UFC 240 Holloway vs Edgar

turbozed said:
Why would Frota gas hard if she didn't gas against Souza (3rd round was her strongest)? She's also going to be fighting at 125 here, which probably suits her more, instead of 115, so she'll have an easier cut. Frota still should be bigger than Gillian who is really a 115'er but moved up to 125 for TUF.

The last time Gillian fought a girl with better BJJ than her (Mayra Silva) she got subbed in the first round. Gillian beat Macedo but I don't think her Venezuelan black or brown belt compares to girls like Souza and Frota. Frota has fought a few black belts in the past (Maiara and Araujo) and has gotten the better of all the grappling exchanges. Gillian isn't going to win the striking, and if she's successful with her only path to victory (getting it to the ground), she's going to be defending subs and sweeps by Frota. She's really not safe anywhere, and she's not a very good round winner due to her inability or unwillingness to throw strikes on top. Her best chance is to get the back like you mentioned. Entirely possible, but not something you want to bank on when backing a favorite.
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I didn't think it through very well...
 
Frota's TDD looked really bad against Souza, who was waayyyyy smaller.

I would argue that Frota had her most success in the 3rd round of that fight because SOUZA gassed out.

Robertson, very focused on improving and training at ATT, will be ready to go.
 
Jordan3399 said:
A few thoughts to stimulate some form of debate:

Edgar getting underrated a lot - covered that already a bit

Frota worth a shot over Roberson. Roberson needs to try and grind out 3 rounds grappling but Frota has way better BJJ and probably wins the striking comfortably enough off pure aggression.

Cyborgs too juiced to really have value but Spencers a hard pass she is pretty terrible

Took Neal at -200, Price has magic powers that give him wacky finishes but he should get his ass handed to him here. A repeat of Price-Alhassan wouldn't shock me.

UFC really screwing OAM with another rough match up after Burns. Not really sure what his path to victory is, worse grappler and striker.

Davis is way too hittable and Araujo packs power but +2xx on Davis is wide when she always brings pressure, has a decent ground game if she wants to go to it and a lot of experience.

Horie being undervalued vs Dawodu a lot. Dawodu is too hittable and eats a lot of solid shots, got him club n subbed by Danny Henry and even in the WSOF by guys like Steven Siler he was eating big shots and getting stunned. Horie has solid power and counters so could catch him, solid bet at +300 imo.

Jotko seems a tier or two above Barriault, better everywhere really although his chin and Barriaults grit makes it a bit more debatable. Won't be easy for Jotko to just blanket Barriault.
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Do you think Horie can win via decision or is his most likely path to victory a TKO or even a KO? As you said Dawodu gets hit CLEAN a lot. Clean being the operative word.
 
NorthernLights said:
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Chuckle. What movie is that from?
 
Omni1 said:
Do you think Horie can win via decision or is his most likely path to victory a TKO or even a KO? As you said Dawodu gets hit CLEAN a lot. Clean being the operative word.
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I think he could off landing the bigger shots to edge rounds. It'll probably be difficult though if he can't consistently hurt him as Dawodu should have much higher volume and be the one moving forward though.
 
Robertson is flaky as fuck. We saw her panicking & breaking before. I think she is not mentally strong at all and her grappling is a bit overrated. Just look at the girls she has subbed. There is a handful of situations where she even ended up on bottom after shooting for a takedown. Livinha is better than her imo. Robertson got armbared by a striker a year ago. I can’t trust that girl at all and she can’t strike for shit.

Frota got taken down a lot but she is a solid grappler and occasionally we saw her sprawl in the first fight. I bet Livinha and was a bit surprised by Frota. She was better than I expected. Is she technically good or athletic ? No. She has a decent teep kick & throws big bombs even though she is slow. Frota is one of the brazilian zombies like Cachoeira or Andrade. Always moving forward and throwing big punches.

Frota‘s zombie power could be a gamechanger in this fight. I see Robertson panicking after eating a shot and seeing this tattooed zombie moving forward lol. Robertson will be undersized, too. Even if they hit the ground, I‘m not sure Robertson can just dominate her there. Frota has long legs and used them well against Livinha when she was on her back.

The value on Frota is diminishing though.
 
Rickson said:
Robertson is flaky as fuck. We saw her panicking & breaking before. I think she is not mentally strong at all and her grappling is a bit overrated. Just look at the girls she has subbed. There is a handful of situations where she even ended up on bottom after shooting for a takedown. Livinha is better than her imo. Robertson got armbared by a striker a year ago. I can’t trust that girl at all and she can’t strike for shit.

Frota got taken down a lot but she is a solid grappler and occasionally we saw her sprawl in the first fight. I bet Livinha and was a bit surprised by Frota. She was better than I expected. Is she technically good or athletic ? No. She has a decent teep kick & throws big bombs even though she is slow. Frota is one of the brazilian zombies like Cachoeira or Andrade. Always moving forward and throwing big punches.

Frota‘s zombie power could be a gamechanger in this fight. I see Robertson panicking after eating a shot and seeing this tattooed zombie moving forward lol. Robertson will be undersized, too. Even if they hit the ground, I‘m not sure Robertson can just dominate her there. Frota has long legs and used them well against Livinha when she was on her back.

The value on Frota is diminishing though.
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Pathetically overweight shemale was being taken down at will by a much smaller girl. Also, as someone on here pointed out, way undersized Souza not being able to land more TDs late in that fight because she gassed, otherwise they were still there. Not like Frota made adjustments. Now up a division and having poor TDD against a girl who is going to spam TDs. She might then utilize rubber guard or try to sweep or whatever, but will be happy to let minutes tick by there on her back. Robertson is at a real gym, where I assume they'll drill a gameplan (hopefully position over submission, for starters) into her, and the failed punk rocker is from a fade gym. Maybe I'm way off here. But I'm definitely of the opinion that is putting Roberston as the fav.
This has all the makings of having money on Frota and then watching the fight unfold and thinking "fuck sakes, I'm on the wrong wrong side". Not saying Robertson will dominate, there will be hairy moments no doubt, but a close decision in Canada, with a Canadian fighting, who will have landed a bunch of TDs...
I agree with you that the value on Frota is long gone now and I got in on Robertson wayyy too early.
 
Id like to formally announce that bet mma tips sucks ass

I got banned 2 weeks in at a 25% roi
SAD!
 
Been taking a break from MMA betting cause crypto really heated up, anybody wanna spoonfeed me this weekend's winners?

Austisthunder said:
Id like to formally announce that bet mma tips sucks ass

I got banned 2 weeks in at a 25% roi
SAD!
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What did you do you filthy animal?
 
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