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Gotta agree even tho i know you love fading conor but think you are bang on here
UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas
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This has the potential to be one of the best live bet fights ever if conor has a dominant r1 and diaz is still there
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that's really not true, sure iv'e been hyper critical of him in the past. but that's more so based on his shit personality then it is his skills. i picked him against mendes (and said mendes likely get's stopped on the feet in the first three rounds) i also had him early against poirier.
it's really only aldo iv'e heavily doubted him previously. and i really honestly did not think, aldo was gonna go in there and throw caution to the wind completly and fight like a moron.
with how diaz fights, in that he jabs it out until he finds his distance, and then he just gets into his rythm and starts gradually upping the pace. i just see bad things happening for conor if it goes past the 10 minute mark, unless conor has caused massive damage to that point.
conor is a fighter that needs and demands respect, that's something he'll never get from nate in the cage. hell nate was getting beaten everywhere by benson, and diaz was still talking shit and giving him the finger. even when josh thomson was hellblitzing diaz and beating the shit out of him, diaz gave him no sign of respect or acknowledgement what so ever.
it's really only aldo iv'e heavily doubted him previously. and i really honestly did not think, aldo was gonna go in there and throw caution to the wind completly and fight like a moron.
with how diaz fights, in that he jabs it out until he finds his distance, and then he just gets into his rythm and starts gradually upping the pace. i just see bad things happening for conor if it goes past the 10 minute mark, unless conor has caused massive damage to that point.
conor is a fighter that needs and demands respect, that's something he'll never get from nate in the cage. hell nate was getting beaten everywhere by benson, and diaz was still talking shit and giving him the finger. even when josh thomson was hellblitzing diaz and beating the shit out of him, diaz gave him no sign of respect or acknowledgement what so ever.
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When a fighter is the taller/bigger fighter, has the reach advantage, has superior cardio for a 5 rounder and possesses a more diverse skill set, would this not be considered the very definition of value? To expand even further, how does a fighter with all of these advantages including a previous win (might I add) come in as an underdog? It's certainly a perplexing question, which, rests upon the shoulders of a seasoned capper to do the appropriate deep capping analysis to understand whats truly going on. One cannot rule out the 3 letter F word because I've been in this game long enough to realize when money is at stake "the powers that be" want prime grade A steak and that ain't cheap. Now don't take this as a Barry endorsement for Nate Diaz to win over Conor because I've yet to to take the time to go in-depth i.e watching tape analyzing variables and weighing every last minute detail. What I'm trying to convey here for the unenlightened is the need to always be asking questions the "what ifs". Let's be honest, professional full time capping isn't for the faint of heart. There's a reason why most bettors want to take the easy route by tailing successful cappers or paying for capping services. Its hard and most aren't "tough enough" to withstand the highs & lows of it.
Due to the magnitude of UFC 202 main event I will be donating a full fight card with Barry's personal picks (3-5 picks) even though I haven't reach the required Likes milestone for unlocking freeplays. It's my way of giving back and it doesn't hurt to do these one offs once in a blue moon. The value I provide is second to none, so rest assured, when I post these picks make absolutely sure to tail them because it's essentially free $$$ and a bankroll builder.
- Barry
Due to the magnitude of UFC 202 main event I will be donating a full fight card with Barry's personal picks (3-5 picks) even though I haven't reach the required Likes milestone for unlocking freeplays. It's my way of giving back and it doesn't hurt to do these one offs once in a blue moon. The value I provide is second to none, so rest assured, when I post these picks make absolutely sure to tail them because it's essentially free $$$ and a bankroll builder.
- Barry
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Oh so you liked Conor the first time at -400 and recommended him as "lock" to use as parlay fodder. But now you realized that Nate " is the taller/bigger fighter, has the reach advantage, has superior cardio for a 5 rounder and possesses a more diverse skill set" huh?
Well gee Barry, I'd think such an amazing pro as yourself would have at least seen SOME of that going into their first fight? Instead you crushed anyone's BR that listened to your fraudulent ass.
LOL Barry you are the most epic troll ever. I really hope no newbs ever actually take you seriously.
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Nate fans; throw money at your boy!! My dream is that Conor ends up being a dog.
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i think most of us will be on Nate.. i am just waiting to strike at the right time
but i still dont think Conor will be a dog at any point since most of the public will bet him..
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Anyone on Cerrone?
Thinking about
Rumble vs Glover and Magny vs Larkin some doubts
Indeed. Huge bet on cowboy here. I'm so impressed by his last two fights.
You have to always worry about the body shots and slow start issues for him, but I think he puts a beatdown on story.
I only see him losing if story is able to wall him and continually dig body shots. If story is able to take him down, a sub is a real possibility.
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Dunno if Glover has ever taken a back step, and AJ will be more than happy to return aggression. Don't like the decision lines on this one.
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yeah i also really like cerrone here but the way rick story is able to wall grind technically superior fighters is a serious concern. plus story will be a good 20 pounds heavier come fight night.
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3 round fight
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3 round fight
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Fading Conor hasn't been that successful I'm sure. I've bet against him twice and lost. If you faded his whole UFC career you'd be down quite a bit.
I'm waiting for the last second before placing a bet on Nate as I think his odds get better.
I'm not terribly confident though.
Yeah, I'm liking Cowboy in this spot too. I am a little bit concerned that with a slight size advantage Story might be able to neutralize Cerrone's offence much like he did to Tarec, but Cowboy seems to be well suited for the welterweight division and I think he moves a little closer (inside?) the top 10. So many fun, fresh matchups for him in this division. Story is an excellent test for him and probably a good indicator of whether or not he should set up shop at 170 lbs permanently.
I have absolutely no guess as to how this line will move. I'm waiting until fight day too though to decide if I'm going to play his money line or not though.
I definitely like Rumble's decision line. I'd probably cap it closer to +300 or so. Glover is durable as hell and he's one of the more well rounded guys AJ has faced. Of course Rumble will let loose early on a few times, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him come in with a conservative gameplan with the goal of pacing himself and not overexposing and ending up underneath Glover. This is Rumble's chance to get back to title contention so he very well might employ a more cautious approach. Not saying that a decision is the most likely outcome here, but at > +500, it seems like really good value to me.
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