UFC 237 Namajunas vs Andrade

For anyone picking Aldo of Volk, how do you see him getting it done?
 
For anyone picking Aldo of Volk, how do you see him getting it done?
Aldo. He's beaten wrestle-boxers his whole career with wins over prime Chad and Frankie. 3 Rounder + in Brazil. How can anyone confidently take Volk here? I understand passing but I'd want a bigger number to actually bet the dog
 
Aldo. He's beaten wrestle-boxers his whole career with wins over prime Chad and Frankie. 3 Rounder + in Brazil. How can anyone confidently take Volk here? I understand passing but I'd want a bigger number to actually bet the dog

No doubt he looked great against Frankie, but I would have to say that is a past prime over the hill Frankie. Chad on the other hand that was a close fight through out, not disputing the discsion but Chad gave him a very hard fight.

Of all the fights Aldo has won I would say Chad 2 was his hardest fought victory. Now he is going up against what I see as a younger, less damaged, equally as powerful version of Chad in Volk, and this is after suffering even more damage, a few knock outs, added injuries, age catching up to him and possibly coming into this fight with an on going injury. Even if the injury is healed how much has it effected his camp? Aldo was tired from round two onwards against Holloway. Not say Volk puts on that kind of pace but if he can make Aldo clinch up and wrestle and work non stop he could get him to gas too.

Just to say I'm not disagreeing with you, just saying what I see.
 
Aldo. He's beaten wrestle-boxers his whole career with wins over prime Chad and Frankie. 3 Rounder + in Brazil. How can anyone confidently take Volk here? I understand passing but I'd want a bigger number to actually bet the dog
I got Aldo @-118. But Aldo @-125 is just pure pure pure value. Would cap him @-200ish, Volk had immense trouble with a shot, old Mendes. He really felt the increase of competition quality. Even tho we are not talking about prime Aldo, he’s coming off a great win against top contender Renato Moicano.
 
No doubt he looked great against Frankie, but I would have to say that is a past prime over the hill Frankie. Chad on the other hand that was a close fight through out, not disputing the discsion but Chad gave him a very hard fight.

Of all the fights Aldo has won I would say Chad 2 was his hardest fought victory. Now he is going up against what I see as a younger, less damaged, equally as powerful version of Chad in Volk, and this is after suffering even more damage, a few knock outs, added injuries, age catching up to him and possibly coming into this fight with an on going injury. Even if the injury is healed how much has it effected his camp? Aldo was tired from round two onwards against Holloway. Not say Volk puts on that kind of pace but if he can make Aldo clinch up and wrestle and work non stop he could get him to gas too.

Just to say I'm not disagreeing with you, just saying what I see.
Aldo did not get injury, he got a small cut on his knee. And because of that got bacterial infection, so just like fever and whatever. This became news because he had to go to the hospital, but 4 days later he was back training. In my view this won’t affect him at all.
 
Aldo did not get injury, he got a small cut on his knee. And because of that got bacterial infection, so just like fever and whatever. This became news because he had to go to the hospital, but 4 days later he was back training. In my view this won’t affect him at all.

Okay that's fair enough, from the amount of sotires and talk I saw it made it seem like he was very close to pulling out.

I'm always assume each fighter is going in that not perfect any way, there's always an Injury or family issues or whatever it may be that come into play, bad weight cuts and so on.. so who known what version of each fighter we are getting
 
I got Aldo @-118. But Aldo @-125 is just pure pure pure value. Would cap him @-200ish, Volk had immense trouble with a shot, old Mendes. He really felt the increase of competition quality. Even tho we are not talking about prime Aldo, he’s coming off a great win against top contender Renato Moicano.
I am on Aldo at -120, it actually got to -110 here briefly but I'm happy. I don't think this version of Volk is better than the Chad/Frankie Aldo already beat and Aldo just beat one of the best in the division. His boxing is good and his TDD is great. Volk is powerful, smart and strong willed but is that enough? I don't think so even though I'd like him to win and face Max on the Sydney card later this year!
 
Aldo’s knee injury (bacteria infection) limited him to one practice a week. Hard to see it not having an effect especially since it occurred so recently
 

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Aldo’s knee injury (bacteria infection) limited him to one practice a week. Hard to see it not having an effect especially since it occurred so recently
Thats got to have been something lost in translation, no way would he be taking this fight doing just one training session a week.
 
I’m on Aldo, but Volkanovski has a good chin and will take one to give one. Don’t think it goes the distance, so I’m hoping there’s value there.

plus all my favorite fighters are losing lately so i feel like I need to hedge on Aldo bet a bit in it not going the distance.
 
Thats got to have been something lost in translation, no way would he be taking this fight doing just one training session a week.
Correct, HORRIBLE translation. I’m a Brazilian so I’m going to translate the same interview to English, here’s Aldo’s quote:

“Eu estava treinando Wrestling segunda-feira (passada), quando entrei no double lag, fiz uma pequena queimadura no joelho e entrou uma bactéria. No dia seguinte, acordei com meu joelho gigante, doendo muito e comecei os antibióticos. O primeiro não fez efeito, mas o segundo fez. Então, eu fiz um processo para retirar tudo de ruim e os excessos. Agora, estou melhor. semana que vem, se Deus quiser, já estou de volta aos treinos com força total””
What an actual correct translation would be:

“I was training Wrestling on monday, and when I shot a double leg, I had a small cut on my knee and a bacteria got inside of it. On the following the day I woke up with my knee very swollen, it was hurting a lot so I started taking antibiotics. The first one didn’t worked, but the second did. Then, I had a procedure, to take all of the remaining bacteria out of my knee. Now, I’m better. Next week, with the bless of god I will be back to my normal intense training routine.”

This was quoted on a saturday, Monday on the next week he was training again normally, so not one practice a week to recover fully. What he actually said was I’m fully recovered and next week will be back to my normal training routine. Like I said, won’t affect him.
 
I was one of the very few on Volk against Chad. He’s being underrated again imho. Not necessarily going to plant my flag on his side but I’d be wary of dismissing him so easily. He’s of that Hermansson ilk; on a good run and full to the brim with confidence.
 
I was one of the very few on Volk against Chad. He’s being underrated again imho. Not necessarily going to plant my flag on his side but I’d be wary of dismissing him so easily. He’s of that Hermansson ilk; on a good run and full to the brim with confidence.

He’s relentless but Aldo has always been excellent dealing with forward pressure and has that crazy TDD.

If the fights even relatively close it’s going to Aldo because Brazil. Volk has to finish him or dominate on the ground and I just don’t see that happening, probably a close dec. that goes to Aldo
 
No doubt he looked great against Frankie, but I would have to say that is a past prime over the hill Frankie. Chad on the other hand that was a close fight through out, not disputing the discsion but Chad gave him a very hard fight.

Of all the fights Aldo has won I would say Chad 2 was his hardest fought victory. Now he is going up against what I see as a younger, less damaged, equally as powerful version of Chad in Volk, and this is after suffering even more damage, a few knock outs, added injuries, age catching up to him and possibly coming into this fight with an on going injury. Even if the injury is healed how much has it effected his camp? Aldo was tired from round two onwards against Holloway. Not say Volk puts on that kind of pace but if he can make Aldo clinch up and wrestle and work non stop he could get him to gas too.

Just to say I'm not disagreeing with you, just saying what I see.
You can see the handspeed and power differential in Volkanovski-Mendes, even against a depleted, aged, retiring version of Mendes. Volkanovski's probably gonna run a similar gameplan, but he's a different fighter to the Mendes that entered the ring with Aldo. Most likely Volk tries to pour a ton of volume on Aldo, and either gets his head removed in the first 8 minutes or takes over late. I'm big on fight ends by KO here.

I got Aldo @-118. But Aldo @-125 is just pure pure pure value. Would cap him @-200ish, Volk had immense trouble with a shot, old Mendes. He really felt the increase of competition quality. Even tho we are not talking about prime Aldo, he’s coming off a great win against top contender Renato Moicano.

Prettymuch. Mendes was notably regressed in cardio, striking technique and confidence and still gave Volkanovski a bunch of trouble. Volk's path to victory here is gassing out Aldo and either finishing or somehow banking enough dominance to get the decision in Brazil. Holloway's probably the most-elite volume dude in the sport, with a top-tier chin, and even he had to take absolute nukes both times he gassed out Aldo.
 
Only way I see Andrade win is landing takedowns
Kinda feel like Rose is early finish or bust here. Andrade doesn't stop coming forward, it's in Brazil (which might lead to her edging close rounds) and I don't think Rose has the elite pivoting/distance management abilities of a Joanna. Andrade's gastank is deeper, so I think we see her just ragdolling Rose towards the end. Also don't think Rose has the depth of grappling skill to really trouble Andrade off her back or anything.
 
I've rewatched the Mendes/Volk fight a few times now and I think the biggest difference in there was the cardio of Volk, he throws with good power, constant faints and movement but he doesn't slow down at all. He was pressuring the whole of round one and even though much didn't happen it was Volk taking the lead and landing the jab.

Round 2 Mendes picks things up, well times takedowns but Volk just gets up, like effortlessly. I would say Mendes is a bigger puncher in terms of power than Aldo, but Aldo is the more accurate and varied puncher. That makes me think that Volk is likely to get hit more often but with less damage. He was getting rocked and dropped by Mendes but he recovered really quickly.

In a 5 rounder I would be all over Volk... I just don't know if there rounds is enough for Volk to tire Aldo and take over. If he comes out and looks to get Aldo to the cage, wear on him, grind against him, that could tire Aldo, gas his arms out, it would pay of come round two and three.

I think Volk can take Aldo's shots early, and if he pressures enough Aldo will tire the punches will come slower and with less snap... But, if Aldo can stay on his bike, avoid an long clinching periods and maintain the distance he picks at Volk for three rounds and gets late tko or a discsion....

Tough call, we are seeing a new wave coming in a lot of divisions, a changing of the guard.

I think I will make a play on Volk as the dog
 
I just remember thinking that Sergio didn’t look like his usual self. I didn’t think it was the style match up I just remember him looking particularly bad.

There may have been a reason for it I just can’t remember. Don’t know if he had some kind of issue at camp or something

I remember him having a really bad cut, which also affected his performance that fight. I was huge on Martin in that one, so followed it closely. He was gassing more than usual, and not as wild as usual IMO. His willingness to rush in and trade punches, combined with a higher output could make him look better in the eye of the judges, than a more paced lower output Alves.
 
Alves/Moraes is tricky. I could see Alves going for a guillotine and that gets it to the ground for Moraes.
 
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