UFC 220 - Miocic vs Ngannou - Boston

[ill800]

I can definitely understand playing Kattar at his current price, but what makes you think Burgos has weak wrestling? And why is it relevant to this fight, which is very likely going to be a kickboxing match?

For reference, in his first 3 UFC fights, Burgos has stuffed 31 of 33 takedown attempts. I would argue that his counter wrestling is very good to excellent.

I think Kattar is a smart fighter and will look to score oppurtunistic takedowns, possibly near the end of rounds to try to sway judging.

Me saying burgos wrestling is weak is an overstatement and basically just a reaction to something he probably doesn’t like to do.

Honestly I haven’t seen enough of him to say his wrestling is weak

 

[mkess101]

So, I could be dead wrong about this due to variance alone, but I think betting Ngganou round 1 is gonna be a mistake, especially with the shit odds we have. Ngganou looks to be a counter striker first and foremost. Yes, Stipe has historically shown to be an aggressive fighter but I dont think he's going to employ that same game plan here. It takes two to tango and this fight has the makings of a lot of feeling out early. With that being said, I think I finally decided how I am going to play this game.

The only pre-fight bet I'm going to have is a bet on Ngganou round 2 at (+475). If Stipe gets through 2 rounds, Ill LB him. If Ngannou KOs Stipe in the first, well, small loss. If Ngganou knocks Stipe out in rounds 3-5, well, im taking the L on this one.

I know its the cheapest way to play Ngganou, but that round 1 prop at +130 (currently) is terrible value IMO with Ngganou never showing the ability to lead in a fight and relying on his opponents giving him an opening. More so, Blaydes and Henrique both got through the first round against Ngganou in their respective fights. IDK, how impressive is KOing Overeem and AA when we both know both of them have paper-mache chins

I don't hate the play. I tend to agree, there's more value on r2 than r1. I think if Overeem had been on his bicycle and avoided exchanges in rd 1 and was then flatlined in r2 of that fight instead, the R1 odds would be way more enticing here. But since Overeem thought being in the pocket was okay early on and paid the price early, bettors are playing the R1 prop as though Ngannou always constantly pushes the action. But you're absolutely right, he doesn't.

Now, that doesn't mean he CAN'T. He's actually decent at stalking guys and slowly cutting the cage off. He's not useless at all when he's moving forward. But he's probably better as a counter-striker (maybe throw out "probably", he IS better as a counter-striker).

I think another factor that potentially backs up your view here is that this is a 5 round fight. Yes, there's huge questions about Ngannou's gas tank. BUT...when you are such a brutal finisher like he is, the concern is always there that your opponent simply tries to avoid all exchanges and potshot you to a decision win. Tough to do at HW yes, but we've seen plenty of 3 round HW fights go the distance that we never thought would. But with this being a 5 rounder, Francis isn't going to be overly concerned about eating a few jabs and losing rd 1 if Stipe decides to stay the hell away from him. That won't tax Ngannou's gas tank, and he'll know he still has 4 rounds to land the one shot he needs to land.

 

[mkess101]

Money coming in on Font. Still trying to figure out how to play that one, hmm...

 

[SBJJ]

Money coming in on Font. Still trying to figure out how to play that one, hmm...

I'll play Almeida as a dog

 

[ill800]

Ok so I played tibau To win a unit.

That’s why they call it gambling

 

[mkess101]

I'll play Almeida as a dog

I would too, and eyeing his dec prop maybe...

Edit: Yeah, hit that dec prop at +359. Almeida seemed to learn his lesson vs Cody. He's okay picking his spots now and scoring points instead of going balls out for a finish from the opening bell. And Font is good enough to not be steamrolled for sure. I think Almeida is the more dynamic striker, and will just outland Font.

 

[lefontes]

Barzola decision is the best bet on this card.

 

[mkess101]

Normally I don't look to play these type of props all that often, but am I crazy to think there's really good value in:

NOT Cormier by sub at -176?

So Oezdemir's only loss is by sub. DC subbed Rumble twice, Hendo, and one other guy way back when. I'm not saying I'd be stunned AT ALL if DC subs Volkan. But with all the ways that fights can end, this line just seems way off. I mean, DC sub is +136?? So take the juice away and the odds say this fight ends with a DC sub about 40% of the time??? REALLY?

Someone tell me why this isn't a very playable line. Implied probability at this price is around 63% I think. I think 75% (maybe higher) is where I cap this.

 

[ill800]

Barzola decision is the best bet on this card.

Not at -113 it isn’t

Bessette is fighting in his hometown. He was the ces champ and he’s finished a lot of guys. He’s tough and battle tested. Barzola doesn’t have the power to finish him and his volume isn’t high either.

If he can take bessette down and control him he should win but bessette has an active guard off his back and has some slick subs

Personally I like prop bets to have a plus next to their number

 

[EzFlyer]

Tibau 2 year usada suspension is a pretty big reason

A lot has changed in mma in 2 years, specifically the iv ban.

He looks like he’s lost muscle mass. Still looked good at weigh ins

I’d like to see if he still looks like a 180lb tank tomorrow after he hydrated

That fight with khabib was 5.5 years ago

Islam young and training with wrestling animals. He’s not going to get tired and He’s a better wrestler than tibau

Sometimes these grappler vs grappler matches tend to turn into striking matches where neither guy is anything special.

If tibau doesn’t have a big weight and strength advantage is he going to be able to wrestle with Islam for 3 rounds to the point where he can outpoint him?

what makes you think makhachev has success if it becomes a striking fight? (which it absolutely will be at times.. if not MOST of the time)

Ok so I played tibau To win a unit.

That’s why they call it gambling

my man!

i think it's gonna end up being a close decision, but think you're on the right side given the price

 

[t6p]

Normally I don't look to play these type of props all that often, but am I crazy to think there's really good value in:

NOT Cormier by sub at -176?

So Oezdemir's only loss is by sub. DC subbed Rumble twice, Hendo, and one other guy way back when. I'm not saying I'd be stunned AT ALL if DC subs Volkan. But with all the ways that fights can end, this line just seems way off. I mean, DC sub is +136?? So take the juice away and the odds say this fight ends with a DC sub about 40% of the time??? REALLY?

Someone tell me why this isn't a very playable line. Implied probability at this price is around 63% I think. I think 75% (maybe higher) is where I cap this.

I totally get your reasoning. I thought the same thing and I played NOT Cormier sub at like -150 against Rumble the second time. Just sayin’.

 

[mkess101]

I totally get your reasoning. I thought the same thing and I played NOT Cormier sub at like -150 against Rumble the second time. Just sayin’.

Yeah so did I (small). And we got burned. But we still have to cap this as its own outcome right? I'm just trying to figure out if I'm crazy to think that this outcome being a DC sub isn't even close to 37% of the time. I'm pretty sure I'm pulling the trigger. It's just off. 25% seems about where I'd cap it. There's value, whether I win or lose.

 

[EzFlyer]

Normally I don't look to play these type of props all that often, but am I crazy to think there's really good value in:

NOT Cormier by sub at -176?

So Oezdemir's only loss is by sub. DC subbed Rumble twice, Hendo, and one other guy way back when. I'm not saying I'd be stunned AT ALL if DC subs Volkan. But with all the ways that fights can end, this line just seems way off. I mean, DC sub is +136?? So take the juice away and the odds say this fight ends with a DC sub about 40% of the time??? REALLY?

Someone tell me why this isn't a very playable line. Implied probability at this price is around 63% I think. I think 75% (maybe higher) is where I cap this.

it's a pretty low line, i agree, but that seems to be the way cormier is trending in his career and he's a smart fighter.. it's the gameplan against volkan for him, it has to be

Yeah so did I (small). And we got burned. But we still have to cap this as its own outcome right? I'm just trying to figure out if I'm crazy to think that this outcome being a DC sub isn't even close to 37% of the time. I'm pretty sure I'm pulling the trigger. It's just off. 25% seems about where I'd cap it. There's value, whether I win or lose.

25% DC sub? that is low for me. very. i cap DC sub somewhere like 35-40% i think here... really do...

 

[t6p]

Yeah so did I (small). And we got burned. But we still have to cap this as its own outcome right? I'm just trying to figure out if I'm crazy to think that this outcome being a DC sub isn't even close to 37% of the time. I'm pretty sure I'm pulling the trigger. It's just off. 25% seems about where I'd cap it. There's value, whether I win or lose.

I get where your coming from, but I do agree with EZ. I think it’s probably the most likely outcome here.

 

[mkess101]

it's a pretty low line, i agree, but that seems to be the way cormier is trending in his career and he's a smart fighter.. it's the gameplan against volkan for him, it has to be



25% DC sub? that is low for me. very. i cap DC sub somewhere like 35-40% i think here... really do...

Part of the reason I disagree is the TYPE of subs DC gets. They are all RNC's. And in order to get those, the other guy has to oblige. Any fighter with the slightest clue can avoid the RNC if they want. Now, often they then get flattened out and pounded out, but that's how a lot of guys choose to go out.

Rumble wanted out of both fights right? Not trying to trash him, but he just decided he was done and didn't even try to stop DC getting the RNC. Hendo too, ableit to a lesser degree. Not sure about DC's old sub.

To me, just way too many different ways this fight can end to cap it anywhere near what the odds suggest for DC winning by sub. Just how I see it.

 

[ill800]

what makes you think makhachev has success if it becomes a striking fight? (which it absolutely will be at times.. if not MOST of the time)



my man!

i think it's gonna end up being a close decision, but think you're on the right side given the price

Yea it is the right side. Islam is unproven. Tibau is a veteran who can neutralize Islam’s wrestling.

I’m putting too much stock in what usada could potentially do to tibau and islam potentially having a break out fight.

If tibau is close to the same guy and he neutralizes the wrestling the fight would be even based on the striking

 

[EzFlyer]

if we lose, we lose. rather go down swinging on a +230 in what i view as a close fight than get too creative and lay juice etc!

 

[mkess101]

Also @t6p and @EzFlyer

I paired my NOT Cormier sub -178 with the o1.5 sub prop at -125.

So yeah, I can get middled if there's no other subs on the card and DC does sub Volkan, but I can always buy out before the DC fight (at a loss obviously) if there haven't been any subs prior to it starting.

Ideally we'll see at least a couple before DC/Volkan. If there's 1 prior to it, I've hedged some of my action on it. I see 3-4 fights prior to DC/Volkan that at least have a decent shot at ending in a sub.

Guess we'll see how it goes. Not invested big or anything, but I'm comfortable with playing it this way I guess.

 

[PuertoRican]

Also @t6p and @EzFlyer

I paired my NOT Cormier sub -178 with the o1.5 sub prop at -125.

So you like Volkan to survive for a bit, right?

He's $7000 on DraftKings. It allows you to do a lot with your team.

I'm still undecided how I'll play the fight.

 

[iGnP]

@mkess101 hey man NOT Volkan SUB might have value too at -9600. Think about it, DC has never been subbed and I dont think I've ever seen Volkan go for a sub.