UFC 240 Holloway vs Edgar

Soccer Steve said:
I do understand the sentiment that paying -200 and worse for a girl who has one UFC fight is a bad idea. But she's going to cakewalk Round 1. Davis is going to wear damage. Her low kicks won't be worth as much as the punches she's countered with. This is a favourite-or-pass kind of fight. Find an angle on Vivi and play it, or pass. Davis is old, slow, and loses.
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Viv's debut was crazy impressive, but Talita was tailor made for her style and gave her the range she prefers. I need to see her prove it against someone who will bring constant pressure like Davis before laying the juice. I get Davis is extremely hittable, but shes tough af as well and keeps coming. Pressure and cardio are legit concerns for Viv backers here IMO. Took a stab at Davis +207 and Davis rd3 +2675.
 
What's all this Spencer is going to sub Cyborg talk and why is it happening? Cyborg KO is sitting at -250 and that seems like a steal.
 
Choi +150 was probably my favorite bet on the card. Like Arman to wrestlefuck OAM into Bellator. Neal should KO Price. Jotko should handle Marc. Gil/Frota should be pretty crazy on the mat, but like Gil's wrestling to win out. Horie KO +575 is worth a stab, Hakeem a bit chinny and had a tough cut and the asian kid cracks.
 
Stunna77 said:
Choi +150 was probably my favorite bet on the card. Like Arman to wrestlefuck OAM into Bellator. Neal should KO Price. Jotko should handle Marc. Gil/Frota should be pretty crazy on the mat, but like Gil's wrestling to win out. Horie KO +575 is worth a stab, Hakeem a bit chinny and had a tough cut and the asian kid cracks.
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What's your Koch-Stewart lean?
 
Soccer Steve said:
What's your Koch-Stewart lean?
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Have some Koch action at +140. I don't love it with all the red flags surrounding him and the move up to 170, but talking straight skillset he is the better striker and grappler so I had to take a bit as a firm dog.
 
Stunna77 said:
What's all this Spencer is going to sub Cyborg talk and why is it happening? Cyborg KO is sitting at -250 and that seems like a steal.
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Maybe some people think she won’t stand and bang with Cyborg which everyone else has tried to do to no avail. She’s a smart woman, she’s confident, and at least talks like she sees holes in Cyborgs game. If she sees something she can exploit, anyone can get choked out and I suppose at +500 ML and +900 sub prop yesterday, those were good enough + signs to push action onto them. I was one of these people


That said, she could also get rushed and get knocked out in seconds as the ML and prop odds all indicate the bookies think will happen.
 
TrueAscension said:
Maybe some people think she won’t stand and bang with Cyborg which everyone else has tried to do to no avail. She’s a smart woman, she’s confident, and at least talks like she sees holes in Cyborgs game. If she sees something she can exploit, anyone can get choked out and I suppose at +500 ML and +900 sub prop yesterday, those were good enough + signs to push action onto them. I was one of these people


That said, she could also get rushed and get knocked out in seconds as the ML and prop odds all indicate the bookies think will happen.
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Not everyone wanted to stand and bang with Cyborg, she makes it so you don't have much choice. I just don't see a slow, undersized Spencer being able to get this to the mat. Thats some scary distance she has to close on Cyborg with her power and speed. She also isn't a complete novice in the wrestling/grappling department like Megan Anderson. If anything it seems like Spenecr's avenue to victory just puts her in Cyborgs wheelhouse to massacre her. Guess we will see soon enough.
 
Somehow I caught Cyborg at -300, then I heard the fight was cancelled, but I guess it's still on? I'm just letting my $300 roll, I'm okay with it.
 
MidgardSerpent said:
Somehow I caught Cyborg at -300, then I heard the fight was cancelled, but I guess it's still on? I'm just letting my $300 roll, I'm okay with it.
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I thought -405 was the opener unless Dimes opened prior to BOL, but I maxed that once, so got little over $1k down, added $300 to KO -240.

-300 is crazy good.
 
I consider myself the Dalai Lama of sports betting. Hashtag: #hisholiness
Barry's "plays of the day" more prized than a Salvador Dalí painting. #hyperbole

HOW TO GET GOOD BETTING MMA​
  • Biggest mistake I see Sherdog bettors doing is unwilling to limit their plays. 1-3 picks MAX per card
  • Parlays have a negative return rate. They do not "pack a punch" like the late great Pernell Whitaker (R.I.P)
  • Identify fighters who have value and bet on odds that are not overinflated
  • Bankroll management. Bet within yours means. Stay disciplined!
I've been in this game for 10+ years experiencing the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. I ran my own handicapping business which was for the most part a profitable venture. This is my passion in life despite my personal life being in complete shambles. Take what I say to heart and know you have my support. I offer a lending hand even to the naysayers, haters and anti-Barry critics. I am Apollo Creed willing, with arms wide open, to forgive and forget like God almighty himself.

Now let us get down to the nitty gritty.

Barry's "One Play a Day" pick for UFC 240: HOLLOWAY VS. EDGAR:
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I back 100% of my plays with Barry's seal of approval. I am 100% transparent by providing betting slips, spreadsheet detailing my performance. I don't fudge numbers, provide false claims nor engage in any skulduggery!

We will Usher in a new President in 2020. Sanders/Warren (let the stars align)
A song which I feel captures the moment:


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Godspeed
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- Barry





 
My weigh-in thoughts for whoever cares:
-Stewart: very meh. -Koch: fired up, shorter, doesn't seem to show as a lower weightclass
-Frota: when she looks in the mirror is she happy with what she sees? -Robertson: smaller girl for sure.
-Fig: looks ripped. -Pantoja: less ripped. Friendly with each other. Should be a good one.
-Choi: is that a mouse under his right eye? -Tucker: looking focused. Much shorter. Little afraid for my O1.5 after that staredown; both keen.
-Horie: fine. -Dawodu: ripped.
-Araujo: looks ready to keep the kype train on the rails. -Davis: same as always. Good shape.
-Jotko: looks fine. -Barriault: maybe a little soft. Dana stressed that they touch! Quick reflexes from the big man. Get him in against Boser!
-Tsarukyan: ripped. Please no sophomore slump. -OAM: thicker, taller, nerd.
-Price: looking ready to kill or be killed. -Neal: cool as a cucumber.
-Spencer: quite soft, but to be expected. -Cyborg: face paint on point as always. Walks away from the handshake. Spencer starstruck a bit, laughs.
Interlude: I wish I lived in Hawaii.
-Frankie: yeah sure, same as always. -Max: energetic, same as always, maybe a bit better. Cut probably went ok. Much taller. Friendly. Shot of Max walking down the stairs: everything seemed fine!
 
Stunna77 said:
Not everyone wanted to stand and bang with Cyborg, she makes it so you don't have much choice. I just don't see a slow, undersized Spencer being able to get this to the mat. Thats some scary distance she has to close on Cyborg with her power and speed. She also isn't a complete novice in the wrestling/grappling department like Megan Anderson. If anything it seems like Spenecr's avenue to victory just puts her in Cyborgs wheelhouse to massacre her. Guess we will see soon enough.
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Oh I agree but at 9:1, it’s not the worst bet on the planet
 
theTKDguy said:
I'm sure as hell masvidal was a great bet. His ability to improvise and adapt won him this fight, askren only knew how to react in one way. You may say masvidal was never known for being a wildcard but you could tell askren had brought out that miami backyard brawler out. Awesome play in my book and confident masvidal wins this more times than askren, which is more than what the odds said.

Add de randamie too.

That Trinaldo dec hurts
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I mean Askren-Masvidal is more meaningful than Conor-Aldo or something, in my opinion, but we also didn't really get to see how the wrestling interacted or anything. Masvidal could easily have missed and spent 15 minutes getting sodomized.

Naught2Sixty said:
Best losing bet you ever had? Mine was Yoel against Whittaker 2. Got a little greedy on the ML but boy did I jump out of my seat thinking I had that shit. In the same breath M. Anderson was the worst bet of all time.

<This7>
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This year I'd say something like GM3 & GM3 Dec @ +900 against Holland.
 
So much value on Cyborg, especially her opening lines. Cap her at 95%.
 
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