UFC 234 Whittaker vs Gastelum Official Bets

1.5u on Martinez at -145 (incredible that it's down to -120 and falling)
0.8u on Arnett at +275
4u on de la Rosa at -245
3.5u on Adesanya at -525 (incredibly at -450 now)

 

Rosa -240 4.8U
Simon -105 1.05U
Alvey +125 1U
Gatelum KO +365 0.3U
Paiva KO +1850 0.1U

 

Israel itd
Simon
Crute
Lando/Montana
Devonte itd
France by decision
Ishihara
Young by decision

 

UFC 234 Risk $5,372.15

Israel Adesanya/Anderson Silva Over 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Israel Adesanya wins by 3 round decision (+221) $50.00 for $110.50

Lando Vannata -3½ points (-300) vs Marcos Rosa $225.00 for $75.00
Lando Vannata wins by submission (+350) $50.00 for $175.00

Rani Yahya (+106) vs Ricky Simon $400.00 for $424.00
Rani Yahya wins by submission (+185) $125.00 for $231.25

Montana De La Rosa (-244) vs Nadia Kassem $487.80 for $200.00
Montana De La Rosa (-249) vs Nadia Kassem $996.00 for $400.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $250.00 for $100.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $250.00 for $100.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $500.00 for $200.00
Montana De La Rosa wins inside distance (+135) $75.00 for $101.25
Montana De La Rosa wins by submission (+160) $75.00 for $120.00
Montana De La Rosa wins by TKO/KO (+1387) $50.00 for $693.50
Montana De La Rosa/Nadia Kassem Under 2½ (+120) $100.00 for $120.00
Montana De La Rosa/Nadia Kassem Under 2½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Sam Alvey (+111) vs Jim Crute $200.00 for $222.00
Sam Alveys wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+251) $40.00 for $100.00
Sam Alvey wins in round 3 (+1150) $15.00 for $172.50

Devonte Smith (-245) vs Dong Hyun Kim $245.00 for $100.00
Devonte Smith wins by TKO/KO (-123) $30.75 for $25.00

Austin Arnett (+275) vs Shane Young $75.00 for $206.25
Austin Arnett wins inside distance (+1300) $20.00 for $260.00
Austin Arnett wins by TKO/KO (+2390) $10.00 for $239.00
Austin Arnett wins by submission (+1700) $10.00 for $170.00

Kai Kara France (-285) vs Raulian Paiva $570.00 for $200.00

Teruto Ishihara/Kyung Ho Kang Under 2½ (-122) $48.80 for $40.00

Callan Potter/Jalin Turner Under 1½ (-132) $52.80 for $40.00

Wuliji Buren (+135) vs Jonathan Martinez $100.00 for $135.00
Wuliji Buren/Jonathan Martinez Over 2½ (-240) $96.00 for $40.00

 

Decided to add 1.7u on Arnett-Young GTD at -170

 

...and I added another 1.5u on Adesanya at -455.

So overall, I scored 4/5 and +4.8u. Adding in Bellator from earlier, and that's +6.8u for the day.

Regrets are not going heavier on some of those bets, or grabbing even better odds. Reads were on-point.

 

Ended up the least possible plus, 0.25U, but it’s still more than I had yesterday so I’ll take it.

 

+$5826. Would've been another $1850~ if the Turner KO bet wasn't voided (Which they confirmed was legit). $360 worth of parlays with 2/3 legs down as a bonus for next week. Great night and a decent card for how weak it looked on paper.

 

I am down just under 4 units for the event, combined with the Bellator bets down 2u for the day.
Gutted the main event didnt happen, tho happy the Kiwi boys all won.
Learnings from this one because I was betting on favorites the returns werent enough to cover my props which failed. Next time reduce prop amount or increase ML bet. (or chose winning props next time
See you all in the next chat

 

Just under 8 units plus another 2.5 on the Bellator card tonight. Well done all!

 

I'd like to honor the man @Larthus who correctly predicted a night of exciting fights. Well done sir.

 

If only this prediction could bandage my bleeding BR from the past 2 events. I actually didn’t bet this card, but of course the picks I had in my mind won.

Can’t wait to return to betting the next card & have my asshole torn open again.

 

Montana De La Rosa came through exactly as expected and the main and revised co-main events worked out perfectly as well, so despite the title fight falling out, ending up with 15.46 units profit made for an entertaining and successful evening.

UFC 234 Results Risk $5,372.15

Israel Adesanya/Anderson Silva Over 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Israel Adesanya wins by 3 round decision (+221) $50.00 for $110.50= $110.50

Lando Vannata -3½ points (-300) vs Marcos Rosa $225.00 for $75.00= $75.00
Lando Vannata wins by submission (+350) $50.00 for $175.00= $175.00

Rani Yahya (+106) vs Ricky Simon $400.00 for $424.00= -$400.00
Rani Yahya wins by submission (+185) $125.00 for $231.25= -$125.00

Montana De La Rosa (-244) vs Nadia Kassem $487.80 for $200.00= $200.00
Montana De La Rosa (-249) vs Nadia Kassem $996.00 for $400.00= $400.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $250.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $250.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Montana De La Rosa (-250) vs Nadia Kassem $500.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Montana De La Rosa wins inside distance (+135) $75.00 for $101.25= $101.25
Montana De La Rosa wins by submission (+160) $75.00 for $120.00= $120.00
Montana De La Rosa wins by TKO/KO (+1387) $50.00 for $693.50= -$50.00
Montana De La Rosa/Nadia Kassem Under 2½ (+120) $100.00 for $120.00= $120.00
Montana De La Rosa/Nadia Kassem Under 2½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00= $105.00

Sam Alvey (+111) vs Jim Crute $200.00 for $222.00= -$200.00
Sam Alveys wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+251) $40.00 for $100.00= -$40.00
Sam Alvey wins in round 3 (+1150) $15.00 for $172.50= -$15.00

Devonte Smith (-245) vs Dong Hyun Kim $245.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Devonte Smith wins by TKO/KO (-123) $30.75 for $25.00= $25.00

Austin Arnett (+275) vs Shane Young $75.00 for $206.25= -$75.00
Austin Arnett wins inside distance (+1300) $20.00 for $260.00= -$20.00
Austin Arnett wins by TKO/KO (+2390) $10.00 for $239.00= -$10.00
Austin Arnett wins by submission (+1700) $10.00 for $170.00= -$10.00

Kai Kara-France (-285) vs Raulian Paiva $570.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Live In-Play Kai Kara-France (+120) vs Raulian Paiva $200.00 for $240.00= $240.00

Teruto Ishihara/Kyung Ho Kang Under 2½ (-122) $48.80 for $40.00= $40.00

Callan Potter/Jalin Turner Under 1½ (-132) $52.80 for $40.00= $40.00

Wuliji Buren (+135) vs Jonathan Martinez $100.00 for $135.00= -$100.00
Wuliji Buren/Jonathan Martinez Over 2½ (-240) $96.00 for $40.00= $40.00
-----

Total Profit= $1,546.75

 

286,56.....would have made 586,56 if whittaker didnt get sick.

 

Can't see the fights, so I'm only play a couple of things and this parlay cover all my plays and a win of 150€

 

bet $25 on lando, won $31.5
bet $20 on shane young, won $25
bet $5 on silva, lost 5

up $6.5

 

That makes it look like you purposely wanted out of the L-Challenge, with your Ishihara pick
What was the matter, did the pressure being so far ahead mess with your head?

 

No, I really like to find a good underdog in every card, and I thought that Ishihara was the one good in this card, but well, I could pick a easy one, but, where is the fun in that?

 

1.63 profit with the Whittaker fight being voided. I should have only done one of those Yahya bets realistically, I just did the takedown one due to odds after already backing him SU. Wasn't sure if Simon could nullify that takedown threat, knew if he could it would be his fight to lose but yeah, he looked good.

Israel fight I wish I bet more on the other + decision lines. Knew it'd be more of a flashy staring match given their styles and Israel would be the one picking up the decision just by throwing a bit more and advancing.

Alvey fight was weird, he was clearly hurt (nice counter by Crute after Alveys fake to the body - though unsure why Alvey pulled the punch to go for the right hook since Crutes body was wide open for the left that he pulled) and I think was likely going to be done, but despite being hurt a lot of those shots were hitting the shoulder/arm once Alvey was sworking his way back up and giving the thumbs up (obviously the thumbs up is difficult to see in that split second when you're focused on seeing how many of those shots are landing). Didn't realise him and Goddard had previous regarding this, if that's the case I think you've got to be more lenient as a ref and allow it to be more definitive in the stoppage if a lot of the shots aren't landing clean, even if he is hurt.

 

3u Adesanya: KO/TKO @ 1.80 = -3u
0.25 Adesanya: Sub @ 31 = -0.25u
0.25u Silva: Sub @ 15 = -0.25u

2.25u Yahya @ 2.10 = -2.25u

2u De La Rosa: ITD @ 2.30 = +2.6u
2u De La Rosa: Sub @ 2.62 = +3.24u
0.25u De La Rosa KO/TKO @15 = -0.25u

2.5u Alvey @ 2.10 = -2.5u

1u Young: KO/TKO or Sub @ 3.10 = -1u
1u Arnett @ 3.25 = -1u

1u Dong Hyun Ma @ 2.87 = -1u
0.25u Dong Hyun Ma: Sub @ 14 = -0.25u

Total: -5.91u

Quite terrible event for me, I knew I hadn't researched enough but bet anyway. Not a good move... I added a small bet on Lando by submission, so the totally was more like 4u. Going to make sure to make more informed bets on the next event I bet on.