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UFC 241 Cormier vs Miocic II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    This is such a stretch to fit a narrative

    You can just as easily say Pettis is a different kicker than the kickers who gave Diaz issues, and he is far worse than his prime self as his kicks havent been particularly effective recently.
     
  2. Pettis is mostly a better kicker than the guys that gave him trouble with leg kicks though (despite RDA). Conor is not some Muay Thai genius. He is known for his punches and body kicks, not for his leg kicks. Conor had a lot of success with basic leg kicks. No oblique or fancy kicks.

    Pettis wasn’t able to outkick Tony or Wonderboy. No shame in that and about the out of prime thing, we don’t know where Nate is that. He is a punching bag who comes back after 3 years. Guys whose main skill is to walk forward lose that strength with age as we saw with Clay Guida 2 days ago. Nate could look good for sure but he could also look like shit. At least we know what to expect from Pettis and I do believe current Pettis is capable of beating the last Nate Diaz we saw.
     
  3. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    People might not see it this way but in my opinion Pettis looks for ways out of fights. He tapped and quit to a body triangle, then he quit on the stool with a broken hand which wasn't broken.

    He is hit and miss at the moment, win one lose one and all the losses are coming to step ups in competition, loss to Holloway, beat Jim Miller, lose to Dustin beat Chiesa. There's no doubt he's lost a step and is in a decline. Pettis has peaked and peaked a while a go.

    I'd say the closest thing we've seen to the Diaz fight is when he fought Holloway, a volume punches who comes forward and pressures constantly. Now Diaz isn't the striker that Holloway is, doesn't have the footwork or movement and Holloway threw more kicks on that fight that usual. I don't think Diaz will do that, but he will take the centre, throw a lot of low power punches and accumulate damage over the rounds. Holloway got Pettis out of there in 3 and did it mainly with boxing. Holloway was also stronger in the cliche than Pettis and was able to push him back to the cage a few times, in a situation where Pettis should have had the strength and size advantage since was coming down in weight.

    The time off will be good for Diaz I think, he might have some rust but he's also going to have healed all his injuries, rested his rattled brain, ge has the frame for welter weight and should have grown into it.

    He's got the reach advantage, cardio advantage, doesn't quit in fights, should be the bigger stronger guy. Where does the advantage lie for Pettis? Just in the kicks?
     
  4. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Of course he’s capable of winning. Gugabe was saying he should be -300. That’s a big difference.
     
  5. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    +350 Diaz is capable of homer simpsoning his way to a close decision, but he's probably gonna get teed off on at will to an embarassing, one-sided stoppage or decision. Pettis is probably one of the hardest kickers in UFC history, Diaz doesn't have the grappling pressure game that's been effective against him lately, and he's been out for 3 years. Pettis also doesn't have Conor's massive stamina issues, or even Michael Johnson's.
     
  6. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Diaz is a pretty mediocre fighter. He was always physically weak with no power, wrestling and weak defence. He only ever fought at 170 because he couldn't be bothered to cut weight. The only decent guys he ever beat were Cerrone, Michael Johnson and Conor and that was more down to them fighting like idiots than anything getting into sloppy boxing matches.

    If you watch any of his fights against top guys who didn't just try and swing at him in boxing matches like RDA, Benson, MacDonald, Thompson etc. He gets his ass kicked and manhandled. There's a reason Pettis was running the LW division and Diaz was a journeymen.
     
  7. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Pettis doesn't have nearly their reach, boxing, or output either and his kicks haven't been all that prevalent lately. You seem to have a much rosier image of Pettis than the guy I have been watching lately.
     
  8. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    And you also say that Diaz’s boxing “isnt that good”

    I’d agree about his lack of strength and wrestling.

    Not sure if Pettis is going to be able to run laps around the cage and consistently land kicks without taking damaging and gassing
     
  9. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Guys halp. I might be putting a bet on Macedo. I'm worried for my mental health.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    Pettis is 6 and 4 in his last ten and 3 of those wins are over guys who aren't in the top 10 and the win over Thompson, as much as I loved it, was a hail Mary punch, he was getting beat down right up until that punch landed.

    This is a 50/50 fight
     
  11. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    His boxing really isn't that good. He has no power, relies on his length and his only real defence is a basic high guard. It's been effective vs guys with a reach disadvantage who just head hunt aggressively but there's nothing particularly great about it and its got a lot of holes.

    Pettis doesn't really need to run laps, Diaz will need to constantly pressure to force Pettis out of kick range and be eating punishment the whole time he does it. He's definitely got the taller order having to stick to a gameplan for 15 minutes in order to hopefully edge a dec.
     
  12. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Don't do it bro. Viana has a big reach advantage and is taking a step down from her last two opponents who were super close fights. You are just hoping that Macedo randomly learned to not suck, which is a big risk
     
  13. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    And Diaz is 3-4 in the last 7 years with those wins being Conor McGasshard, the ghost of Gray Maynard and Johnson who was winning before going full retard. I'm not even sure I'd pick Diaz over guys like Chiesa nowadays. Good chance he just gets manhandled for 15 minutes.
     
  14. You know what ? I'm gonna say it.... Nate is barely a top 10 fighter at 155 in 2019. For sure not at 170.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Bro how did you get video of me.
     
  16. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    Yeah so that shakes out to roughly a 50/50 fight, like I said.

    Pettis broke his hand in the Holloway fight, broke his rib in the Dustin fight, broke his hand again in the Ferguson fight... He's either fragile or making excuses looking for a way out, but I've never seen him with a cast on his arm...

    Pettis tends to fade after round one these days, where as Nate is known to build up steam. If Pettis is ahead and having success after round one I think he will keep that momentum going, but if he doesn't have a great first round he will be done and Nate will take over and could even finish as the rounds go on.
     
  17. Sorry, it's everywhere online man...

     
  18. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Yeah I just think Macedo is more athletic and is actually the better striker lol. Both have suspect gas tanks and I think Poly is gonna have grappling success up a weight class for the first time seeing how her wrestling is almost non existant and jiu jitsu might be overrated. Mundial champ credits haven't really translated into the cage imo.

    Noooooooo. My life is over :(
     
  19. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Macedo has worse reach and output, and strikers often get a boost moving up a weight class. Viana KO'd Ribas at 115, she may get a bit of pop at 125.

    Her BJJ may be a non-factor yet again, but it's nice to have in the back pocket at least. Especially if she has enough power to score a knockdown.
     
  20. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Gugabe is really riling up the crowd post stostic debacle lol i love it

    I lean team pettis here for the record
     

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