They do choreographed moves. They are athletic and take strength, skill, etc. But it is SO different maneuvering someone in a direction they don't want to go. Or baiting them to move where you want them. The nuances of real grappling take LONG time to become good at.
And here's the other thing: If Punk was some sort of uber-athlete that could just fall back on pure athleticism that would be one thing. With 2 guys this caliber, grappling will often not come down to technique (because neither is very good) but to sheer athletic ability. Punk is **probably** a better technical grappler than Jackson (and I'm only basing that on that he's trained grappling longer and trains full time now). But the skill gap in grappling is likely fairly small, and with low level guys like this that gap won't usually matter. It will just be two sub par guys who are worse athletes than almost everyone on the UFC roster who both use poor technique. That's IF the fight hits the mat.
But standing, we have Jackson who at least has boxing and kickboxing experience and has KO'd some bums. We know that while it's a striking match, Jackson has a decent edge. We don't know if Punk has any chance of getting it to the mat (he might, but we've never seen him even attempt one TD in an MMA fight have we?). And if he somehow does, we have no idea if he really will have enough of an edge on the mat (or any edge at all honestly) to allow him to win that part of the fight.
How could anyone bet on Punk here? I don't understand it. I can see passing for sure if you don't think Jackson just blasts Punk like I think he will. But I cannot see putting one dollar on Punk.
