UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

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Wondering if there's still value in Li at -200-odd. Get the feeling everyone's going to bet him up to around -400 come fight time.
 
I'm surprised that the over is set so low at 1½ in the interim MW title fight between Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold, so I really like it at -160. I don't see either one of these guys finishing each other that quickly and I would not be surprised to see this go the distance like Romero vs Whittaker did. My bet is 3.2 units to win 2 units.
Luke's chin doesn't worry you?
 
Wondering if there's still value in Li at -200-odd. Get the feeling everyone's going to bet him up to around -400 come fight time.
Rewatching the Nash & Camacho fights has me scratching my head as to why people think Li is gonna destroy Matthews
 
I'm surprised that the over is set so low at 1½ in the interim MW title fight between Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold, so I really like it at -160. I don't see either one of these guys finishing each other that quickly and I would not be surprised to see this go the distance like Romero vs Whittaker did. My bet is 3.2 units to win 2 units.

I'm with ya Jim. But why not hit Luke, as if it goes past 2 I think Luke has a much bigger advantage
 
Luke's chin doesn't worry you?
Luke only got KOed in the UFC by Bisping and his perfect punch combo and TRT-Vitor's spinning heel kick. So I wouldn't go writing his chin off as cracked yet at his age just based on those knockout losses. And Yoel is known as a round 3 finisher, not round 1. One could easily hedge a bit with Yoel in round 1 at what will surely be decent odds if one is worried about Yoel catching Luke early.
 
In Brazil, pick the Brazilian

Lyoto Machida vs. Eryk Anders
John Dodson vs. Pedro Munhoz
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Michel Prazeres vs. Desmond Green
Tim Johnson vs. Marcelo Golm
Thiago Santos vs. Anthony Smith
Sergio Moraes vs. Tim Means
Alan Patrick vs. Damir Hadzovic
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Marlon Vera
Iuri Alcantara vs. Joe Soto
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Morales
Maia Stevenson vs. Polyana Viana

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That was some great advice right there :)
 
I did put 6u on Rockhold at 2.00 earlier, hopefully I can get a good hedge with Romero ITD later on
 
Rewatching the Nash & Camacho fights has me scratching my head as to why people think Li is gonna destroy Matthews

Can you elaborate dude? Nash is a power puncher Matthews isnt. Li was wreckin him until he got caught but he still came back and wrecked him. Camacho has solid standup and again like nash hits hard. Matthews is very uncomfortable on the feet throws one strike at a time isnt a noted puncher and hates pressure backs up to the cage and squares up. Arreola nearly kod him kevin lee punched his mouthpiece out and holbrooks pressure gave him fits. This is the first time matthews is facing an aggressive power puncher and its at ww. I think the ufc have given up on him being a big star hence why he has a horrible stylistic fight for the first time (i know lee was too but i think the ufc faded him after the santos loss).
 
Like pedro too after tape. Safarov is game but man gasses so bad should be at mw and just is plain uurrgghh
 
Also like Li Jingliang at -185 over Jake Matthews. Jingliang is a hard puncher, excellent grinder and a good size welterweight while Matthews is a former lightweight who has looked good against the right opponents, especially where he had a ground advantage. Maxed a small opener on Jingliag ML risking 2.5 units to win 1.35 units.
 
Yes, Jingliang is a machine, 10u right now @ 1.50. Got to take the opportunity to get paid when these very strong guys get on. (Matthews is only 23 years old btw.)

I really like Kim against Brown. Of course Kim will be a big favorite though. Watched Kim's last three fights and Kim has matured; from a Gaethje-stand-and-trade against Polo Reyes to a calculated style with a lot of clinch and ground work against O'Reilly where Kim used his striking to get to clinch, staying busy in the clinch and then getting the TD. Good GnP while advancing. A few surprise-reversals though from O'Reilly, not exactly Khabib-control on the ground or in the clinch. Got reversed and ate some in the clinch at times. Last fight a fast TKO against Gomi.
Brown had one good round against Camacho - the first, a pretty nice submission attempt at the end of R1. Camacho got out and reversed though. Then R2 and R3 was clear rounds for Camacho, the split decision was horrible. Camacho outstruck Brown totally - more than double the strikes. All media had the right score - 29-28 Camacho. It was a war but Brown gassed completely and lost all footwork and defense while Camacho looked fresh all the way through. Brown ate a ton and this fight was in november 2017.
Browns fight before that was a KO-loss to fulltime-working Pichel who hadn't fought in three years. Brown looked pretty good until the KO but he was reckless with wild flurrys and walked right into Pichels fist.

I know a lot of people don't like to bet WMMA. I really like it though - a bummer we don't have a single one this card.

Last event was amazing for livebetting and my first time really doing that - albeit semiseriously. The PBP-thread really helped. The Johnson fight was the craziest odds-wise as people pointed out when it was happening - Johnson @ 5.1 on Bet365 when he was clearly in the lead executing a great game plan. Got 0.7u in @ 4.3 but looking to really do a conscious viewing this time and to pull the trigger a little more decisively. There was a lot of other great plays as people pointed out - Andrade looking stellar from the get go att great odds and Moraes at dog odds with the controversial, but somewhat predictable, split decision win. The Machida split was in the air too.
 
It is NEVER a bummer not having WMMA fights on a card...
 
Can you elaborate dude? Nash is a power puncher Matthews isnt. Li was wreckin him until he got caught but he still came back and wrecked him. Camacho has solid standup and again like nash hits hard. Matthews is very uncomfortable on the feet throws one strike at a time isnt a noted puncher and hates pressure backs up to the cage and squares up. Arreola nearly kod him kevin lee punched his mouthpiece out and holbrooks pressure gave him fits. This is the first time matthews is facing an aggressive power puncher and its at ww. I think the ufc have given up on him being a big star hence why he has a horrible stylistic fight for the first time (i know lee was too but i think the ufc faded him after the santos loss).

Because Li actually backs straight up against the cage when guys go at him. And that's exactly where Jake will want him. And I'm seriously afraid he could grind him on the cage or even score takedowns. Another robbery due to 2 of the rounds being close is very possible

It's not that Nash and Canacho have punching power. It's that they were able to grind Li against the cage and that's exactly what Jake will be doing non stop
 
It is NEVER a bummer not having WMMA fights on a card...
Speak for yourself, I'm up big time from betting the WMMA bouts this year. Get used to it because there will surely be a lot more WMMA in the UFC all year long now that they have the 115, 125 & 135 divisions and the occasional 145 bout. Won't be too long until they add a 105 pound division.
 
Speak for yourself, I'm up big time from betting the WMMA bouts this year. Get used to it because there will surely be a lot more WMMA in the UFC all year long now that they have the 115, 125 & 135 divisions and the occasional 145 bout. Won't be too long until they add a 105 pound division.
I should have said from a fan perspective really but even from a gambling perspective I'd happily give up those profits to have WMMA removed from the UFC forever.
 
I should have said from a fan perspective really but even from a gambling perspective I'd happily give up those profits to have WMMA removed from the UFC forever.
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but you're hoping against hope at this point. The percentage of female bouts on UFC cards this year will surely be much greater than ever before and probably even more next year.
 
I did put 6u on Rockhold at 2.00 earlier, hopefully I can get a good hedge with Romero ITD later on

that bisping left hook was brutal.

i think both rockhold and weidman are kos ready to happen. lukes whole body went limp like a sack of potatoes after bisping connected
 
pedro is a max bet. too many reasons to list. get your bets in the odds will not last! DYOR and you will see.
 
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