I'm not suggesting he do it... I think Conor will use a lot more kicks to get the decision.
UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas
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Ok.. Im going into this Conor-Nate discussion (since my shitty bookies site has not released props for tomorrow).
Lets see the main arguments Im seeing here:
1) Conor can use legkicks to win points and edge rounds: I disagree. While Nate showed to be suceptible to legkicks from a southpaw in RDA, he adjusted much better against another southpaw in Michael Johnson, who clearly went into that fight to kick Nate lead leg out.
Nate checked a few and anyone who knows how much being leg-checked hurt (believe you me) realize that it was the reason MJ did not throw much in rounds 2 and 3. That makes me disagree with people that blamed MJ fight IQ as the main reason he lost that fight ("he got caught into Nate game" / "he should have sticked to the legkicks").
Can Conor land a few legkicks? Yes, but he is not a Thai boxer and I doubt it hurts nate.
Plus legkicks against an opponent with longer reach (specially if they are not hard enough to make him lose balance) make you really suceptible to being countered.
2) Conor can pick his shots and outwork Diaz: Emmm, no. You want to outwork a Diaz? Then you need to stay in his face and pressure him, threating him with TDs, etc. Other way you are not going to win that kind of fight. Specially if you have shorter reach.
Nate showed time and time again that his managment of distance is awesome against shorter guys. He is excellent at staying just 1 or 2 inch away from shots while landing his own. And when he gets punched he is good at rolling with them.
Conor showed he does not have the granite chin most of us thought he had so he cant hang around a volume striker with amazing cardio who is just going to throw punches non stop for 25 minutes. That kind of dogfight catches you at some point. Nate has good killer instinct, if Conor is hurt he is going to finish him.
3) Conor could not finish Diaz so Conor cant finish Diaz: That is a bold statement. Conor has the power, the timing and the speed to finish anyone. The fact that he did not finished Diaz in the first fight does not mean he cant do it in august 20th.
Nate is though as nails but nobody is impossible to KO. He is fighting a KO machine who while being a little smaller (lets not pretend that there are a huge overall size difference) so you cant rule that out.
4) Conor cardio sucks: While it sucked in his first fight (I honestly bought the "you saw me on salad, now watch me on steaks") and he basically checked out after 7/8 minutes I think he realizes that he needs to work on that and his cardio will be on point. Better than Nate? Shit no, but I dont expect him to gas out like a fat heavyweight again.
At these odds I like:
Nate ML +105 (I reckon it gotten better in another bookies)
Edge: Conor round 2 + 550
Nate Round 3 (+800) and round 4 (+1400) are good odds.
PS: Conor round 1 at +300 seems a little juicy and Nate is really though. Specially if he comes a little more cautious.
Lets see the main arguments Im seeing here:
1) Conor can use legkicks to win points and edge rounds: I disagree. While Nate showed to be suceptible to legkicks from a southpaw in RDA, he adjusted much better against another southpaw in Michael Johnson, who clearly went into that fight to kick Nate lead leg out.
Nate checked a few and anyone who knows how much being leg-checked hurt (believe you me) realize that it was the reason MJ did not throw much in rounds 2 and 3. That makes me disagree with people that blamed MJ fight IQ as the main reason he lost that fight ("he got caught into Nate game" / "he should have sticked to the legkicks").
Can Conor land a few legkicks? Yes, but he is not a Thai boxer and I doubt it hurts nate.
Plus legkicks against an opponent with longer reach (specially if they are not hard enough to make him lose balance) make you really suceptible to being countered.
2) Conor can pick his shots and outwork Diaz: Emmm, no. You want to outwork a Diaz? Then you need to stay in his face and pressure him, threating him with TDs, etc. Other way you are not going to win that kind of fight. Specially if you have shorter reach.
Nate showed time and time again that his managment of distance is awesome against shorter guys. He is excellent at staying just 1 or 2 inch away from shots while landing his own. And when he gets punched he is good at rolling with them.
Conor showed he does not have the granite chin most of us thought he had so he cant hang around a volume striker with amazing cardio who is just going to throw punches non stop for 25 minutes. That kind of dogfight catches you at some point. Nate has good killer instinct, if Conor is hurt he is going to finish him.
3) Conor could not finish Diaz so Conor cant finish Diaz: That is a bold statement. Conor has the power, the timing and the speed to finish anyone. The fact that he did not finished Diaz in the first fight does not mean he cant do it in august 20th.
Nate is though as nails but nobody is impossible to KO. He is fighting a KO machine who while being a little smaller (lets not pretend that there are a huge overall size difference) so you cant rule that out.
4) Conor cardio sucks: While it sucked in his first fight (I honestly bought the "you saw me on salad, now watch me on steaks") and he basically checked out after 7/8 minutes I think he realizes that he needs to work on that and his cardio will be on point. Better than Nate? Shit no, but I dont expect him to gas out like a fat heavyweight again.
At these odds I like:
Nate ML +105 (I reckon it gotten better in another bookies)
Edge: Conor round 2 + 550
Nate Round 3 (+800) and round 4 (+1400) are good odds.
PS: Conor round 1 at +300 seems a little juicy and Nate is really though. Specially if he comes a little more cautious.
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This is how I look at the Diaz/Conor fight. I don't see how anything changes from the first fight for numerous reasons. When there is an instant rematch there really is no time to develop better skills, its more of a game plan and conditioning thing. I don't see Conor being able to deal with Nates reach and pace. He cant go anywhere near the ground or its game over. Outside of a punchers chance against a very durable Diaz, I just cant see how Conor wins this. If its true or not Diaz said he laid back on round 1 so he didnt gas in the first fight, that is very concerning if your for Conor as nate pushes a high pace. I see Conor getting worn down by the high volume and not getting inside enough to do anything to Diaz. Why he wants to fight at 170 is beyond me, he is a very skilled fighter but weight matters and in this case length is a major factor. I think this is one of those fights where you dont need to watch tape, you dont have to think too hard into it, it is what it is. Not saying that its a lock because anyone who said they studied tape on bisping/rockhold and determined from that, that bisping would ko Luke in the first is delusional. It happened and that is what makes mma great and gambling...well gambling. But Someone convince me where i am wrong and that this fight has any other way to go then how it went last time.
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Not sure if you saw the exchange between mkess and myself, but i'd agree round kicks to the leg won't work well. For the reasons you stated, plus the possibility its not a comfortable attack for Conor evidenced by his lack of use. BUT, the low line sidekick is a weapon to look out for. It was one of Conor's best landed strikes in the first encounter, and hes shown a propensity to use them in the past, most noticeably vs Holloway. At the very least I expect him to look for opportunities to land this more.
Your second point is almost impossible to argue imo. Call me Joseph Zahabi, if i'm Conor's coach I'd be making him watch a guy like Eddie Wineland to emulate. Its feasible he has the speed to continuously move his feet at lateral angles, stay far away, and either look to counter or dart in with a combo when he sees an opportunity. But thats in theory, and imo he definitely doesn't have enough time to make style adjustments to win this over a 25 min fight
Your third point though....I think its safe to say there is a huge size differential. Mainly cause Conor stupidly wanted this at 170. Nate looks huge in pics, and is reportedly around 200 lbs. Also, not saying Conor can't finish, but reflective of odds I can't state enough how much I LOVE Not Conor itd. I think doctor stoppage is much more likely than a KO. I'd cap Not Conor itd around -350 easy. Smaller man, lesser striking vs notoriously (pun not intended) one of the toughest dude in MMA history.
I think most of us expect Conor to be better prepared for the pace. Know a few are on the over, i'm sure that factored into the decision.
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btw, for anyone who loves the shit talking as much as me, there is a conference call in 80 minutes
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Im gonna tail you on that NOT Conor ITD line. Seems like the best play to me. I'm also on Diaz ML from earlier (2.5u).
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I just want to address point 3. The thing is I don't think anyone is saying Conor CAN'T finish Nate, just that based on the first fight it's pretty unlikely. Because you're line "Conor could not finish Diaz so Conor can't finish Diaz" leaves out an important point: Conor LANDED his power shots on Nate. CLEAN. A LOT. If Nate had mostly avoided those bombs I think your point has more validity. But the fact that Nate ate those shots and wasn't fazed tells a pretty significant story. Again, doesn't mean that if Conor lands that perfectly placed, perfectly timed shot he can't hurt Nate. What it means is that punches that have made other guys fall over and turtle up made Nate smile and wave Conor ahead.
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I think I'm going to bet on Diaz in the distance, Rumble via KO, and Story via decision.
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Dont forget what Nate said after the fight, that he wanted to take his time because he was not in top shape. Full camp Nate wont take his time at 202, more pressure from the first bell. This fight wont go to distance...
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Nah I agree, most likely doesn't go all 5. But I think Conor dials down his aggression a bit in an attempt to not tire as quickly. May see Nate moving forward more early and Conor looking to slow him down with the push kick or side kick to Nate's front leg. Then he'll just look to counter and catch Nate coming in. Problem is that Nate very rarely overcommits to his strikes. I think (and you probably do too) that Nate will look to pressure, but do it by keeping his jab in Conor's face.
I think the Nate rd 3-4-5 props look really nice. I do think he stops Conor again, but later. I like o2.5, not Conor itd (good call by Joe B) and I'm also big on Nate's ML. This fight I think is gonna have a lot of action by almost everyone who posts here LOL. With a few exceptions, looks like it's gonna be most of us vs the Irish betting crowd!
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I don't buy that.. I think conor is just too good, too fast when at his freshest
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Gt???
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I think McGregors best chance of taking the win is by utilizing leg kicks. He needs to come in with a prolific heavy leg kick early gameplan to slow down Diaz and have him unbalanced. Then slowly he can start adding heavy leather and possibly get a TKO or something. On the other hand though, McGregor has always had one mode of fighting and doing a 180 here and trying to pace himself might just mess with him. Usually when fighters try to fight differently it takes them a few fights to get to that new groove if they ever do. If McGregor fights in a more passive way because of the fear of gassing he will just be letting Diaz get comfortable and in his groove which is a bad idea. I think the fear of gassing will mess with McGregor's mind making him fight in a different uncomfortable way causing him the fight. Diaz will come in more confident than ever to this fight.
iaz,Cerrone,Hyun Gyu Lim,Garbandt
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people on the ''hey conor let's legkick to victory'' train, please explain how he's gonna be able to do that with the type of stance he has? he has a wide legged stance that lends itself badly to launching legkicks, he can use them to keep distance but that's about it. he'd have to switch stances constantly to be able to get his hips to be able to turn with the kick, otherwise he'll be kicking with his leg only.
put simply? i do not see it. nor do i see a conor being able to last under the type of pressure and tempo that nate sets.
we saw last time that nate is stronger in the clinch, he's taller & longer, he's years ahead on the ground and he pushes a pace that he just ups and ups and ups and ups. soon as he found his rythm last time it was over for conor, conor either throws everything & the kitchen sink again and gets diaz out in the first 10. or he drowns.
conor was sucking wind badly at the end of 2 rounds with chad mendes, he essentially emptied the clip after finally getting up from under chad to get mendes out of there. he's a frontrunner type fighter, he does great when he's the one dictating the pace (like the holloway fight) but does poorly when he's not.
he also uses alot of flashy type techniques just to control distance, like those wheel and hook kicks he likes to throw, that's essentially a waste of energy on his part. nothing more.
you can't create a gastank that barely lasts 10 minutes, and extend it into something that runs for 25 in three months time. not even if he was doing epo for every single one of those days.
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another extremely crucial part to this fight is this, up until diaz, conor had been in the head of every single one of his opponents. in his head he'd already won a round against them, and in their heads it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that it was inevitable that they were to lose the fight.
conor will never in a million years get into diaz head, he wont be able to bully a diaz. expect nate however to slap conor again first oportunity he gets, and to point fingers at him and basicly verbally treat him like shit (like nate always does)
again, i do not see conor reacting well to that type of treatment, as has been brought up numerous times before (by conor) ''dis fight game is 90-95% mintal yeah?'' and this is a guy that walks around with lifts in his shoes,and who likes to pose barrelchested with arms out to the side to give off the impression of being ''brolic'' and who's gotten by on trashtalking every one of his opponents to a point where they've gone in there and performed very unlike how they normaly do.
meaning, for all the talking he does, there are some very apparent insecurities you can point out.
put simply? i do not see it. nor do i see a conor being able to last under the type of pressure and tempo that nate sets.
we saw last time that nate is stronger in the clinch, he's taller & longer, he's years ahead on the ground and he pushes a pace that he just ups and ups and ups and ups. soon as he found his rythm last time it was over for conor, conor either throws everything & the kitchen sink again and gets diaz out in the first 10. or he drowns.
conor was sucking wind badly at the end of 2 rounds with chad mendes, he essentially emptied the clip after finally getting up from under chad to get mendes out of there. he's a frontrunner type fighter, he does great when he's the one dictating the pace (like the holloway fight) but does poorly when he's not.
he also uses alot of flashy type techniques just to control distance, like those wheel and hook kicks he likes to throw, that's essentially a waste of energy on his part. nothing more.
you can't create a gastank that barely lasts 10 minutes, and extend it into something that runs for 25 in three months time. not even if he was doing epo for every single one of those days.
...................................
another extremely crucial part to this fight is this, up until diaz, conor had been in the head of every single one of his opponents. in his head he'd already won a round against them, and in their heads it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that it was inevitable that they were to lose the fight.
conor will never in a million years get into diaz head, he wont be able to bully a diaz. expect nate however to slap conor again first oportunity he gets, and to point fingers at him and basicly verbally treat him like shit (like nate always does)
again, i do not see conor reacting well to that type of treatment, as has been brought up numerous times before (by conor) ''dis fight game is 90-95% mintal yeah?'' and this is a guy that walks around with lifts in his shoes,and who likes to pose barrelchested with arms out to the side to give off the impression of being ''brolic'' and who's gotten by on trashtalking every one of his opponents to a point where they've gone in there and performed very unlike how they normaly do.
meaning, for all the talking he does, there are some very apparent insecurities you can point out.
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Plekz, the leg kick point is bang on. I havent thought too much about this fight yet but that may have convinced me to take diaz with a r1 hedge.
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he can use the angeled sidekick, but it requires him to lift his leg and it leaves him open for counters. it's really only conor that's any sort of ''x-factor'' in this equation. we already know what diaz is gonna do, he's gonna go in there, push the pace, pump his exellent jab, find his distance and as soon as he does he'll start throwing that 1-2 of his, mixed up with verbal abuse and the occasional slap. he'll try to box mcgregor into a corner, and if he gets him there he'll unleash hell to the head and body.
ideal for diaz would be to goad conor into throwing in the pocket with him, but he'll be satisfied with just jabbing and throwing the 1-2 all night aswell.
it's just a terrible stylistic matchup for conor, and that's without even mentioning how much physically bigger diaz is aswell. conor to his credit is an exellent boxer, however he has quite a few defensive flaws, his head movement isn't exellent, and he tends to put himself off-blance when he throws his left. diaz isn't without faults though either, and i wouldn't put it past him to find a sweet spot to ko diaz.
but that's the only way i see him winning, and he needs it early. because as we saw in the first fight (and in other mcgregor fights) he's not great at conserving energy, and his power doesn't seem to carry that well, plus the biggest minus is that as soon as he starts to tire even a little bit, he gets sloppy.
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