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UFC 213 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

  1. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    It does seem realistic that many people don't have a defined bankroll. As you say I assume many people just define their unit size as "X".

    Just my opinion but if you don't have a defined bankroll and choose a somewhat arbitrary unit size it would make sense to make that unit size $ 100 as that is what correlates to ML bets anyway.

    I don't really think unit sizing is the real issue here however. The real issue is just being honest about your results. I don't really give a flying fuck if people think I am cool on here cuz I made money. I lost most of my roll a few months ago of 4-5k and its not a big deal. I will reload and keep betting to have fun.

    The problem is when people manipulate their results to look better than they actually are. While normal people do this to some extent touts excel in this regard because they have the extra motivation of needing to look good to continue making money off subs.

    Notice how nobody argues about the results of any other of the regs. Somehow MMAGF is always in the centre of this kaka controversy. Why do his results matter so much....? I dunno maybe there is an ulterior motive that requires him to prove how good he is doing.
     
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    There is no reason to argue with anyone but him cause literally every regular is knowledgeable enough to know how units really work, and Mmagf is the only guy here who's tracking will show 11-20u bets being a normal routine. Seriously, if it seemed like anyone was faking their numbers I'd call them on it if I noticed. Just makes him more of a scumbag he tries charging people for those lies (and like you said, gives him the motive to do so)

    Still can't get over his last post trying to justify his unit sizes. Seems like he really thinks everyone is too stupid to realize how full of shit he is based off that
     
  3. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Yea, I think most recreational gamblers don't define a bankroll as most players are likely using a large % of what is in their account weekly. IMO, if you aren't going to define a bankroll so you really don't know what 1% would be, I'd say a unit bet would be your average bet. In my case, it's $3.84.
     
  4. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    My point is no one else has the motivation to fudge their numbers. If you tell me you lost 2k last week I would just believe you. If you post a screenshot that shows you won 3k well good for you. We are all just peers hanging out and discussing our hobby.

    Nobody questions the numbers in EZ's signature. I just think "wow good for him". The difference is MMAGF comes into the community feigning friendship when really he is here to sell his product. I already explained all this to MMAGF in PMs and clearly he doesn't care (and doesn't deny it either).

    The perfect example is being out at a bar with a bunch of friends. You are all drinking hanging out and having fun. How would you feel in this scenario if someone came up started talking to you for 20 min and then proceeded to try and sell you life insurance or ball point pens....you fill in the blank.

    The terms of service of Sherdog forbid advertising of products and services so he needs to do it in a low key way to stay below the radar.
     
  5. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Let's give an example here. I have a $20,000 bank roll and a fighter is listed as a +170 dog giving him an implied probability of winning 37.04% of the time.

    So doing a real-world experiment that is completely hypothetical I do not believe this LOL

    What say that fighter is Santiago Ponz and he is the +170 dog against Gunnar Nelson when I think he should the -400 favorite — hypothetical — so his odds should be 1 to 4 instead of 17 to 10 as they are.

    Let's say I believe he has an 80% chance of winning.

    With a minimum bet of $1.00 Kelly would say :

    • The odds are in my favor
    • According to the Kelly criterion my optimal bet is about 68.24% of my capital, or $13,647.00
    • On 80% of similar occasions, I would expect to gain $23,199.90
    • With the additional stake risk of $13,647.00 being returned.
    • But on those occasions when I lose, I will lose a stake of $13,647.00.
    • My fortune will grow, on average, by about 38.67% on each bet.
    • Bets have been rounded down to the nearest multiple of $1.00.
    • If I do not bet exactly $13,647.00, I should bet less than $13,647.00.
    • The Kelly criterion is maximally aggressive — it seeks to increase capital at the maximum rate possible. Betting 2.5% of my bankroll would be $500.00 which is what most professional gamblers would bet with some of them halving it.
    • A $500 bet is a 10 unit wager with $50 being 1 unit
    • Alternatively a 5 unit bet with $100 = a unit.

    This is why a bet between 3 to 11 units is not inflated.p

    Apologies if I made any mathematical errors. History was my subject not arithmetic LOL but I think I have it correct.
     
  6. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Sorry bro, I'm not following. I've never made a 100 unit bet LOL the bels are between 3 and 11 units which are between 1% and 3% depending on aggressiveness.
     
  7. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Is there any reason you're not using 1% of your BR as your unit size? If you're consistently winning you'd think you'd want to have as much wagered as possible while still being responsible with it by not going over 5-10u
     
  8. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    • you cant bet 1% yourself and at the same time recommend someone else bets 4%. if 4% really was the better amount to bet you would be doing it yourself. the standard to use is 1% =1u
     
  9. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    LMFAO!

    Man you are trying so hard at this point. Just give it up. You've gambled long enough to know youre being a fucking fraud. You now have multiple others coming in here questioning the way you use and define units. This post is nothing but babble, and the last one where you tried explaining yourself you did all the work for me and exposed yourself by admitting youre defining .25% of your bankroll as 1u. Jesus man.
     
  10. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    i bet 10u and above all the time. but when i bet it i'm betting 10% not 2.5%
     
  11. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    EZ. Close this god damn thread already.

    I'm literally the worst when it comes to bankroll or unit size. So much of what I've done over the years is by gut or feel. This includes all avenues of income/Investment. I literally have 60/70% of my net worth in 1 Stock.
     
  12. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    i lost 48 mmagf units on stansbury last week
     
  13. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Uh oh look who's triggered with multiple paragraphs. LOL

    Dude, where are you getting this that my site I'm defining .25% of my bankroll as 1 unit?

    It's quite simple. I bet between 3 to 11 units most often. Sometimes I buy two units. Rarely do I use 11 units. Only when I'm very confident. Would it would be different if I wrote it as $550 because it is the same thing.

    But dude, just leave me the fuck alone. Are you the one only but you have to white knight people who buy plays like you are the protector of the realm, the one true arbiter of truth LOL You don't know me in real life. You have no idea what kind of person I am. And I am selling my MMA plays on the weekend for $15 with a money back guarantee! ..... How in the world are you going to call that scumbag? Especially when they are winning and i'm not advertising on here. And if I do lose, you get your money back. What is the problem with what I'm doing. I don't know anyone else giving money back if they lose.

    But I'm sick of bickering back and forth. You can like it or not. I have better things to do .....

    ....like sell my plays.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Good thing the mood in the forum got better once we got rid of all that #elite bullshit.
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Na man you need to understand just cause you have this system where you go to vegas and just drop stacks on bets with no regard to formulative strategy doesn't mean lets close the thread lol

    I'm sure i'm not the only one who can say this, but the way units are actually defined and used has been a big part of consistent success. There are guys like Goodfella who have taken advantage of noobs for profit by redefining the system to what suits them best for their agenda. Until you lose 70% of your roll in a month following MMAGF....

    but anyways, just let it play out man. Obviously others are starting to see the bullshit, and if we can save just a few noobs from this lying salesman's continuing efforts to market on Sherdog forums, thats not such a bad thing.
     
  16. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Yea, I rarely follow the 1% rule and most often go with 3%

    Make sense?
     
  17. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    "Dude, where are you getting this that my site I'm defining .25% of my bankroll as 1 unit?" Um, i'm getting that from you. $20k bankroll. $50 = 1u. So .25% of your roll = 1u. lmfaooooo
     
  18. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    It sounds like you are defining your unit size as .25% based on what you said your bankroll was earlier. Therefore, most of your plays will be multiple units. If your followers are defining units as 1%, they are going in with WAY more risk relative to yours.
     
  19. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Kelly allows aggressive 2.5 to 3% bet of BR

    Even using 2% of 20k is an $400 play i.e. a 8u play
     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Sigh.

    A unit is 1% of your bankroll. Not .25% of your bankroll. You know this, stop playing stupid. Youve now had 4 other posters besides myself, who you have ignored thus far, call you out on the same thing.
     

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