UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier II Official Bets

[Deleted member 560591]

Took a small L but I was expecting it lol. I never hit 5 events in a row.

The betmma.tips admin is being a little cunt and doesn’t want to delete my cashed out Anders bet even though I sent him a screenshot days before, so it should be - 0.72u.

I had 4 confident picks for this event which were Adesanya, Montel, Grant & Nikita-OSP not going the distance. The degen in me wanted more though lol and I was confident Grant would knock Jouban into space but Jouban seems to have conditioned his chin and he fought scared. Expected Montel to finish, too. I was a little disappointed from his finishing instinct on the ground.

 

[Sadistics]

Holloway DEC +322 $200
Holloway/Poirier O2.5 -145 $500

Adesanya -180 $2000
Adesanya DEC +255 $100
Gastelum NSC -105 $525
Adesanya/Gastelum O3.5 -117 $160

Anders -145 $1600
Anders/Rountree O1.5 -117 $160
Anders/Rountree GTD +175 $100

Jouban +112 $900
Grant NSC -145 $360
Grant ITD +188 $200

Krylov/OSP U1.5 -106 $250

Frevola/Turner DNGTD -175 $525
Frevola ITD +253 $45

Reis +173 $400
Reis/Pantoja O2.5 -263 $300

Imadaev +120 $100
Imadaev DEC +600 $100

Salmon -127 $200

Muhammad -120 $800
Millender NSC +105 $100

Botelho -147 $250
Botelho KO +325 $45

Davis -114 $750


I'm about set. With so much time between the fights and when I taped them my confidence is waning. Reduced my risk on a couple fights and added some hedges. Interested in adding a bit to Zelim, Botelho, and maybe Salmon if odds significantly improve.

-$2169. No offense to any other Anders bettors, but that was a truly awful bet on my part. Regardless of Khalil looking like a completely different fighter and Anders doing fuck all besides 1 half assed TD attempt, he's just not a fighter to trust.

This break was unhealthy for my BR, way too many dumb forced bets. This Russia card doesn't look great but I'm loving the following one.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

My buddy Paul!

As I said, I didn’t bother adding it up so thanks for spending your precious, fleeting time on this Earth doing it for me. You’re a pretty neat guy Paul!

Ok, back to the old ignore list for you.

I doubt I'm on your ignore list but you certainly know you're on mine. However, I was curious how you would do without being able to leech off me, and with the other person you leech from (@Sadistics) not doing so well.

Surprise surprise, you did horribly. And then compounded it by lying about how you did, when it took all of a minute to add up your bets and realize you lost 8 units, not "0.7".

It truely is a wonder why he has you on his ignore list.

What? No lecturing your bosom buddy Steve on the "awful bankroll management" in putting 8u on each of the title fights, including 7u on the Adesanya ML at horrendous odds even with a parlay?

 

[Cockadoodle]

Porier ML 1u for 2.16u
Holloway r4,5 Dec 2u for 3.26u
Holloway/Poirier FOTN 1u for 2.1u

Adesanya ML 3u for 1.62u

Anders ML 3u for 2.01u
Anders/Rountree GTD 1u for 1.76u

Jouban ML 1u for .96u

Turner r1,2 1u for 1.87u

Reis ML 1u for 1.53u

Imadaev ML 2u for 1.92u

Salmon ML 1u for .72u

Muhammad Sub .5u for 3u

Davis ML 3u for 1.88u
Davis Sub .25u for 2u

Good luck everyone, am out of town hopefully can catch some of the show

Lost a lot of bets on this one but managed to come out with unscathed with a 1.3u profit. Been busy the past couple weeks and def didnt do enough tape on the prelims.
Only managed to catch the Izzy fight which was a war, respect to both fighters.
Am on holiday now so probably wont bother with the next card but good luck to everyone!

 

[Bastaille]

Izzy 1500 to win 855

Botelho 240 to win 140

Reis 220 to win 385

Anders 500 to win 260

+275$, i will never bet anders ever again. 4 str8 winning events for me so i’m happy with my results.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I doubt I'm on your ignore list but you certainly know you're on mine. However, I was curious how you would do without being able to leech off me, and with the other person you leech from (@Sadistics) not doing so well.

Surprise surprise, you did horribly. And then compounded it by lying about how you did, when it took all of a minute to add up your bets and realize you lost 8 units, not "0.7".

("Ignored User..." Goddammit, sorry everyone, but how can I resist...)

Too much vodka today there bud? I said, a few times now, I didn't bother adding it up because I was pissed at how bad it was. It was a rough night. However, and you may want to close one eye if the screen is wobbly because this is the last time I'll say this now. Like I do every week, I show my tally for the pre-posted lines and then a final for all my add-ons. Sue me, but I just did the final tally this event. 0.7u. Wanna move on with your life now? If you think I'm lying I'd be happy to send you a spreadsheet and all screenshots of my bets from the books. You can see how heavily I chased on Iz. C'mon, call my bluff. Send me an e-mail address.

I "leech" off @JimGunn @Sadistics @Jordan3399 etc etc etc? Guys who post results week-in, week-out with excellent results, going back years some of them? I'm proud to be called out for doing that. Those guys are excellent resources. Why would you think I care about being called out that I tail sometimes? Speaks to your smug arrogance. Now let's examine your's, some kind of russian uber mathematician that you are. Let's all please keep in mind he is a 2% unit size (fwiw I'm a too conservative ~0.5%, with a small (maybe getting to medium now) $ sizing, and a betting vs. real life bankroll that is around the 0.03% mark). Behold:

6.8u on Mazo at -160/-145
3.3u on Schilling/Berry under 1.5 rounds at -165
"-11.5 units on the night and tied for my worst betting card ever"
"I might have to adjust my unit levels down"
"25 units on Mandel Nallo at +105 against Carrington Banks. I also bet 12 units on Tito to beat Chuck at -200."
Can't forget my bff @Jordan3399 's fav: 5u Max Griffin for spite because I'm smarter than everyone in the forum.

We all make poor plays but look at some of those. Just ridiculous. You've done us all a favour by not posting as much anymore. Some poor newbie might believe your ravings. You have all makings for a guy who disappears one day because he's tilted and lost it all. I'm looking forward to that day. Go ahead and cherry pick my bad plays if you want. I don't care. My $/% make anything you dig up meaningless to me.

We can wave our dicks at one another with past bets all we want but in the end you're this guy:
-Argue with everyone.
-Never wrong.
-People are "suspicious" if posting giant parlays/bets that hit after the fact.
-People are "scumbags, lowlifes, liars, idiots, detestable." You're gonna need a bigger thesaurus.
-Hangs on to small tidbits of info to attack people with personally.

You're a joke.

Why did you have to bother me? It was pleasant for a while. Now I'm wasting my life. Go away.


(Sorry guys)

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

("Ignored User..." Goddammit, sorry everyone, but how can I resist...)

Too much vodka today there bud? I said, a few times now, I didn't bother adding it up because I was pissed at how bad it was. It was a rough night. However, and you may want to close one eye if the screen is wobbly because this is the last time I'll say this now. Like I do every week, I show my tally for the pre-posted lines and then a final for all my add-ons. Sue me, but I just did the final tally this event. 0.7u. Wanna move on with your life now?

It's amazing how you continue to dodge and distract from the simple reality; your post about your bets adds up to a loss of 8 units. Crying and whining won't change that. Getting aggravated and personally attacking me won't change that. It only exposes you even more as a liar and a fraud.

You're not even a good liar. You could have taken a page from your boy @Jordan3399 and claimed you had made a fortune in live-betting, or had put a bunch of extra, unlisted bets that made you an extra 7.3 units.

If you think I'm lying I'd be happy to send you a spreadsheet and all screenshots of my bets from the books. You can see how heavily I chased on Iz. C'mon, call my bluff. Send me an e-mail address.

I "leech" off @JimGunn @Sadistics @Jordan3399 etc etc etc? Guys who post results week-in, week-out with excellent results, going back years some of them? I'm proud to be called out for doing that. Those guys are excellent resources. Why would you think I care about being called out that I tail sometimes? Speaks to your smug arrogance. Now let's examine your's, some kind of russian uber mathematician that you are. Let's all please keep in mind he is a 2% unit size (fwiw I'm a too conservative ~0.5%, with a small (maybe getting to medium now) $ sizing, and a betting vs. real life bankroll that is around the 0.03% mark). Behold:

6.8u on Mazo at -160/-145
3.3u on Schilling/Berry under 1.5 rounds at -165
"-11.5 units on the night and tied for my worst betting card ever"
"I might have to adjust my unit levels down"
"25 units on Mandel Nallo at +105 against Carrington Banks. I also bet 12 units on Tito to beat Chuck at -200."
Can't forget my bff @Jordan3399 's fav: 5u Max Griffin for spite because I'm smarter than everyone in the forum.

We all make poor plays but look at some of those. Just ridiculous. You've done us all a favour by not posting as much anymore.

I must admit; you're certainly brazen. It takes real balls to write those last three lines considering how often you would copy my plays in the past. Clearly, sour grapes at no longer being able to profit from me while talking shit.

Anywho, despite some unfortunate luck this year (the Griffin-Alves robbery was a 8 unit swing and the Rothwell-Ivanov one a 7 unit swing) and some legitimate mistakes in my gambling approach, I'm up 6 units for the year. Not great, but keep in mind these are all based on my own analysis, not copied from anyone else's.

Some poor newbie might believe your ravings. You have all makings for a guy who disappears one day because he's tilted and lost it all. I'm looking forward to that day. Go ahead and cherry pick my bad plays if you want. I don't care. My $/% make anything you dig up meaningless to me.

We can wave our dicks at one another with past bets all we want but in the end you're this guy:
-Argue with everyone.
-Never wrong.
-People are "suspicious" if posting giant parlays/bets that hit after the fact.
-People are "scumbags, lowlifes, liars, idiots, detestable." You're gonna need a bigger thesaurus.
-Hangs on to small tidbits of info to attack people with personally.

You're a joke.

Why did you have to bother me?

You know the answer to this, scumbag Steve.

You insulted and mocked me when I had a bad gambling night, a clear no-no on this subforum. I promised you I would return the favor when I had a good night and you had a lousy one.

Luckily, I didn't realize you would make my task EVEN easier by lying about your results.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I give you the option to get proof to show you -0.7u down to the penny and instead you reinforce my post about preferring to be a cunt. Why would I lie? It doesn’t matter to me.

“Chased like a savage on Israel.” “Bought into DP live to hedge down Max.” Go look through the PBP thread and you’ll see both these, time stamped.

And since no-no’s are out between us, you went from a “quadrupled” bankroll to allegedly +6u? Quit while you’re ahead bud.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Wait wait, didn't you have me blocked? Weren't you going to ignore you?

At least TRY to stick to your lies for more than a single post.

I give you the option to get proof to show you -0.7u down to the penny and instead you reinforce my post about preferring to be a cunt. Why would I lie? It doesn’t matter to me.

“Chased like a savage on Israel.” “Bought into DP live to hedge down Max.”

Yeah, you claimed the Poirier live bet was "moderate". As for Israel, were you betting around 20 total units on him? That's how much you would need for the numbers to make sense. And if that's the case,

1. HAHAHAHA. You're a true clown, especially given your last post criticizing my plays. 20 units on Israel Adesanya at -200/-160 is comical.
2. When can we expect your friend @Jordan3399 to lecture you about horrendous, moronic bankroll management?

And since no-no’s are out between us, you went from a “quadrupled” bankroll to allegedly +6u? Quit while you’re ahead bud.

This seems like a poor attempt at projecting your own habit of lying onto others, but I will answer it for the sake of openness.

I tripled my bankroll from when I started betting in mid-October of 2018 to the end of 2018.

At one point earlier in the year, when I was up 17 units in 2019, I had quadrupled by bankroll from when I started. Since that time, I have lost some units, and am only 6 units up for the year.

Better hope Sadistics continues to do well and posts his picks early, Scumbag Steve! After all, who else are you going to leech from otherwise?

 

[Soccer Steve]

Wait wait, didn't you have me blocked? Weren't you going to ignore you?

At least TRY to stick to your lies for more than a single post.



Yeah, you claimed the Poirier live bet was "moderate". As for Israel, were you betting around 20 total units on him? That's how much you would need for the numbers to make sense. And if that's the case,

1. HAHAHAHA. You're a true clown, especially given your last post criticizing my plays. 20 units on Israel Adesanya at -200/-160 is comical.
2. When can we expect your friend @Jordan3399 to lecture you about horrendous, moronic bankroll management?



This seems like a poor attempt at projecting your own habit of lying onto others, but I will answer it for the sake of openness.

I tripled my bankroll from when I started betting in mid-October of 2018 to the end of 2018.

At one point earlier in the year, when I was up 17 units in 2019, I had quadrupled by bankroll from when I started. Since that time, I have lost some units, and am only 6 units up for the year.

Better hope Sadistics continues to do well and posts his picks early, Scumbag Steve! After all, who else are you going to leech from otherwise?

Goodbye Paul. It’s been...pathetic.

 

[Jordan3399]

Goodbye Paul. It’s been...pathetic.

I quite enjoyed that lol

Get the feeling the humour might drift comfortably over @PolarBearPaulVarelans, who also, 6u?! All year?! What happened to all the 'I've tripled my bankroll already' shit you were coming out with? It's like you made a load of dumb massive bets early got lucky and thought you were great. If only you'd listened to someone who politely pointed out months ago how that streak wouldn't last and you should be more careful with your bankroll.

You want to be so independent but I guarantee that every decent bettor uses the opinions of others in their analysis, even if they are selective with it. Criticising Steve for it makes you just makes you look arrogant, if a bunch of guys with 18%+ ROI's start all making the same bet I suggest you don't question a thing and jump on the bandwagon. You'll appreciate it financially in the long-term.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I quite enjoyed that lol

Get the feeling the humour might drift comfortably over @PolarBearPaulVarelans, who also, 6u?! All year?! What happened to all the 'I've tripled my bankroll already' shit you were coming out with? It's like you made a load of dumb massive bets early got lucky and thought you were great. If only you'd listened to someone who politely pointed out months ago how that streak wouldn't last and you should be more careful with your bankroll.

You want to be so independent but I guarantee that every decent bettor uses the opinions of others in their analysis, even if they are selective with it. Criticising Steve for it makes you just makes you look arrogant, if a bunch of guys with 18%+ ROI's start all making the same bet I suggest you don't question a thing and jump on the bandwagon. You'll appreciate it financially in the long-term.

We've all heard your tiresome bullshit a thousand times already, whether towards me, @Rickson, or @Cockadoodle.

More relevantly, are you going to "politely" lecture @Soccer Steve about betting 20 units or more on Adesanya yesterday as you continually do towards me, even in topics I'm not involved in? Or are you just going to expose even more how much of a hypocrite, liar, and dumb kid you are?

 

[Jordan3399]

We've all heard your tiresome bullshit a thousand times already, whether towards me, @Rickson, or @Cockadoodle.

More relevantly, are you going to "politely" lecture @Soccer Steve about betting 20 units or more on Adesanya yesterday as you continually do towards me, even in topics I'm not involved in? Or are you just going to expose even more how much of a hypocrite, liar, and dumb kid you are?

Yes, yes, I'm so full of shit... for a start I have no idea how much @Soccer Steve bet on Izzy, even if he did have a significant amount on him at least the guys not running around the forum talking himself up as gods gift to bettors everywhere which is a pretty key difference as you habitually make bad decisions then talk about how great you are. Thats just laughable at this stage as you don't even have significant success to back up those practices and simply proves I was right all along.

Also, as sweet of you as it is to continually insult me, may I remind you that one of us is up 6u this year and the other 72u. Fundamentally, the vast majority of us are here for profit, and its pretty clear that we lie at opposite ends of the spectrum regarding that.

Frankly Paul, you're boring me. The delusion was entertaining but just getting sad now as any success you have had is slipping away rapidly and your left unprofitable yet arrogant as ever.

 

[AmericanBeauty]

100 Euro Poirier +180
100 Gastelum +150
50 Dwight Grant by Ko/Tko +175
150 Imadaev -125

-20