UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas (part 2)

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so long he can maul ferguson against the fence he'll do just fine most likely, i really don't think ferguson is going to have much success if he winds up playing clinch game with khabib, it's really only in open space khabib has to mind his p's and q's. i also think you and multiple others are disregarding how freakishly strong khabib is in those positions, and how developed his sense for posture on the
ground is. you need space to work '10th planet' khabib is not a fighter that gives you space, he suffucates people until they can't take it anymore and essentially give up.

I don't disagree with a lot of this. But as I just posted, cardio plays a big role in why guys "give up". Khabib suffocates them and eventually they become too tired to put up solid defense and make Khabib work anymore. It was obvious with MJ (along with the fact that MJ does not seem to know what he's doing at all once on his back). If there's a guy in MMA who's gas tank I trust to hold up and continue to make Khabib work hard and potentially tire HIM out, it's Ferg.

I do agree Ferg is gonna need to tweak his 10th planet game a little assuming he's on his back. Mixing things up between high guard, rubber guard, traditional guard. Tying Khabib up at times, throwing short elbows with good timing (meaning only opening up when Khabib isn't threatening to advance position, etc.) If Ferg is on his back I believe it will be a much better chess match than some Khabib supporters think. Khabib hasn't finished (or even come close or even done any damage to) anyone with any semblance of a guard game at all in the UFC. And while Ferg's aggressive style is a mild concern (does he get passed because he's too aggressive trying to create scrambles, etc.) I really do think he'll hold his own. I don't think he can spend 20 minutes on his back and win, but I think he'll be okay if it's for stretches.
 
i remember cory spinks doing some break dancing shit before his rematch with zab and then proceeded to get ktfo



its good that tonys confident but overly-confident might not be a good idea agaisnt an elite fighter like khabib


Lol definitely the first ever Cory Spinks reference in these threads since I've been around. I love it.

If the juice drops on Khabib a bit more I'll probably make a play on him. His stand up scares me against a guy with the power, chin, and boxing of Tony, but I think his wrassling and overall grappling will get him a win here. Still don't want to play him atm, if I can get -160 I'll probably hit it for a unit.
 
Yes, obviously Tony is better than MJ on the ground. But I think it says something that this thread historically dismisses khabibs skills, I think before the MJ fight the logic was "he looked bad vs horcher for the first minute". Maybe some people just can't see what makes khabib so good because they can't understand it? Not pointing fingers, it's interesting how polarizing people's opinions of his fights are.

About MJ: It's just weird imho, to focus on one exchange in the MJ v khabib fight, instead of khabib's dominance. And then on the other hand to not mention how MJ beat Ferg, just feels like selective logic to me.

You know a guy is good when he gets hit one time in a fight that he completely dominated and that is what people have to point at for him being beatable.
 


Ferg looking amazing.

This is the hipster movement era, RIP Khabib
 

barely 2,5 years ago ferguson was given all he could handle on the ground by danny 'last call' fucking castillo, sorry, but i just don't see it. you also need posture in order to throw elbows from the bottom with any type of success, and if you look at how khabib handles guard, he's never really in the position to where he could get hurt by strikes from bottom, he's also constantly driving through his opponents hips, making them work.
 
Yes, obviously Tony is better than MJ on the ground. But I think it says something that this thread historically dismisses khabibs skills, I think before the MJ fight the logic was "he looked bad vs horcher for the first minute". Maybe some people just can't see what makes khabib so good because they can't understand it? Not pointing fingers, it's interesting how polarizing people's opinions of his fights are.

About MJ: It's just weird imho, to focus on one exchange in the MJ v khabib fight, instead of khabib's dominance. And then on the other hand to not mention how MJ beat Ferg, just feels like selective logic to me.

Khabib is terrific at what he does. That said, his 24-0 record is misleading imo. Right up until he entered the UFC (16 fights into his career) he was fighting regional Russian fighters with records like 1-1, 4-3, and 0-0(!)---and the guy making his debut fought Khabib when Khabib was 14-0!! That fight has no chance of even being sanctioned in the U.S.

In the UFC, he probably should have lost to Tibau. Lame fight, Tibau a roider, etc. But Khabib went 0 for 13 on takedown attempts in that fight. I realize too that Ferg had his similar performance against Castillo. But if you look at Khabib, (as I keep mentioning), you can't find one example of him ever doing damage or coming close to finishing anyone with a decent guard game. He wins, his top control and ability to repeatedly take guys down is great, but he's not smashing or subbing decent guard players.

I think everyone knows what Khabib did to MJ after the initial minutes when it looked like Khabib was in trouble. Impressive win over a good fighter. A good fighter who looks like a turtle that got tipped on it's shell when he's on his back, but a good fighter none the less. But my point was that had MJ swarmed and finished like he MAYBE could have in rd 1 (far from a certainty, no question) then the entire Khabib mystique is gone and nobody cares how good a top position grappler he is.

MJ beat Ferg, but kinda hard to gauge the relevance when Tony fought most of the fight with a broken arm. I mean, it's still a win for MJ and that's great for him, but it sure looked like Ferg was fighting with half his bag of tools.
 


lol @ simpleton Kebob's generic, boring workout

#HipsterMovementEra
 
barely 2,5 years ago ferguson was given all he could handle on the ground by danny 'last call' fucking castillo, sorry, but i just don't see it. you also need posture in order to throw elbows from the bottom with any type of success, and if you look at how khabib handles guard, he's never really in the position to where he could get hurt by strikes from bottom, he's also constantly driving through his opponents hips, making them work.

Yeah the Castillo fight wasn't Ferg's bright spot, but he's had how many fights since then and 2.5 years more training. I'd argue he's significantly better even now than he was then. I guess we'll find out. Maybe Khabib smothers him early and shuts him down. I wonder if he has the gas tank to do it for 25 minutes, even if he has early success? Or maybe Khabib leaves his neck exposed when he level changes like he did multiple times vs RDA and Ferg uses those tentacles to get his front headlock-snapdown and puts Khabib in jeopardy.
 

considering tony's only real submission threat is his d'arce, i'd be very surprised if khabib's aka gameplan consists of him shooting straight up on ferguson, more likely you see clinch singles and the judoka in him come out, than any blast doubles or such. personally i think khabib's calm demeanor get's him a decision here against ferguson.
 
I really like the number on Mr Woodley now, I wanna play him but there's no guarantee he goes out there and fights for my money. Putting his back to the cage is a bad habit IMO. The Rory McDonald fight was embarrassing,

Round 1 Tyron puts his back to the cage and gets soundly out boxed
Round 2 No adjustment, same thing happens, no offense, low output
Round 3 Tyron is down two rounds and needs a finish, instead of trying to get a finish he puts his back to the cage, does nothing and loses the fight

Against Wonderboy he kind of does the same thing but not as bad. He's more active and he did try to blitz a few times. Besides the TD in the 1st and the barrage in the 4th, Tyron did a whole lot of nothing. In the 5th round Tyron did nothing and seemed content with losing the round, his output was low and there was no urgency. Despite landing more strikes than Wonderboy in that fight, Woodley looked a lot less active on the feet and didn't show much aggression for 90% of the fight.

Will he go for TD's this fight? I hope so but he also says in interviews that he has better hands than Wonderboy. Implementing a heavy wrestling based gameplan takes a lot of energy and I think that's why Woodley doesn't do it, it's same reason he has a low output, he's scared of getting tired. It's so weird that he only attempted one TD in their first fight and then never went back to it despite having great success. Really hard to trust Woodley, I bet he puts his back to the cage in the first minute of this fight, it's just what he does.
 
Ferg has a high level Darce, that is very dangerous, if he hurts khabib or khabib gasses, I think he can finish him with it.

But just stick to that. Don't try to tell me that khabib has never done anything to anyone with a guard game, it makes me think you can't understand what you are seeing. Know the strengths of your fighter without losing your objectivity About the likelihood of other outcomes. Khabib is a guard destroyer, look at plekz comment if you need to understand technically why. I'd like you to respond with something that technically describes how ferg will deal with khabibs clinch and posture control from guard.
 
Ferg has a high level Darce, that is very dangerous, if he hurts khabib or khabib gasses, I think he can finish him with it.

But just stick to that. Don't try to tell me that khabib has never done anything to anyone with a guard game, it makes me think you can't understand what you are seeing. Know the strengths of your fighter without losing your objectivity About the likelihood of other outcomes. Khabib is a guard destroyer, look at plekz comment if you need to understand technically why. I'd like you to respond with something that technically describes how ferg will deal with khabibs clinch and posture control from guard.
Literally like 50 pages of this but onwards we go.
 
I honestly think a fighters most recent fights hold more clout than their old ones especially in this ever changing sport. Going into the Cerrone fight, Masvidal was a fighter who always gave a tough fight and mostly lost split decisions to middling fighters but there was a change in mentality after the SD loss to Larkin, he asked judges why they gave him rounds and why they didnt. He then altered his style to be more aggressive and judge friendly and had amazing performances against Pearson, and Ellenberger. This was a dude full of confidence and he looked to gammble a lot of money on himself against Cowboy. He called it by saying he was gonna finish Cowboy. I was betting on his confidence and his improved ability on that fight and he pulled it off. Now Ferg has that mentality and improvement Ive seen since that mediocre fight to Castillo, he's improved that jab to aid in his forward pressure, and moves his head off the centre line sometimes, something he never used to.


But then there are static fighters who cant change with the game, those get ate up. Ferg isnt one of those.
 
considering tony's only real submission threat is his d'arce, i'd be very surprised if khabib's aka gameplan consists of him shooting straight up on ferguson, more likely you see clinch singles and the judoka in him come out, than any blast doubles or such. personally i think khabib's calm demeanor get's him a decision here against ferguson.

It's his best shot at a sub for sure. But it's a hell of a weapon. That 76"+ reach and the fact he's perfected that front headlock snapdown to chain into his D'arce means he doesn't need a lot of time or room to lock it up. I tend to agree it's unlikely he gets it early in the fight. Khabib probably will be conscious of it. But as the fight goes on and cardio potentially becomes a factor, even guys with great skills and "calm demeanors" get a little sloppy. And it only takes one instance of Khabib leaving his neck exposed for him to get stuck in a spot he cant' get out of.

But Khabib dec would not surprise me really. The only outcome I'd be truly surprised by is if Khabib managed to finish Ferg.
 
I really like the number on Mr Woodley now, I wanna play him but there's no guarantee he goes out there and fights for my money. Putting his back to the cage is a bad habit IMO. The Rory McDonald fight was embarrassing,

Round 1 Tyron puts his back to the cage and gets soundly out boxed
Round 2 No adjustment, same thing happens, no offense, low output
Round 3 Tyron is down two rounds and needs a finish, instead of trying to get a finish he puts his back to the cage, does nothing and loses the fight

Against Wonderboy he kind of does the same thing but not as bad. He's more active and he did try to blitz a few times. Besides the TD in the 1st and the barrage in the 4th, Tyron did a whole lot of nothing. In the 5th round Tyron did nothing and seemed content with losing the round, his output was low and there was no urgency. Despite landing more strikes than Wonderboy in that fight, Woodley looked a lot less active on the feet and didn't show much aggression for 90% of the fight.

Will he go for TD's this fight? I hope so but he also says in interviews that he has better hands than Wonderboy. Implementing a heavy wrestling based gameplan takes a lot of energy and I think that's why Woodley doesn't do it, it's same reason he has a low output, he's scared of getting tired. It's so weird that he only attempted one TD in their first fight and then never went back to it despite having great success. Really hard to trust Woodley, I bet he puts his back to the cage in the first minute of this fight, it's just what he does.

It seems like you do not like the number on Woodley...
 
Heres something for a change

How about Godbeer vs Spitz ? Is there any reason to not bet Godbeer itd here ? Spitz is 5 fights in on the regional circuit with a recent decision win over Cabbage fucking Correira
 
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