Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jun 24, 2019.
So ur blaq then?
Excellent! Another POC on the subforum!
Ah gotcha didn’t catch the sarcasm
So I'm just up at 2:15 am on a tuesday morning being a complete degen and playing $2 jackpot sit and gos on Bovada because I can't sleep and hit a $480 game
3 in 100,000
If anyone calls bullshit I will take a screenshot
Imagine if I would have been in the 7-60 games....just unreal odds. I got 2nd, guy sucked out on a river flush when I had 2 pair on the flop
I mean its kinda cool.
Just when you consider the odds at least
I mean maybe it's not even cool. Just unbelievably improbable. We're in the game of probabilities and what makes the most sense so maybe when you've been in it and understand these type of things you just think it would never happen because we always try to profit in the long term not rely on stupid odds.
If you think about it, if there was a fight that was 1/33,333 and you put $10 on it and won you would win $333,333
I said I was being a degen because I got a girl sleeping in the bed but sometimes you're with someone and you still feel alone ya know
but yea we gotta focus on these fights
good luck guys
Frankie is definitely worth a stab at his current odds. And the fight with Aldo doesnt say much cuz aldo is specialized on beating short wrestlers. Frankie by decision.
Why would Frota gas hard if she didn't gas against Souza (3rd round was her strongest)? She's also going to be fighting at 125 here, which probably suits her more, instead of 115, so she'll have an easier cut. Frota still should be bigger than Gillian who is really a 115'er but moved up to 125 for TUF.
The last time Gillian fought a girl with better BJJ than her (Mayra Silva) she got subbed in the first round. Gillian beat Macedo but I don't think her Venezuelan black or brown belt compares to girls like Souza and Frota. Frota has fought a few black belts in the past (Maiara and Araujo) and has gotten the better of all the grappling exchanges. Gillian isn't going to win the striking, and if she's successful with her only path to victory (getting it to the ground), she's going to be defending subs and sweeps by Frota. She's really not safe anywhere, and she's not a very good round winner due to her inability or unwillingness to throw strikes on top. Her best chance is to get the back like you mentioned. Entirely possible, but not something you want to bank on when backing a favorite.
With me it’s the other way around. At those odds I will take OAM
OAM has 1% to win. Arman trains now at ATT and he gave a good fight against Islam. I bet Hernandez against OAM and Burns so I know when he will probably lose. Arman should be A bigger favourite, wont wish you luck because I bet Tsarukyan but maybe bet a dog with a higher chance to win. Frota Has even A higher chance,Edgar and Koch
Nah, you guys are poor for european standards. A house is like half of Poland‘s GDP.
Anyway numbers don’t fight.
Just pick the 6 dogs with the best chance and bet them, you'll probably do alright
Is Ortega Lincoln this card or no
I hate to cap based on armchair psychology but...here we go. Frota has a...meanness about her in and out of the cage. Robertson is my girl but she has a bit if a defeatist attitude. I'm pretty sure Eddie Alvarez noted that on TUF that if she doesnt get the early sub and it turns into a fight she loses a lot of steam and confidence ala Jake Matthew's (big Celtic kid hater here btw)
No. Regional bum fluke merchant/KZ is being negotiated.
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