Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Apr 7, 2019.
This card mmmmmmmmmmmakes me haaaaaaappy
anyone have any strong leanings on the aldo x volkanovski. For me rn, I am leaning aldo mainly on the fact that alex probably does not have anyone similar to train with that explosive skill set/aggression. Aldo tdd is good, if volkanovski decides to wrestle. Only possible edge for alex might be him keying on some striking tendencies of aldo, but that is not something that we know atm.
Aldo gonna wreck imo. Only Holloway could just about beat Aldo inside 3 and I don't think Volk is anywhere near as good as him.
Am i alone in thinking 44 year old Silva is getting way too much love at +200?
its where I thought it would be but probably gonna get better. totally playable because if he can dance around 3 rounds Rio is gonna give it to him.
My initial thought is that it is a bit wide. He is obviously done as a top level fighter, but he is still a puzzle on the feet. Cannon will catch him if he clowns around, but if he fights long he could point fight to a dec or possibly KO Cannon.
No. And I bet with the name recognition, and that his last fight was a loss was to a guy that has an interim belt this will be bet down to <+150 in which case I will be big on Cannonier.
That guy is a damn freak at 185. I know it’s 1 fight and it was Branch, who somehow still catapults guys into top 10 MW despite having 1 MW Win. But still. If that same Cannonier keeps showing up he’ll be in title contention before we know it. I think he’ll eventually rush Silva with threats of take downs and close him and send him out of the octagon for good. Not play pattcakes and tae Kwon doe practice like Adesanya did.
Cannon odds are getting better. He's -192 now. I hope this line improves further
Looking to place a bet on Silva
Yeah I think Silva @+200 is quite wide, I got 1.5 units already at him @+185, I think this line will drop when we reach the week of the event. Yeah Cannonier is a very strong man, but Silva seems to be back in shape. And that guy has the biggest EGO of all mixed martials, no way he’s losing this in Brasil. He’s prob gonna bring the A game 44 year old Silva can bring, and tbh the UFC is going to matchup him with whoever he wanted after that whole favour of fighting Israel on Australia. So IMO, Cannonier was selected bc he will bring a fun fight, is a guy with a name and it will be an interesting fight, can very well win, but prob will lose and not spoil the Brasil party.
Same thing with Aldo vs Volkanoviski, Alex is dangerous and can win this, but probably Aldo gets the W.
My thoughts are the UFC gave guys that will make great fights, and probably will lose. Instead of going the route of selecting complete cans that are just going to get crushed.
Hitting Silva and Aldo fairly hard. Got Aldo -110 & +100 though, and waiting to add more on the KO side.
Aldo's nowhere near as shot as the Mendes that lost to Volkanovski, and I don't think Volk can weather the storm for 10 mins to gas Aldo out and maybe get a come-from-behind KO win. He's not an elite striker, and Holloway absorbed multiple fight-enders in both fights to exhaust Aldo.
Cannonier's never beat a Southpaw, Silva will de-facto win a decision in Brazil.
Maybe its just David Branch being terribly overrated, but watch Cannonier in that fight. It's his MW debut and he looked scary. That combo vs. an aged Silva... I know he'll bring his A game but I think he's gonna get pressured, caught, and KOed.
Would u mind elaborating on this further? I respect your opinion so hearing this catches my eye because im leaning 5U Cannonier
Im already aware of the hometown danger if this goes to decision of course
Agree with favouring Silva, Cannonier isn't great at all and the only 2 southpaws he faced KO'd him in R1. Besides that Silva is just a much better overall fighter, not that he'll likely use it but he has a huge advantage grappling and is more than technical enough to stop Cannonier landing the one big shot he needs. Also Silva's chin looks good still, he got slightly rocked vs Izzy but we just saw Izzy do more damage to Gastelum than anyone ever came close to before.
Cannonier got a good win over David Branch but I don't rate it particularly highly, Branch won the first round and got caught after disengaging terribly and just pausing with his chin up. It was Branch making a huge mistake more than anything not Cannonier being great.
Currently 2u on Silva at +150, cap him closer -130
Do you rate the Silva / izzy fight as anything more than an exhibition? Thats how that fight felt to me
I think Izzy was throwing with fight ending intent but may of been a little off given how he feels about Silva personally but I think he handled it well.
Think people assume Silva will have a shot chin because of his age but he's still been solid taking hard shots from Brunson and Izzy. Makes sense really given how defensively sound he was throughout his career.
He's certainly a bit slower but the level of striking technique he has will never fade so he can present a lot of technical problmes to anyone. Certainly more than enough to be a nightmare for Cannonier to figure out.
Course there is the concern about Silva trying to play games and getting caught though.
Aldo, I'm waiting on the knee injury news. If he gets to the fight healthy I cap him around -175, maybe -200 so I will be on for a few units on current odds (-110).
Cannon has fought at HW, he wrestled Ion to a decision at 205 and just KO'd Branch at MW. Dude is 35 but he's no way near as weathered as Spider; I really hope this gets to a pick em (wishful thinking?)
I could see it getting there. No risk on waiting if you’re on the Cannonier side of things. Won’t get worse.
Volkanovski is tough but he ate some bombs from Mendez. I think those Aldo Bombs get him. But he’ll take one to give one. May be good value on FDNGD but I have 3u on Aldo at -115 already.