UFC 237 Namajunas vs Andrade

Lol Rose was probably just exaggerating to squeeze some money off Conor

You should rather be worried about Jessica‘s inability to cut off her opponent if you’re betting this
 
The big issue Rose will have in this fight is trying to win a decision playing the matador all night. I'm not saying she can't do it, but it won't be enough for her to be slightly more effective moving backward and away than Andrade is moving forward. That scenario likely gets Andrade the win. Rose will have to CLEARLY outstrike Andrade to the point where the judges don't have a choice but to give her rounds. This is doubly true given that Andrade (assuming her coaches aren't total idiots) will likely try to seal rounds with late TD's. I don't think she wants to spend a ton of time in Rose's guard, but late TD's in close rounds could for sure be a factor.

I cap Andrade probably -160 to -180. I'll be rooting for Rose, but I don't like her chances.
 
Just a reminder that challengers who are favourites lose the vast majority of title fights and that the blueprint of beating Andrade has been written.

Still rooting for Jessica though. I love little Wanderlei.
 
Placed my biggest lifetime bet on a fight on this card, you'll never guess who.
 
Sadistics said:
Placed my biggest lifetime bet on a fight on this card, you'll never guess who.
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Lol good guesses but no, it's BJ Penn +400! He's finally getting a wrestler and should get to show off his world class BJJ, showing everyone why they call him the prodigy.

I'm kidding of course. I put 5k on Talita Bernardo -155. Simply put it's a purple belt guard player vs a black belt top player, where the black belt also holds a significant striking advantage. Gatto has one slim path to victory, a guard sub. Talita has very heavy hips, staying tight to her opponent and constantly looking to quickly smash through her opponents guards. She's already faced two girls with much more dangerous guards in Reneau and Moras, only losing to Reneau due to cardio issues on short notice in her debut. Talita has a great variety of TDs that she lands with high accuracy, and Gatto has non-existent TDD. In the off chance she ends up on her back she'll quickly look to sweep and control the scramble.

I cap her around -900 and had no issues dropping 10u at -155.
 
Sadistics said:
Lol good guesses but no, it's BJ Penn +400! He's finally getting a wrestler and should get to show off his world class BJJ, showing everyone why they call him the prodigy.

I'm kidding of course. I put 5k on Talita Bernardo -155. Simply put it's a purple belt guard player vs a black belt top player, where the black belt also holds a significant striking advantage. Gatto has one slim path to victory, a guard sub. Talita has very heavy hips, staying tight to her opponent and constantly looking to quickly smash through her opponents guards. She's already faced two girls with much more dangerous guards in Reneau and Moras, only losing to Reneau due to cardio issues on short notice in her debut. Talita has a great variety of TDs that she lands with high accuracy, and Gatto has non-existent TDD. In the off chance she ends up on her back she'll quickly look to sweep and control the scramble.

I cap her around -900 and had no issues dropping 10u at -155.
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Wmma

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Sadistics said:
Lol good guesses but no, it's BJ Penn +400! He's finally getting a wrestler and should get to show off his world class BJJ, showing everyone why they call him the prodigy.

I'm kidding of course. I put 5k on Talita Bernardo -155. Simply put it's a purple belt guard player vs a black belt top player, where the black belt also holds a significant striking advantage. Gatto has one slim path to victory, a guard sub. Talita has very heavy hips, staying tight to her opponent and constantly looking to quickly smash through her opponents guards. She's already faced two girls with much more dangerous guards in Reneau and Moras, only losing to Reneau due to cardio issues on short notice in her debut. Talita has a great variety of TDs that she lands with high accuracy, and Gatto has non-existent TDD. In the off chance she ends up on her back she'll quickly look to sweep and control the scramble.

I cap her around -900 and had no issues dropping 10u at -155.
Click to expand...

I'll add that Talita's striking and cardio has improved greatly from the Marion fight (short notice) to the Moras fight. She was noticeably leaner against Aldana and Moras. Also, in relation to the guard sub being the big worry, her perferred single outside leg trip takedown usually lands her in side control. Her preferred positions on the ground seem to be a deep half guard and side control, even going north south at times. She outgrappled a proven high level black belt in Marion while fresh who is so much physcially stronger than Gatto. All in here, 10.5u -152, but will be arbing down to 7.5u most likely.

To further the wmma train, I have 5u on Aldana -210 and 1.5u Luana +167.
 
No surprises that line is already steamed to -225 by the time it's available down under. Our books just wait for the dust to settle on openers you guys get then copy + paste. So frustrating haha
 
how does aldana lose to correia?
 
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