UFC 220 - Miocic vs Ngannou - Boston

[mkess101]

So you like Volkan to survive for a bit, right?

He's $7000 on DraftKings. It allows you to do a lot with your team.

I'm still undecided how I'll play the fight.

Shit I've been forgetting about DK. I'll get signed up.

Yeah I think he survives for awhile. DC by stoppage is the most likely outcome, but I think it's ALMOST as likely that he wins by TKO than he does by sub. I just think that sub line is off.

I don't know if Volkan will score many DK pts though. 7k is cheap, yeah, but he probably either wins by first round KO and gets you 100+ pts, or gets dominated and scores you very little.

 

[iGnP]

Part of the reason I disagree is the TYPE of subs DC gets. They are all RNC's. And in order to get those, the other guy has to oblige. Any fighter with the slightest clue can avoid the RNC if they want. Now, often they then get flattened out and pounded out, but that's how a lot of guys choose to go out.

Rumble wanted out of both fights right? Not trying to trash him, but he just decided he was done and didn't even try to stop DC getting the RNC. Hendo too, ableit to a lesser degree. Not sure about DC's old sub.

To me, just way too many different ways this fight can end to cap it anywhere near what the odds suggest for DC winning by sub. Just how I see it.

DC via RNC is the most likely scenario IMO (I bet DC DEC @ +4xx though)

 

[SBJJ]

DC has 1 fight that went under 1.5 at LHW. 1 fight that went under 1.5 in the last 6 years

 

[mkess101]

@mkess101 hey man NOT Volkan SUB might have value too at -9600. Think about it, DC has never been subbed and I dont think I've ever seen Volkan go for a sub.

Ha ha hmm...

So you think DC winning by sub is capped pretty close to correctly? This fight ends in a DC sub about 40% of the time? It's not a crazy opinion to think that or anything (EZ does), I just think it's off.

 

[mkess101]

DC via RNC is the most likely scenario IMO (I bet DC DEC @ +4xx though)

Okay. It can be the most likely scenario and still be capped wrong (which is why you are playing his dec line obviously).

You agree Rumble just wanted out and straight up gave his neck to DC both times right? I mean, we all saw that. He easily could have decided to to defend the choke and made DC pound him out. A lot of guys go out that way when they get their back taken. We just assume if DC gets Volkan's back he's securing the choke? Seems like flawed thinking to me.

 

[iGnP]

Ha ha hmm...

So you think DC winning by sub is capped pretty close to correctly? This fight ends in a DC sub about 40% of the time? It's not a crazy opinion to think that or anything (EZ does), I just think it's off.

i touched on it in my other post but yeah, i think the price is accurate

 

[iGnP]

Okay. It can be the most likely scenario and still be capped wrong (which is why you are playing his dec line obviously).

You agree Rumble just wanted out and straight up gave his neck to DC both times right? I mean, we all saw that. He easily could have decided to to defend the choke and made DC pound him out. A lot of guys go out that way when they get their back taken. We just assume if DC gets Volkan's back he's securing the choke? Seems like flawed thinking to me.

I just feel like you're forcing a bet. Do we have any tape on how Volkan reacts with someone raining punches on him? Do we know how accomplished of a grappler he is to start off with? IDK, IMO you're making a lot of assumptions with really nothing to back it up here except the idea that because AJ gave up his neck twice, this line is overvalued. I mean yeah it could be but I do think its the most likely scenario. I know there's a lot different between our two bets but I'd feel a lot less sad losing my DC DEC bet than you will losing your NOT DC SUB bet

 

[SBJJ]

Okay. It can be the most likely scenario and still be capped wrong (which is why you are playing his dec line obviously).

You agree Rumble just wanted out and straight up gave his neck to DC both times right? I mean, we all saw that. He easily could have decided to to defend the choke and made DC pound him out. A lot of guys go out that way when they get their back taken. We just assume if DC gets Volkan's back he's securing the choke? Seems like flawed thinking to me.

Volk doesn't strike me as a quitter. I think he will fight to stay in the fight even if super fatigued

I like the over & DC decision

 

[mkess101]

Amazing, as we debated this MORE money in on DC sub. It's down to +121 now. At those odds, that outcome has to happen over 45% of the time. HIs KO/TKO line is +375. So it pays over 3 times as much as his sub line. And he has way more TKO's on his record than he does subs. Yes, 3 of his subs have come in the UFC, but like I said 2 were just given to him by a guy who wanted the easiest way out he could find.

I'm baffled.

Which means...DC by RNC is a LOCK now LOL...

 

[PuertoRican]

Shit I've been forgetting about DK. I'll get signed up.

Yeah I think he survives for awhile. DC by stoppage is the most likely outcome, but I think it's ALMOST as likely that he wins by TKO than he does by sub. I just think that sub line is off.

I don't know if Volkan will score many DK pts though. 7k is cheap, yeah, but he probably either wins by first round KO and gets you 100+ pts, or gets dominated and scores you very little.

On some recent podcast, someone mentioned "DC's style of wrestling doesn't allow for many TDs or passes." He essentially keeps holding/tripping you into position when you try to get up, and throws baby punches at you to keep busy.

DC by submission is the only bet I'd make on him.

 

[mkess101]

I just feel like you're forcing a bet. Do we have any tape on how Volkan reacts with someone raining punches on him? Do we know how accomplished of a grappler he is to start off with? IDK, IMO you're making a lot of assumptions with really nothing to back it up here except the idea that because AJ gave up his neck twice, this line is overvalued. I mean yeah it could be but I do think its the most likely scenario. I know there's a lot different between our two bets but I'd feel a lot less sad losing my DC DEC bet than you will losing your NOT DC SUB bet

We don't know how Volkan reacts, that's sort of my point. What I'm saying is that of all the scenarios that are possible in a fight, these odds suggest 40% will be a DC sub. AJ did give his neck up twice, which leaves DC with 2 other sub wins in about a 20 fight career. So if we don't know how Volkan reacts, wouldn't the TKO line at +375 make way more sense for DC than his sub line at +136 (now +121!). Yeah, I made the more conservative play, I get it. I'm covered on DC TKO, dec, Volkan somehow winning, or a random DQ, draw, or NC.

Also, I do have the o1.5 total sub prop. So unless DC hits the ONLY sub on the card, I'm not losing much either way.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

If Tibau was the only person to have a close fight vs Khabib, how is he such a big underdog vs a budget version of Khabib

 

[iGnP]

We don't know how Volkan reacts, that's sort of my point. What I'm saying is that of all the scenarios that are possible in a fight, these odds suggest 40% will be a DC sub. AJ did give his neck up twice, which leaves DC with 2 other sub wins in about a 20 fight career. So if we don't know how Volkan reacts, wouldn't the TKO line at +375 make way more sense for DC than his sub line at +136 (now +121!). Yeah, I made the more conservative play, I get it. I'm covered on DC TKO, dec, Volkan somehow winning, or a random DQ, draw, or NC.

Also, I do have the o1.5 total sub prop. So unless DC hits the ONLY sub on the card, I'm not losing much either way.

No, when was the last time DC has finished a fight by TKO by landing punches in guard? DC knocking Volkan standing is HIGHLY unlikely

 

[NinjaCat456]

If Tibau was the only person to have a close fight vs Khabib, how is he such a big underdog vs a budget version of Khabib

Well that fight was over 5 years ago for a start, ie pre-usada.

 

[mkess101]

No, when was the last time DC has finished a fight by TKO by landing punches in guard? DC knocking Volkan standing is HIGHLY unlikely

Didn't mean in guard necessarily. If we assume DC sub really means DC by RNC (not sure what other sub we could possibly envision him getting--or even trying for that matter) then we're assuming he takes Volkan's back at some point. Since we don't know how Volkan will react to it (as we agreed before) if DC flattens him out and starts landing punches, I'd take my chances with Volkan covering up and being TKO'd at +375 over him giving up his neck at +121. More likely he gives up his neck in that scenario (with us not really knowing)? Yeah, I'd agree with that. Over THREE TIMES more likely? No way.

 

[NinjaCat456]

To me, just way too many different ways this fight can end to cap it anywhere near what the odds suggest for DC winning by sub. Just how I see it.

Not ruling out a decision or even another Volkan fluke. But realistically, how many different ways are there, bearing in mind DC is not only a heavy favourite but also odds-on to win inside the distance? Assuming most of us agree the lines are accurate, that leaves two very likely outcomes. And DC has an equal number of KO/TKO's and submissions on his record (Granted two of his 6 sub wins were submissions due to strikes but still).

We also don't know how Volkan is going to react if he's getting dominated. He could look for a way out too.

 

[mkess101]

Not ruling out a decision or even another Volkan fluke. But realistically, how many different ways are there, bearing in mind DC is not only a heavy favourite but also odds-on to win inside the distance? Assuming most of us agree the lines are accurate, that leaves two very likely outcomes. And DC has an equal number of KO/TKO's and submissions on his record.

We also don't know how Volkan is going to react if he's getting dominated. He could look for a way out too.

Right. He COULD. Or...maybe not. Do we know?

Let's assume DC itd is a given (even though that's insane and we know it isn't). EVEN if we just assume DC stops Volkan, do we really think that sub is MORE THAN THREE TIMES as likely as a TKO?

Maybe I'm the crazy one, but I think that is just ridiculous.

For the record, tapping to strikes are pretty much all counted as TKO's now for betting purposes. So taking that into account, DC has WAY more TKO's than he does subs on his record. Granted, the subs are more recent. But as I've stated a few times, 2 of those 3 subs in the UFC were against a guy who flat out was looking for a way out. So much so in his last fight that we found out afterward that he didn't even want to fight anymore...GOING INTO THAT FIGHT!

This line is literally priced now as if DC is a freakish sub machine who only looks for TD's and subs going against a guy who we are sure is clueless on the mat. We don't see guys like Maia, Mir, or Jacare have sub lines at +120, even when they are big favorites.

I'm gonna most likely get burned here because I've yapped so much about this (and maybe I'll deserve it ha ha) but this line makes ZERO sense as it stands. +121???? People are crazy if they ever considered it. Even if it wins.

 

[Obsidian Fracture]

DC to finish by sub seems most likely, especially considering he has the ability to wear people out to force a sub opening with his grappling and GnP.

The DC sub price is pretty average now, the TKO price definitely has better value. I'd say DC ITD is the best bet, but I'm staying away from it for now because it's not paying great.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

I have to play Tibau now that he's at +230. There are obviously red flags on him here, but he looked good at the early weigh-in and unless he's fallen off a cliff I think this is likely going to be a competitive fight. If Makhachev is able to out grapple him, I believe he'd be the first to do so and I think it's close standing.

So yea, 1u Tibau ML and and tiny stab at his sub prop at +1805 too since there will probably be quite a few grappling exchanges.

Expecting many takedowns or they gonna cancel each other out a bit? Need some help for my draft kings.

 

[NewcastleTom]

You guys are probably too young but Ngganou gives off a Mike Tyson vibe - although Tyson moreso, he didn't have to worry about wrestling. But there has to be a little bit of fear against him like there was with Tyson. apprehension at least. Maybe not Stipe but... I mean people are going into a fight that people Cap it at 65% they will get knocked cold