UFC 240 Holloway vs Edgar

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jun 24, 2019.

  1. rev0lver

    rev0lver Green Belt

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    It's really hard to gauge Choi's abilities. He got thrown in the fire against an undefeated rising star out of Russia in his UFC debut. Seems to be a decent striker, not too much to say about his ground game but he was always able to get back to his feet against Evloev.

    Tucker vs Glenn was weird. Glenn made him look like a complete amateur. I have no doubt that got in his head a bit, especially considering how cocky he was prior. But I don't see Choi being able to do the same here. -200 on Tucker (I'm seeing -180 now) seems pretty fair to bet him. I'd only go small if I wanted to take a stab on Choi
     
  2. Macaque

    Macaque White Belt

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    Experience tells me to always fade Koreans (minus KZ).
    Then again, I haven’t looked at tape yet.
     
  3. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Blue Belt

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    My Korean friend also tells me this frequently
     
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  4. Macaque

    Macaque White Belt

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    Even fighters like Sung Bin Jo, who was pretty high-level by Korean MMA’s standards, go ahead and lose to guys like Daniel Teymur. Not to mention they’ve typically got really shit defense. Imo, they usually have good chins cause anyone not made of bricks gets filtered out. lol

    Anyways, I can’t really trust them with my money.
     
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  5. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Love Frankie but he isn’t winning this fight. His only chance is taking down max and controlling him. Don’t think it’s likely.
     
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  6. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Blue Belt

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    Wise, my friend told me his entire family got rich bilking other koreans off illicit pyramid schemes before bolting the country, not to be trusted indeed!
     
  7. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Blue Belt

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    Vivi and neal under -200 were good, copped dat, The two main fights r likely free $ but no value now
     
  8. burge13

    burge13 Green Belt

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    Main event doesn't start round 4 @ -120?
     
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  9. Macaque

    Macaque White Belt

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    I meant Korean fighters but I still lol’d.
     
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  10. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Blue Belt

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    Either way ur losing $ lol
     
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  11. Macaque

    Macaque White Belt

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    Tsarukyan looked damn good but I need a refresher on OAM before betting.
     
  12. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Some interesting line movement the other day on the Neal/Price fight. Not sure if that was you or not @Sadistics but if so thanks for getting me Neal at -140 ;)
     
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  13. Sadistics

    Sadistics Purple Belt

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    Haha, you'll see that kind of movement history on a lot of UFC 240 lines. Sadly I couldn't take advantage when BOL opened.
     
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  14. LeskoJohnson

    LeskoJohnson White Belt

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    Alexis Davis @+240 is absolutely crazy. Like I told you guys on the rio card I know Vivi Araujo personally and trained with her for many years, she has everything to be one of the best of the division in the future but this is her biggest test, people are exaggerating a lot the result she got from Talita Bernardo for a couple of reasons.


    Talita fucking sucks, I don’t rate her at all. Everybody was pilling on her against Gatto, bc Gatto has no business being the ufc, but Talita is fade material as well. Vivi Koed her in a short notice bout going up two categories as I heard from a friend of mine “this girl will dominate the division” let’s examine this narrative. First she was training and was in fight shape as displayed on the fight (so the short notice thing is not a huge factor.) and second she fought a lot at SW, but she is actually built now as a Flyweight so actually she was just going up one category not two.


    Not diminishing her accomplishment, but those are facts. She looked very impressive as she indeed is, and I think she will have a very successful career. But this line is way way too wide, having trained with Vivi I thought when it came to her I always be biased bc when you know what a fighter can do personally in your head he seems a whole lot better sometimes than he really is. But actually Vivi is great I think she is the rightfully favorite here, she being one of my biggest cashes these year that 2.5u @+1000 for her to win via KO/TKO payed a very very nice holiday for me and my gf. But this is her first test and I’m fading her for two reasons.


    One line is too wide, like I said a few times on these forums. I like to make my own lines pre lines being released so that I can choose my spots more clearly and I have the money line being 60-65% Vivi x 35-40% Davis. And actually I think it’s possible that the margin is wider, this is not an easy fight to predict and a 10% margin of error would not be an exaggeration making it possible in long term for this fight to be 45-55%.


    I cap this fight with those odds, bc Davis will be the best competition Vivi has ever faced by a mile. Between destroying girls in the regional Japanese and Brazilian circuit. Alexis Davis has been fighting some of the best competition in the world for quite some time now. Araújo as an exciting prospect and Davis more as a gatekeeper are heading probably different directions.


    But, Araujo lone loss is a Ko in round one against Sarah Frota (that is the toughest competition she has ever faced) and Davis will be her first real test. I think Araujo does win in this one, as my odds analysis reflecting her winning more inside the sample. But this will be a very close fight. And getting +240 (30%) is definitely valuable. But I went with a small sizing (0.6u), bc I have a different approach in this one I think if Vivi wins she will be finishing so I will have a bet on her ITD prop line (sizing depending on how will come out). I think playing both of sides like this will be a nice spot and also I think Davis line will tighten up in the upcoming days, she will still be a dog but a closer one.
     
  15. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Blue Belt

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    Gud poast
    I hit vivi for 2 u combined at like -175 total so im happy where im at value wise but id disagree tbh, think vivi has value still, davis is starting to slow down imo, vivi has standup edge for sure, is good enough on the ground, i dont see how Davis wins this .... meme armbar maybe? Youd know training with her if vivi is vulnerable to anything of that nature
     
  16. LeskoJohnson

    LeskoJohnson White Belt

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    Vivi is pretty good overall what I think is Davis can outvolume her to a close decision. Like I said I think Vivi wins this ITD, but I see value on Davis ML @+240 bc this will be a very very close fight. Anyway good luck mate, if vivi does win hope she wins ITD bc I will cash that, otherwise Davis on the scorecards hahaha.
     
  17. theTKDguy

    theTKDguy Platinum Native

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    Holloway by tko is the play here imo. As a frankie fan, his pitter patter boxing won't do him any favours against a younger, longer and sharper boxer. His only ptv is wrestling, but I don't think he can do it for 5 rounds. Max should win and frankie likely retires after this one.
     
  18. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Purple Belt

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    I don't see Frankie getting TKOd at all tbh. Max gets finishes by breaking guys and it takes big one shot power to rock Frankie. Max doesn't have that power and Frankie is a cardio machine that won't fade. I think there's a lot of value on FGTD.

    Fwiw too the one book I've found offering props has Max TKO at -150, unless you cap it as like a 70% of happening (which I find hard to justify) then there's no real value.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019
  19. theTKDguy

    theTKDguy Platinum Native

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    Man frankie is historically a tough sob but you gotta consider he's older now. He got stiffened by ortega recently and I see no reason to think max can't tko him like he did aldo, who was/is a tough sob himself. Max is a big 145er and while he doesn't pack 1 punch ko power, he definitely can end the fight with volume. 3rd rd tko. Doesn't mean frankie is shot, he's still a top 4 fw but it's a bad matchup for him.

    I don't know if i'll play max tho, too much juice.
     
  20. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Purple Belt

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    Max was able to hurt guys like Aldo and then finish them is because their cardio failed or they broke mentally. Almost all his TKO's were him overwhelming guys, Aldo gassed both times, Pettis broke easily after a terrible weight cut and quit, Ortega has zero defence and could still of survived the fight had the doctor not stopped it. Frankies older but he's not gonna fade or get overwhelmed unless he gets cracked hard by something, and even then he'll have no problem shooting in on Max to create a grappling exchange that will allow him to survive. Not saying Max can't get the finish but given the odds I don't see any value at all and far more on a line like Holloway Dec. I've been seeing FGTD lines as high as +350 which is absolutely insane imo.

    Fwiw as well I still don't think we've seen enough evidence to assume a wrestler as good as Frankie can't get Max down for periods. Max was taken down twice by Ortega who has awful wrestling, in comparison Frankie's one of the best MMA wrestlers ever. I think the lines very off with people just looking at Frankie's age and loss to Ortega and not the style match up itself. You could compare it to Faber-Simon last night, Simon has awful defence and Faber is still fast with power, there was a clear path to victory but everyone just said he's too old and not a lot else other than that.
     
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