UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

[mkess101]

I think that the Luke Rockhold glass chin narrative is a little over done.

I agree. That said, I think if Romero lands flush it won't matter. Luke may be able to keep Yoel at bay with kicks. It sounds counter intuitive (to use kicks frequently) against such a decorated wrestler, but Yoel really hasn't shown that he's constantly looking for TD's.

 

[Naterade]

Anyone feel strongly or confident in Abe/Jumeau and Brown/Kim? No idea what to do on those yet.

Kim will win the fight but Brown will get the Decision

 

[Caicara]

@Oblivian Brown/Kim could be a draw or FOTN. They usually bring it.

 

[danareem]

Blaydes decision +240 on some bookies is a really good line, I think that's how he wins if not Mark stops him

 

[Oblivian]

Thanks for responses. I ended up playing Abe and Brown +3.5

 

[ill800]

Added

Hunt dec +550

Brown +3.5 -165

 

[Barkus]

Yoel missed weight - 188.

 

[t6p]

Romero in at 188. Has two hours to lose 3 lbs, says he's going back to the sauna.

 

[JMoore]

Romero in at 188. Has two hours to lose 3 lbs, says he's going back to the sauna.

The last like eight fighters that missed weight have won their fights. Im unsure if the trend continues here...

 

[turbozed]

Don't understand the line movement on Matthews/Jingliang. Looks like every single person on the forum is betting Jingliang (incl. some big ones in the official bets thread), yet his price has improved from around -200 to -150..??

Is there some secret betting forum in the dark web where everyone's dropping 6u plays on Matthews?

Yeah I been scratching my head on that one too. Something similar happened with Holm/Cyborg where almost all of us were on Cyborg.

For some reason on fight day, someone SLAMMED Holm resulting in a 90 point change and discount for Cyborg.

In that fight we had two inexplicable and inexcusable 48-47 scores for Holm, so the two may be related.

 

[ill800]

I think he can lose 3lbs in two hours.

He’s an Olympic wrestler

 

[ill800]

Yeah I been scratching my head on that one too. Something similar happened with Holm/Cyborg where almost all of us were on Cyborg.

For some reason on fight day, someone SLAMMED Holm resulting in a 90 point change and discount for Cyborg.

In that fight we had two inexplicable and inexcusable 48-47 scores for Holm, so the two may be related.

I thought holm arguably Won two rounds. At least 1

 

[OutRun]

a bloo bloo bloo bloo bloo

 

[t6p]

I think he can lose 3lbs in two hours.

He’s an Olympic wrestler

Probably, but at what cost to his already shaky cardio?

 

[JMoore]

I think he can lose 3lbs in two hours.

He’s an Olympic wrestler

Seems strange. I would think he would want as much time as possible between cutting and fighting.

 

[turbozed]

i like listening to their analysis but usually they're not great at picking winners in a gambling perspective (its not a betting podcast anyway). with that being said, i think they have a decent feel for picking dogs so i might have to look into the rockhold/romero bet again before i make it since they both picked romero

100%. They don't know much about implied odds, etc. but they (mostly Connor) are good at identifying when a largish underdog has a really good shot. Off the top of my head, they called Kattar/Filhi and Kim/Kish well.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Ball is in your court Yoel.

 

[PuertoRican]

Romero vs. Rockhold is for the fake belt, which essentially guarantees them a title shot when Whittaker returns to fighting.

If Romero beats Rockhold, he won't win the fake belt, but will still get the next shot at Whittaker (most likely).

If I were Romero, I'd just avoid cutting those last 3.3 pounds and keep my energy. That being said, iirc, people get extra money when they fight for a title ($30k-$50k?), so that might be enticing to cut the extra weight.

 

[ill800]

Probably, but at what cost to his already shaky cardio?

Probably no more than usual. His cardio can’t get much worse than it is. His build just isn’t cardio friendly

I would think rockholds gameplan is to take him into deep waters and try to not engage with him until later rounds. Use kick to control distance. Get him in the clinch and grapple with him when the distance closes.

 

[t6p]

Probably no more than usual. His cardio can’t get much worse than it is. His build just isn’t cardio friendly

I would think rockholds gameplan is to take him into deep waters and try to not engage with him until later rounds. Use kick to control distance. Get him in the clinch and grapple with him when the distance closes.

I disagree. Romero's best chance here is to land a kill shot and the sooner he gasses the less time he he'll have to do that. If he's going to drop another 3+ pounds at this stage of his cut, that's a significant amount and it will very likely affect his cardio. Meanwhile, Luke is already re-hydrating. This is a big advantage for Rockhold IMO.