbing +200.

I am considering a cheeky sub prop for nasrat too.

 

[Jordan3399]

Not really seeing the Haqparast value either, he's the rightful fav but has clear holes in his game Dober can exploit. Gouti won a round when he pushed him back and showed he's not nearly as effective trying to fight on the backfoot. Plus the way he comes crashing forward throwing a lot of looping shots can leave him open up the middle, and Dober has solid power that he doesn't want to be running into.

Not planning on betting Dober atm but feel the line value is long gone on Haqparast.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Not really seeing the Haqparast value either, he's the rightful fav but has clear holes in his game Dober can exploit. Gouti won a round when he pushed him back and showed he's not nearly as effective trying to fight on the backfoot. Plus the way he comes crashing forward throwing a lot of looping shots can leave him open up the middle, and Dober has solid power that he doesn't want to be running into.

Not planning on betting Dober atm but feel the line value is long gone on Haqparast.

I'm sure the ITD props for Haqparast will be decent. -275 is a bit expensive but I believe the line is accurate. Hoping some Dober fans start throwing money on him to get us a better price on Nasrat. Even if he stays at -275, I still plan on putting 3.5u on him.

 

[Jordan3399]

I'm sure the ITD props for Haqparast will be decent. -275 is a bit expensive but I believe the line is accurate. Hoping some Dober fans start throwing money on him to get us a better price on Nasrat. Even if he stays at -275, I still plan on putting 7u on him.

Striking matches like this normally have a ton of variance, to justify a bet now you'd need to cap him at like -350 and in this kind of match up that just isn't really justifiable at all in most situations. Not sure what scale or unit size system you use but betting 7u on something like that seems a bit reckless imo.

Definitely wouldn't bet his ITD line on top, those kinds of lines are typically -EV as it is with guys overestimating the chance of a finish. Plus if you're already betting 7u at -275, you're only profiting 2.5u on what for most is over a maxbet. If Haq goes to a dec (like he has in 3 of his last 4) and you bet ITD you're slimming down that profit margin to the point where it's just a really bad bet.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Striking matches like this normally have a ton of variance, to justify a bet now you'd need to cap him at like -350 and in this kind of match up that just isn't really justifiable at all in most situations. Not sure what scale or unit size system you use but betting 7u on something like that seems a bit reckless imo.

Definitely wouldn't bet his ITD line on top, those kinds of lines are typically -EV as it is with guys overestimating the chance of a finish. Plus if you're already betting 7u at -275, you're only profiting 2.5u on what for most is over a maxbet. If Haq goes to a dec (like he has in 3 of his last 4) and you bet ITD you're slimming down that profit margin to the point where it's just a really bad bet.

Thanks man, appreciate the honesty. Will definitely bet either the prop or Nasrat straight up and I will cut my bet in half. I've been betting pretty strict these days, not making the same mistakes I was 6 months ago and you're right, this is too large of a bet for someone like Haqparast this early in his career especially at these odds.

 

[PuertoRican]

Be careful. Tropic Thunder advice applies when it comes to Kelly Criterion.

Never go full Kelly.

It's way too aggressive and even if you are 100% perfect with your implied odd forecasting, variance might still wipe you out with a few losses in a row. Right now, I'm around 1/3rd Kellly and, even then, it'll recommend some % bets that I feel very uncomfortable with.

I love this post.

Fair point, but striking battles have far more variance than grappling battles. I feel at 1u i am being conservative.

Agreed.

Not really seeing the Haqparast value either, he's the rightful fav but has clear holes in his game Dober can exploit. Gouti won a round when he pushed him back and showed he's not nearly as effective trying to fight on the backfoot. Plus the way he comes crashing forward throwing a lot of looping shots can leave him open up the middle, and Dober has solid power that he doesn't want to be running into.

Not planning on betting Dober atm but feel the line value is long gone on Haqparast.

Agreed.

I'm sure the ITD props for Haqparast will be decent. -275 is a bit expensive but I believe the line is accurate. Hoping some Dober fans start throwing money on him to get us a better price on Nasrat. Even if he stays at -275, I still plan on putting 3.5u on him.

I don't like the ITD like for this fight. Win or lose, Dober usually has good game plans.

Striking matches like this normally have a ton of variance, to justify a bet now you'd need to cap him at like -350 and in this kind of match up that just isn't really justifiable at all in most situations. Not sure what scale or unit size system you use but betting 7u on something like that seems a bit reckless imo.

Definitely wouldn't bet his ITD line on top, those kinds of lines are typically -EV as it is with guys overestimating the chance of a finish. Plus if you're already betting 7u at -275, you're only profiting 2.5u on what for most is over a maxbet. If Haq goes to a dec (like he has in 3 of his last 4) and you bet ITD you're slimming down that profit margin to the point where it's just a really bad bet.

Great post.

 

[Yotsuya]

He is a southpaw like Nasrat, so no advantage for either.

Dober is 1-3 against other southpoles. Haqparast is 1-0. I haven’t watched tape, but my impression, is that meat and potatoes fighter like Dober loses more when he does not have sp advantage.

 

[Gugabe]

Dober is 1-3 against other southpoles. Haqparast is 1-0. I haven’t watched tape, but my impression, is that meat and potatoes fighter like Dober loses more when he does not have sp advantage.

Dariush indeed put a Southpaw striking masterclass on Dober when he took him down and got a comeback submission. I mean Dober's lost to Southpaws, but I'd argue it's never really been due to getting outstruck by them.

 

[Yotsuya]

Dariush indeed put a Southpaw striking masterclass on Dober when he took him down and got a comeback submission. I mean Dober's lost to Southpaws, but I'd argue it's never really been due to getting outstruck by them.

I remember that he got outwrestled by Hein, so I thought other sp’s might throw off his tdd a bit. But yeah, not I’m not sure at all there’s any substance in my sp. vs. sp. thought.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Watched several Dober fights. He only loses as his TDD is lousy. For example, he was outstriking Dariush by a significant margin in R1.

He is a southpaw like Nasrat, so no advantage for either. I dont think the reach advantage means much unless Nasrat can manage range effectively, i havent seen him do that.

Nasrat has big power in his left, there is a power differential that is a significant factor here. Dober uses both hands to deliver strong combinations after trapping his opponent against the cage. He has done that every fight i watched.

Not denying Nasrat striking pedigree, but he is not elusive like anderson in his prime. This is going to be a fire fight, and Dober has a solid chin, nasrat needs to go for more TDs than normal to justify these odds. There should be a big artitrage opp LB if betting Dober now too imo as nasrat is a slow starter.

Yes, if Nasrat us showing things we haven't seen yet, then the odds might be justified, but i literally cant bet on that. Though the widened odds make me concerned people know something i dont.

According to Kelly criterion, at +200 Dober is worth 1u if he has 34% chance of winning.

I felt the value was in Dober's line, and now its widened, i am gutted. Its a big difference in money.

He was having success standing up because Dariush has a shit chin. It was still even-ish in terms of total strikes landed, and Nasrat is a better striker than Dariush

And most of the other guys he has faced just aren't good in any capacity. Nasrat is definitely the best striker he has faced thus far, and Dariush is the only opponent in a similar tier to Nasrat.

And you always need to give possibility that a young 24 year old who has already proven to be pretty good can improve. 24 year olds get better on average and 31 year olds don't.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Merry christmas to you guys !!!

 

[longway]

He was having success standing up because Dariush has a shit chin. It was still even-ish in terms of total strikes landed, and Nasrat is a better striker than Dariush

Just re-watched and don't agree with you at all. Dober was getting thru with the better and cleaner strikes. Dariush had to keep clinching as he was being outstruck, even outside the exchange where got wobbled. Dariush is known as the pressure fighter but was the one getting crowded with his back to the cage and by the end of the round, he was flat-footed and tired. Dober out-landed Dariush in sig and total strikes in R1 as well.

I'm not knocking Nasrat, and think he is the favourite, but the odds are too wide as Dober is being unfairly discounted. Also, I am pretty sure I can arb this fight live unless of course Nasrat gets a quick KO, but Nasrat usually takes time to make his reads and Dober is a handful with a solid chin.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Just re-watched and don't agree with you at all. Dober was getting thru with the better and cleaner strikes. Dariush had to keep clinching as he was being outstruck, even outside the exchange where got wobbled. Dariush is known as the pressure fighter but was the one getting crowded with his back to the cage and by the end of the round, he was flat-footed and tired. Dober out-landed Dariush in sig and total strikes in R1 as well.

I'm not knocking Nasrat, and think he is the favourite, but the odds are too wide as Dober is being unfairly discounted. Also, I am pretty sure I can arb this fight live unless of course Nasrat gets a quick KO, but Nasrat usually takes time to make his reads and Dober is a handful with a solid chin.

Cerrone has a higher chance to win than Dober. Nasrat should win quite easily this fight, I give him 95% chance to win.

 

[Blockbets]

If conor has a solid Rd 1 and cowboy survives I would imagine you would get some really high live odds for cowboy.

Be careful. Tropic Thunder advice applies when it comes to Kelly Criterion.

Never go full Kelly.

It's way too aggressive and even if you are 100% perfect with your implied odd forecasting, variance might still wipe you out with a few losses in a row. Right now, I'm around 1/3rd Kellly and, even then, it'll recommend some % bets that I feel very uncomfortable with.

good to see someone using kelly. i tend to cap my edge at 5%-10% to keep it under control and to avoid turning bets -ev. thats the max i will bet up to. its not actually that bad unless you are betting big favs where it recommends very large bets. so i tone it down with the big favs and maybe use a fraction like you mention. but i have no problem going full kelly 10u on an even money fight. you have to be so sure you are right about your edge to bet 40u or whatever on a big fav its just best to take a fraction and be safe

 

[Jordan3399]

Think there's a good chance that Roxy ends up being an early entry for the line of the year.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Think there's a good chance that Roxy ends up being an early entry for the line of the year.

 

[Jordan3399]

You think Barber should be -1000?

 

[Gugabe]

Like if Roxanne can just hit takedowns here, she could be the actual hindsight favorite. Fight like this is probably going to look like a mismatch deending on whether Roxanne can get her down or not.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

You think Barber should be -1000?

Askren is her personal wrestling coach he doesn't really work with anyone else anymore, her tdd held up in previous fight and she'll smoke Roxanne. -1000 isn't wide enough as wiktoruspro loves to say she has 95% chance to win.