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UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 19, 2017.

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  1. OneWarrior1 Brown Belt

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    Some people think Ferg is a grappling wizard because he submitted Tibau who gave Khabib problems, but if you watch the fight Ferg rocked Tibau. And Tibau was a lot later into his career.
     
  2. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Agree to an extent. Are the new rules in place in Vegas?

    I'm hoping Khabib tires and his shots get slower and slower.
     
  3. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Im probably going with Woodley just because of this pic. Thats shame Thompson isnt at serra-longo. He needs high level wrestling. what these bums bring?
     
  4. trucido Blue Belt

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    I was on Woodley originally but this makes me more confident. If he uses his wrestling more often he will absolutely dominate, Thompson has zero answers on the ground
     
  5. rille31 Brown Belt

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    lol at people fading thompson after some pic taken after a gym session

    maybe he was hitting pads with his boxing coach or some boxing sparring with the big guy to the right
    he definately didnt train with the chicks or the midget
     
  6. wack3d Silver Belt

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    its still information.. i mean if you saw him doing his camp with top coaches and killer training partners that puches him to improve at Jacksons or AKA ect instead of training with his dad :) would you not have more confidence in Thompson? i know i would
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2017
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Well, a few things about that. First, I would say under the old scoring for sure you'd be correct. But now...top position really isn't looked at as being all that important by the judges. If Khabib controls Ferg for a round on the mat but Ferg lands a few short elbows and opens up a cut on Khabib, it's the farthest thing from a certainty that Khabib gets that round under the new scoring.

    And I honestly don't think it's a foregone conclusion Khabib just repeatedly secures top position. I mean, is it pretty likely he hits a TD or two early? Yeah, I suppose it is. He's obviously a dominant grappler. But he's never faced anyone who has the threat of locking up a choke from the front headlock position like Ferg (to be fair, I'm not sure there is anyone else that can do it like Ferg). Just the threat of that alone matters.

    I'd rather bet the guy at +170 with a whole bunch of different paths to victory than the guy who's -200 who basically has one path to victory (albeit a very clear one that he's obviously extremely good at). And I think the skill and ability difference standing is more in Ferg's favor than the grappling difference is in Khabib's favor.
     
  8. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    How can you say he didnt train at Serra Longo from the one pic though?
     
  9. wack3d Silver Belt

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    look at his instagram there is only pics of him training with dad and these guys over the last 5 weeks
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I just rewatched both fights. Ferg didn't "rock" Tibau, though he was getting the better of him standing. Tibau shot on Ferg who threatened with his snapdown front headlock that he uses to transition to his D'arce. Tibau shrunk up to defend that, and Ferg spun to take his back. It was actually some terrific grappling.

    Ferg might not be a grappling "wizard", I'll agree with that. He's not Maia or Jacare obviously. But for MMA he has a unique build and skill set that makes him a damn good one.
     
  11. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    Not definitve proof he's NOT doing TDD training aswell though, its probably the most gruelling aspect (wrestling as a whole) and wouldnt be surprised he's drilled that in the weeks after his first fight.

    Im 100% sure he's training at Sierra Longo though, he'd be a fool otherwise.
     
  12. wack3d Silver Belt

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    ya im sure he is doing some wrestling but he is not training at Longo when all these pics show him training in South Carolina
     
  13. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    And Chris Weidman (his post from january 6th)
     
  14. wack3d Silver Belt

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    did a little more digging and i can see Thompson has been doing some work with Karl Reed hwo was a NCAA DIV2 wrestler and is now a college wrestling coach he has also been doing some work with Koscheck so thats positive too see at least
     
  15. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    Hey guys. I have been lurking for a while here but now I am jumping in. I just rewatched Khabib vs Michael Johnson and one thing that stuck out to me was the pace that Khabib kept. He certainly does not fight like someone who is worried about getting tired. I know hes only been in 3 rounders in the UFC, but based on his last fight I would not feel comfortable banking on him to slow down.

    I see already a lot of people are on Tony. Is that just because you guys think the line is off? If this fight were a pickem would most of you still be firing 4-5 units on Tony? Personally I favor Khabib by quite a bit. I think Ferguson's crazy style will increases the chances that he finds himself in bad positions. Furthermore, until I see someone do anything on the ground vs Khabib except survive I just can't expect it.

    Looking forward to being a part of the discussion!
     
  16. wack3d Silver Belt

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    you cant compare Johnson to Ferg.. Johnson has zero ground game so Khabib was easily dominating the fight while Ferg will make him work hard even if he is on the bottom

    edit; welcome btw :D
     
  17. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    Thanks!

    I agree with you that Ferg should have more to offer on the ground than Michael Johnson. Will he have more to offer on the ground than RDA? It looked like RDA made Khabib work hard for take downs and to maintain control, but Khabib was able to do it without slowing down. In fact, in the RDA fight, the 3rd round was his best round imo.
     
  18. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    Only two things MJ/Khabib taught us was, MJ still has no ground game so Khabib ate him up and the second thing is Khabib has no defence other than the parry and moving the head and chin right back. Conor would decimate that Khabib. Its actually frightening to see no one actually punish that outside of MJ in the most deep division of the UFC. Khabib also has trouble fighting southpaws standing, you could tell from the RDA fight when they were standing aswell as the MJ fight. Ferg mixes his stances up, which imo will further confuse Khabib. Feg surprisingly isnt that adept at controlling distance with his frame and will usually eat a punch to take one. One thing Ive noticed though is that Khabib's standup isnt even mediocre, its amateurish. The threat of the takedown increases his chances of landing uppercuts etc but he leaps in with no defence and the only defensive tactics he knows are parries and movig the head straight back.

    How on earth does he have 70% striking defence? Then you see he actually hasnt faced anyone whose his stylistic nightmare or even decent outside of roided Tibau (GOAT LW gatekeeper) and RDA.

    I know who to play in Conor vs Khabib matchup, but Khabib vs Ferg is a toss up and I slightly favor Ferg. At +175 or better, Imma play him.

    Aldo shoulve taken this fight with Khabib, even with the size disadvantage, Khabib would look like a fish outta water.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2017
  19. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm interested to see if Khabib's line gets down closer to even.
     
  20. quincy k Brown Belt

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    why not wait to bet ferg after khabib hits a td or two early?
     
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