UFC 240 Holloway vs Edgar

Monster Meat said:
Love Frankie but he isn’t winning this fight. His only chance is taking down max and controlling him. Don’t think it’s likely.
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He didn't have a chance vs BJ either though. I would be very careful max betting Holloway. Especially at -410.
 
theres just no value in a -400 favorite with a lot of damage/warning signs. Max should have this but not a spot to identify value. Roi going to be small regardless
 
Omni1 said:
Did you watch any tape on the Tsaryukyan vs OAM fight? I don't see a likely path to victory for OAM. He is not going to KO Tsar. Highly unlikely that he submits him either. Nothing in OAM's past fights suggests that he is going to out work Tsar on the feet. The most likely way to win for OAM is perhaps a wall & stall grind fest against the fence. However, I find that very unlikely. I feel very confident Tsar wins this. The only question is whether he wins via decision or TKO. OAM does not keep his hands up after striking. Especially in the pocket. I can see Tsar landing a left hook or that lead left head kick he KO'd Olivieri with.
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well Ov/Un lines aint up yet but if the over is -200 or less ill be betting that instead of OAM but thinking its gonna be O2.5 like -240
 
Interesting card
Tsarukyn is my most confident pick, OAM just sucks nad Arman impressed me against Islam.
Erik Koch has a chance to win, Kyle Stewart sucks
Sarah Frota will be biggers than Robertson, question is if she improved her tdd.
Edgar has also a chance to win, Max didnt faced a wrestler a while. Only strikers.

What do you think guys about Pantoja ???
 
if you're looking to bet tucker i would wait until after the face offs, the size difference is going to be absurd.
 
A lot of these matchups are tricky.

What's everyones strongest lean?
Mine is geoff neal - got him around -275, wish I got in sooner.

I also like Robertson to implement her grappling on Frota. Got her at -150, and apparently I should have waited. Woops!
 
edole said:
A lot of these matchups are tricky.

What's everyones strongest lean?
Mine is geoff neal - got him around -275, wish I got in sooner.

I also like Robertson to implement her grappling on Frota. Got her at -150, and apparently I should have waited. Woops!
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My is Arman Tsarukyan, I wanted to bet Frota because of her size advantage but her tdd sucks so thats a concern
 
Pantoja is probably the only bet I like at the moment. Holloway wins, Tsarukyan wins, Cyborg wins but they're not worth betting. I'll probably throw something on Barriault too as I don't trust Jotko's chin, although he did look great in his last fight. That's either down to making the right changes and his new sports psychologist really helping, or it's easier competition.
 
ApplesVild said:
Pantoja is probably the only bet I like at the moment. Holloway wins, Tsarukyan wins, Cyborg wins but they're not worth betting. I'll probably throw something on Barriault too as I don't trust Jotko's chin, although he did look great in his last fight. That's either down to making the right changes and his new sports psychologist really helping, or it's easier competition.
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He looked great because his oponnent didnt train wrestling
<45>
Im betting Pantoja too
 
Jordan3399 said:
A 10u play is just reckless or a sign you need to increase your unit size and 90% confidence would be -900 and would more than warrant a play when Max is -400.
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Lets say I can get Max at a 1.25 or -400 and I have a 90% confidence that he wins. That gives me an expected return of 1.25 * .90 = 1.125, or an expected return of 12.5%. Yes there would still be an advantage, but I want a little bit more of an edge when the odd is so low. For example I said for the last card that I had Arlovski at 55%-60% and his odds were 2.65 (2.65*.55 = 1.475 or an edge of 47.5%).

As to the takedowns... Ortega landed 2 or 11 for a few seconds of top control before Max got back up. Unblemished no, but I'm not worried about Frankie lay and praying or smothering Max for a victory.

As far as Max losing the striking to Aldo? I wholeheartedly disagree, Max methodically broke Aldo down and beat him twice. By the second time it should have been pretty obvious to any observer that Max was dominating Aldo and how he was doing it. Aldo didn't "gas". If you want to see Aldo beat someone striking, watch his UFC 200 fight with Frankie.

As for 10 units being "too big of a bet". Not with odds at -400 it isn't. 10 units pays 2.5. It's a big play, but not at all out sized. Even though there is a much lower expected return than the AA fight, there is also much lower variability, which needs to be accounted for and a Kelly optimizer (or 1/2 half Kelly is what I typically use) can help you determine what your bet size should be.
 
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thesharktank said:
Aldo didn't "gas".
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Aldo definitely gassed you're the only guy I've ever see try and dispute that. He was up on every scorecard and even Max turned around to Rogan in both fights and said Aldo was tired but finishing him in the third.
 
Edgar has a serious chance to win this. Max Has no ko power, just alot of volume.
 
Jordan3399 said:
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Aldo definitely gassed you're the only guy I've ever see try and dispute that. He was up on every scorecard and even Max turned around to Rogan in both fights and said Aldo was tired but finishing him in the third.
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But why did Aldo gas? Coincidence? Or methodical breakdown... You're posting the scorecard from Aldo/Max 1. Max was the underdog in this fight. In their next fight he was a 1.33. The bookies saw what I saw. I assume you hammered Aldo in their rematch as he was beating Max on the feet until he gassed.. A little update to his gameplan and he can beat Max!
 
thesharktank said:
But why did Aldo gas? Coincidence? Or methodical breakdown... You're posting the scorecard from Aldo/Max 1. Max was the underdog in this fight. In their next fight he was a 1.33. The bookies saw what I saw. I assume you hammered Aldo in their rematch as he was beating Max on the feet until he gassed.. A little update to his gameplan and he can beat Max!
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Unlike Aldo Edgar does have the cardio to hang with max in the later rounds but if Edgar does not get takedowns he doesn’t win this fight. He’s outmatched on the feet he will get outruck no doubt.
 
thesharktank said:
But why did Aldo gas? Coincidence? Or methodical breakdown... You're posting the scorecard from Aldo/Max 1. Max was the underdog in this fight. In their next fight he was a 1.33. The bookies saw what I saw. I assume you hammered Aldo in their rematch as he was beating Max on the feet until he gassed.. A little update to his gameplan and he can beat Max!
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Aldo always showed a cardio problem. Edgar, Hominick, Lamas and Mendes all had success late in fights against him Max just went out with a gameplan to make him work hard as possible and, by his own admission, he fell right into it. Its not a hard fight to understand at all don't go blowing your own trumpet too much. The fact Max made him gas doesn't change the fact that he had to in order to win as when they were both fresh skill for skill Aldo was undoubtedly the more better fighter.

Not sure why the second scorecard would change anything when near enough the same thing happened each time. Aldo used more leg kicks in the rematch and fought a more conservative R1 leading to scores being split for the that round. Holloways jab was better and he circled differently. Overall though it was a repeat.
 
1.18 on Max LOL, miss those days when he was 2.00 against Ortega
 
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