UFC 240 Holloway vs Edgar

The Robertson/Frota fight has me all kinds of confused.

Imho, BOTH make for strong fade material in the future.

Against eachother, I can't ignore how bad Frota's tdd was against Souza, who, I do not rate very highly.

Neither girl here is very athletic imo.

Robertson is going to land takedowns, but is she going to find a sub? Probably not.

Robertson needs to SECURE takedowns and win rounds in top position.

It is really concerning that she got swept by Macedo a couple of times in her last fight, because I am convinced that Macedo's grappling sucks.

HOWEVER, Roberton is 24 years old, is very focused on getting better, and she trains at fookin ATT full time.

I still think that Robertson is likely going to win a decision, but if she pulls some of that BS she did in the Macedo fight, then this can get very dicey for her.
 
Max no KO power, will get taken down eventually and wrestlefucked
 
After watching some tape, i agree that there may be some value on frankie. Still, his price isn't attractive enough for me. No play on the ME, maybe 3 bucks on frankie for the lols or FGTD but that's it.
 
IMO Gillian Robertson's only way to win is if Frota accepts bottom position and Robertson survives. I think Frota should be a clear favorite here. She has many paths to victory and I personally think she's at least a level above Robertson. Lines are skewed because Robertson has tapped three low-level fighters while in the UFC and Frota was taken down by Livinha, who is a much better fighter/wrestler/grappler than Robertson.

Frota via MS13.
 
edole said:
The Robertson/Frota fight has me all kinds of confused.

Imho, BOTH make for strong fade material in the future.

Against eachother, I can't ignore how bad Frota's tdd was against Souza, who, I do not rate very highly.

Neither girl here is very athletic imo.

Robertson is going to land takedowns, but is she going to find a sub? Probably not.

Robertson needs to SECURE takedowns and win rounds in top position.

It is really concerning that she got swept by Macedo a couple of times in her last fight, because I am convinced that Macedo's grappling sucks.

HOWEVER, Roberton is 24 years old, is very focused on getting better, and she trains at fookin ATT full time.

I still think that Robertson is likely going to win a decision, but if she pulls some of that BS she did in the Macedo fight, then this can get very dicey for her.
Click to expand...
I hope her coaches have drilled into her 'position over submission.' Frota will be fine on the bottom, letting minutes go by, using rubber guard or whatever, as long as Robertson can stick with a top heavy plan of throwing the odd punch and not forcing subs she'll win rounds.
 
And said:
IMO Gillian Robertson's only way to win is if Frota accepts bottom position and Robertson survives. I think Frota should be a clear favorite here. She has many paths to victory and I personally think she's at least a level above Robertson. Lines are skewed because Robertson has tapped three low-level fighters while in the UFC and Frota was taken down by Livinha, who is a much better fighter/wrestler/grappler than Robertson.

Frota via MS13.
Click to expand...
Livinha is much better than Robertson? Debatable. But she was WAY smaller than Frota and got her down so easily while she had the energy for it.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Livinha is much better than Robertson? Debatable. But she was WAY smaller than Frota and got her down so easily while she had the energy for it.
Click to expand...

I believe that Livinha is much better than her. I would definitely bet on Livinha against Robertson at evens.

Robertson will also be smaller than Frota, although the size difference will not be as dramatic as with Livinha, and I don't think that she's automatically going to win just because of a takedown, I think there's a high probability of a submission or a sweep. Robertson was tapped out in someone's guard not to long ago.

I understand that it might look like Robertson is a beast grappler that could hang with Frota, but I doubt it and think that she only looked good because of the level of her opponents ground games.

I think there's a discrepancy in their levels on the ground, but I agree with you that if Frota is content playing rubber guard on the bottom, she might lose.

So far I'm just going of memory but I'll tape the fight thoroughly shortly.
 
Last edited:
And said:
IMO Gillian Robertson's only way to win is if Frota accepts bottom position and Robertson survives. I think Frota should be a clear favorite here. She has many paths to victory and I personally think she's at least a level above Robertson. Lines are skewed because Robertson has tapped three low-level fighters while in the UFC and Frota was taken down by Livinha, who is a much better fighter/wrestler/grappler than Robertson.

Frota via MS13.
Click to expand...

Is there a fight somewhere I can watch where Frota looked impressive?

I thought she looked awful against Souza, albeit in her ufc debut.
 
edole said:
Is there a fight somewhere I can watch where Frota looked impressive?

I thought she looked awful against Souza, albeit in her ufc debut.
Click to expand...
KOing Araujo she looked half decent
 
Of course there is 'value' on Edgar and Spencer but at what point and you just saying fuck it and betting every dog? There's going to be some value in every big underdog.

Frankie's current odds give him an implied probability of about 25%... So yeah there's value, you can beat the bookies if you think Frankie has 30% chance or more of winning, but that is just nonsense.

You don't win a bet because Edgar does 10% better than the bookies expected but still loses... Anyone giving Edgar a chance is basically saying he can wrestle fuck Holloway, and they are basing this on 'We haven't seen Holloway tested by a good wrestler in years', so? Why does that create value? That's just a blind guess. We haven't seen his ttd so it must be shit!

Plus people keep talking about Frankie's chain wrestling, but is he a chain wrestler recently? He's more of a reactive shot wrestler, he mixes his take downs in with his striking, he will duck under a punch and shoot a double. When did he last chain a take down, or push someone to the cage after a failed shot and work for a take down from there? And then when did he last do that against someone we know had good ttd? Frankie stands and strikes more than anything now, and if someone has good footwork and movement he hardly has a chance at a shot, look at the Aldo fights. Aldo isn't fighting off aggressive chained takedowns, he's just moving and pivoting off and leaving Frankie stood there looking stupid.

Frankie is small, old and has recently had his chin cracked. Holloway has youth, size, speed, accuracy, range all on his side.

I would say if you are looking for a dog with value on this card, although this is just as unlikely, bet Spencer. At least Spencer hasn't recently been KO'ed, has youth on her side and is fighting someone coming off of a KO loss.
 
edole said:
Is there a fight somewhere I can watch where Frota looked impressive?

I thought she looked awful against Souza, albeit in her ufc debut.
Click to expand...

I've seen her last four fights and there's not a single fight were I would say that she looks like an impressive fighter. Unfortunately I wasn't able to find a video of her best win, Viviane Araujo. She hits hard but brawls with bad technique. Her wrestling defence is severely lacking. Her biggest flaw according to me is her fight IQ, she doesn't seem to care about winning rounds (You'd be surprised at how many fighters who actually don't understand how the 10 point must system works). What I gathered from these fights are bits and pieces which makes me think that she should be a favorite against Robertson.

I strongly disagree that she looked awful in her last fight. I actually think that her striking looked vastly improved against Souza, she had her chin down for the first time. Her problem was the fight IQ and her tdd of course. I believe she might have lost the fight just because she pulled guard for a guillotine in the end of the first round.

The takedown Souza executed one minute into the second round, double-leg with an outside trip, is one that Robertson used against Mayra Bueno Silva. Compare the speed and smoothness of which they executed the technique, it's clear that Souza does it way faster and better, as one movement instead of two. Once the shot became slower in the third, Frota defended it quite easily. The second takedown attempt by Robertson was also much slower than her first (she had gotten tagged quite a bit on the feet) and Silva reversed the attempt into top position (but Robertson scrambled shortly thereafter to top position via a leg lock attack). Just looking at that particular technique, I'm far from convinced that Robertson gets her down that easily, and even less convinced that she does it in the later rounds (I'm aware that she has other takedowns and IMO the single-leg would probably work better for her). Even against McCann she failed a takedown attempt in the second and proceeded to trying to pull guard with the 2 on 1 wrist grab. Against Macedo as well, she failed her first takedown attempt in the second round and got reversed, but later completed a single-leg. Maybe Robertson slows down just like Souza did?

What I also got from taping them was that it's going to be a complete massacre if Robertson doesn't manage to get takedowns and keep her there, it won't be competitive on the feet.

Robertson wins this fight if Frota lets her win. People have scrambled, reversed and submitted Robertson from the bottom, but she can win if Frota is content with staying at the bottom and unfortunately I'm not sure that she's smart enough to not do so, but I think that Frota wins if they both fight to the best of their abilities.
 
Last edited:
edole said:
Is there a fight somewhere I can watch where Frota looked impressive?

I thought she looked awful against Souza, albeit in her ufc debut.
Click to expand...


Frota TKO'ing Araujo. Araujo afraid of her guard for some reason.


Frota threatening winning rd off her back against BJJ black belt and eventually getting a sub
 
ApplesVild said:
Of course there is 'value' on Edgar and Spencer but at what point and you just saying fuck it and betting every dog? There's going to be some value in every big underdog.

Frankie's current odds give him an implied probability of about 25%... So yeah there's value, you can beat the bookies if you think Frankie has 30% chance or more of winning, but that is just nonsense.

You don't win a bet because Edgar does 10% better than the bookies expected but still loses... Anyone giving Edgar a chance is basically saying he can wrestle fuck Holloway, and they are basing this on 'We haven't seen Holloway tested by a good wrestler in years', so? Why does that create value? That's just a blind guess. We haven't seen his ttd so it must be shit!

Plus people keep talking about Frankie's chain wrestling, but is he a chain wrestler recently? He's more of a reactive shot wrestler, he mixes his take downs in with his striking, he will duck under a punch and shoot a double. When did he last chain a take down, or push someone to the cage after a failed shot and work for a take down from there? And then when did he last do that against someone we know had good ttd? Frankie stands and strikes more than anything now, and if someone has good footwork and movement he hardly has a chance at a shot, look at the Aldo fights. Aldo isn't fighting off aggressive chained takedowns, he's just moving and pivoting off and leaving Frankie stood there looking stupid.

Frankie is small, old and has recently had his chin cracked. Holloway has youth, size, speed, accuracy, range all on his side.

I would say if you are looking for a dog with value on this card, although this is just as unlikely, bet Spencer. At least Spencer hasn't recently been KO'ed, has youth on her side and is fighting someone coming off of a KO loss.
Click to expand...
i'd rather bet frankie in all honesty. frankie is actually a championship calliber fighter with tons of experience, 0 quit and is still hungry. he has pulled upsets before. cyborg is looking to make a statement since it's her last fight in her contract and dana is already throwing her under the bus, she hasn't lost a step i'm telling you. nunes is simply that good. spencer isn't on that level.

i'm not playing either tho
 
theTKDguy said:
i'd rather bet frankie in all honesty. frankie is actually a championship calliber fighter with tons of experience, 0 quit and is still hungry. he has pulled upsets before. cyborg is looking to make a statement since it's her last fight in her contract and dana is already throwing her under the bus, she hasn't lost a step i'm telling you. nunes is simply that good. spencer isn't on that level.

i'm not playing either tho
Click to expand...

I'm going to parlay them both
 
Like Price at +255. I’d cap the line closer to what it opened at, much closer to a pick em for me.

And with Price’s ability to finish people out of nowhere I’d have to bet him @ +255 against everyone outside of the top15 @welter. He’ll fight for your money and put it on the line at least. Maybe value on ITD.

Also Al-Hassan is freaky. Without his legal trouble I think he’d be top15 already.
 
ApplesVild said:
Of course there is 'value' on Edgar and Spencer but at what point and you just saying fuck it and betting every dog? There's going to be some value in every big underdog.

Frankie's current odds give him an implied probability of about 25%... So yeah there's value, you can beat the bookies if you think Frankie has 30% chance or more of winning, but that is just nonsense.

You don't win a bet because Edgar does 10% better than the bookies expected but still loses... Anyone giving Edgar a chance is basically saying he can wrestle fuck Holloway, and they are basing this on 'We haven't seen Holloway tested by a good wrestler in years', so? Why does that create value? That's just a blind guess. We haven't seen his ttd so it must be shit!

Plus people keep talking about Frankie's chain wrestling, but is he a chain wrestler recently? He's more of a reactive shot wrestler, he mixes his take downs in with his striking, he will duck under a punch and shoot a double. When did he last chain a take down, or push someone to the cage after a failed shot and work for a take down from there? And then when did he last do that against someone we know had good ttd? Frankie stands and strikes more than anything now, and if someone has good footwork and movement he hardly has a chance at a shot, look at the Aldo fights. Aldo isn't fighting off aggressive chained takedowns, he's just moving and pivoting off and leaving Frankie stood there looking stupid.

Frankie is small, old and has recently had his chin cracked. Holloway has youth, size, speed, accuracy, range all on his side.

I would say if you are looking for a dog with value on this card, although this is just as unlikely, bet Spencer. At least Spencer hasn't recently been KO'ed, has youth on her side and is fighting someone coming off of a KO loss.
Click to expand...
We have seen a fair amount of Holloways TDD recently and while he's never faced a wrestler as good as Frankie we have seen him takendown by worse and we've seen other examples that indicate Frankie can get him down. For example Jeremy Stephens of all people was able to get deep in on the hips of Holloway when shooting TDs. If Frankie can get in there he has a good chance of chaining off it, hitting a bodylock and launching Max. He did the same easily on Yair and Stephens fairly recently where he ragdolled much larger fighters.

I think you're not quite getting how Frankies game works, which is fair enough as it's pretty complex, Frankie will 'shoot' a lot of TDs but with very little commitment as he can then use it as part of his overall game. It establishes the TD threat being there which he can then use as a feint to strike off or make his opponent more tentative to throw strikes. His recent fight with Cub is a great example of this where he 'shot' multiple takedowns but never really cared too much about getting them as they were merely a means by which he could outstrike Cub. In comparison when you watch the first fight with Cub, where Cub stood his ground more and was competitive striking with Frankie, Frankie really went for the takedown not just going for a single shot but shooting an initial shot then continuing off it working threw a series of them to overwhelm Cubs TDD and get him down. Also if Max does get takendown he's at a huge BJJ disadvantage. He's only a purple belt (a good one sure) but Frankies a very legit 1st Degree Black Belt with one of MMAs best top games. Similar to GDR the other week when she fought Ladd it may have been a while since we've since Max flat on his back but when he was there he was easily smothered and held down.

BJ Penn, Aldo and Ortega all followed a similar gameplan of waiting to land hard counters when Frankie came in to do well. The first 2 also had great TDD and were careful not to overextend and expose themselves to a possible TD while Ortega dangerous BJJ game made Frankie avoid it. Max doesn't have or really do either of those things well. He lacks one shot power and relies on volume and superior cardio to get finishes which also relies on being able to move forward, you see how he struggles a lot more on the backfoot with Poirier and Aldo (first couple rounds) where once he was pushed back and pressured he was wide open for big shots or for a TD threat. The only guys that had success pressuring Franke were much bigger wrestlers at 155 like Veach or Maynard who just bullied him with their size wrestling. Moving forward striking has always been an easy way to get takendown against him and thats exactly what Max's game is all about. The cardio here is about equal too, both guys have some of the best gas tanks in the sport Max won't just be able to make Frankie fade like he did to guys like Aldo or a weight miss Pettis.

Even striking its unlikely Max just dominates and gets an easy finish, the TD threat will make it difficult to just march forward and limit him to mostly just boxing but he doesn't have the power to deter Frankie's blitzes and if anything is probably defensively vulnerable to them. I expect Max wins in a scenario like that when Frankie can't get him down but its probably a fairly underwhelming 25 minute decision.

All in all its fair enough I for sure favour Max overall but this is not an easy fight at all and Frankie has a very good shot of doing well, him being +333 shows a lot of people are seriously underestimating him and not looking at the actual match up at all and just his age and each guys record a bit too much.

^Basically ended up writing a breakdown of the main event. Guess you folks can hopefuly enjoy that then
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,236,715
Messages
55,436,891
Members
174,775
Latest member
Ruckus245

Share this page

Back
Top