UFC 187 Jose Aldo vs Conor McGregor odds released

[PapaBherd]

Surprised it is that close. Maybe they are predicting a lot of people riding the hype and putting big money on Conor and don't want to lay off so much action? If Conor was a 2-1 dog I could see a ton of money going on him. Or is that something more that an individual book would be concerned with and not Vegas odds? I expected like -220/+180 or around there. MMA lines it seems have big swings, it will be interesting to see what happens. I can see early money on Conor and late money on Aldo. Haven't bet in like 15 years and don't follow a ton of MMA lines. What do the bettors on here think will happen?

Most sportsbooks follow the lines released by Vegas. That way, they generally avoid arbitrage betting where punters get a sure thing regardless of outcome.

 

[wisdom blows]

Smart money is on Aldo.

Defensively inept power punchers usually get exposed when fighting their more technically sound counterparts. And the more technically sound fighter happens to be the #1 P4P fighter.

This happens all the time in combat sports.

lol :icon_neut

 

[polio23]

I went ahead and fixed that for you.

Blue belts, smdh...



A little further apart.

Jones was like the -200 favorite.

October 2013, 6k posts. Try harder.

 

[wisdom blows]

How can you even compare Conor's defense to Aldo's?

Aldo has exceptional head movement, and uses angles.

Conor is a jump in and out type fighter, and repeatedly gets caught in fire fights.

Did you watch his fight with Brandao? If he didn't have a chin, he could've been KO'd badly.

And in the Porier fight, he's just reckless, and gets caught by a good shot or 2.

Don't even bring up the Mendes fight to discredit Aldo's defense. Infinitely different type of opponent than your basic striker.

you really are clueless, christ.

 

[FallonFoxGOAT]

October 2013, 6k posts. Try harder.

 

[wisdom blows]

Sigh.

When will people understand that trying to separate individual aspects of MMA doesn't work. Frankie Edgar isn't an amazing striker without the threat of a takedown, but who cares? His skills blend together and elevate his striking to an elite level. If Frankie took Conor down rd 1 and beat him up on the mat, it's easy to see him outstriking Conor the rest of the fight with Conor being worried about a repeat of round 1. It's amazing I have to actually explain this.

Aldo has fought significantly better FIGHTERS than Conor has, so your counterargument is ridiculous.

But... this is a fight between two strikers, lol.

 

[MusterX]

This is such a silly argument. We are not comparing amateur fighters to pro:s. And we are specifically talking about striking.
Yeah, Aldo fighting those high level strikers, right? And he has only been fighting the likes of Mendes 2 his whole career, right?
Fact is, Holloway is probably a better striker than anyone Aldo has faced in a long time, except perhaps Mendes.

In all fairness you may be right but let me put it to you like this. Aldo has cleaned out the division, cleaned it the fuck out. If Conor can't get it done will you accept that Aldo is straight up the baddest 145'er that ever lived? I already accept that, his resume makes him the GOAT of 145. Even if he loses to Conor he is the GOAT of 145.

 

[skombolis]

Sigh.

When will people understand that trying to separate individual aspects of MMA doesn't work. Frankie Edgar isn't an amazing striker without the threat of a takedown, but who cares? His skills blend together and elevate his striking to an elite level. If Frankie took Conor down rd 1 and beat him up on the mat, it's easy to see him outstriking Conor the rest of the fight with Conor being worried about a repeat of round 1. It's amazing I have to actually explain this.

Aldo has fought significantly better FIGHTERS than Conor has, so your counterargument is ridiculous.

The Jung fight was kind of a weird fight with the injury but he had no success against Aldo before then. Then if you look at his other 4 fights of his last 5 and everyone he had to protect against the TD with Mendes 2x, Lamas, and Edgar. I have never seen a guy effortlessly neutralizes wrestlers the way Aldo does as they rarely even get the chance to shoot on him but I'd still have to imagine it bottles up his offense a little and makes him a bit more conservative.

Going against a pure striker has to be something where Aldo would be the most dangerous IMO. And he is motivated. Anybody can always be caught but I think Aldo's striking in this fight is really gonna be something. If someone can beat him in a straight up striking fight..man, I'd just have to give it up to them because that might be maybe the toughest challenge in MMA today. All the champs excel at different things and styles and this is definitely what Aldo would want. I am pretty excited for this fight.

 

[mkess101]

Surprised it is that close. Maybe they are predicting a lot of people riding the hype and putting big money on Conor and don't want to lay off so much action? If Conor was a 2-1 dog I could see a ton of money going on him. Or is that something more that an individual book would be concerned with and not Vegas odds? I expected like -220/+180 or around there. MMA lines it seems have big swings, it will be interesting to see what happens. I can see early money on Conor and late money on Aldo. Haven't bet in like 15 years and don't follow a ton of MMA lines. What do the bettors on here think will happen?

Nick Kalikas will come out with his line, but he'll wait until they announce where the fight is taking place. There will be variance on the line based on where you bet it for sure. Go to a book in Ireland and you'll get great odds on Aldo.

Conor has a ton of hype of course and while some of his rabid fans may put a few bucks on him, in general they aren't the ones who will move the line. Everyone knew he'd stomp Siver, so that line became unplayable. With this fight I imagine the line will hover between Aldo -170 and -210 or so.

I'll probably play Aldo at anything -180 or less, but I'll watch the line closely for any $ that may temporarily get me better odds on Aldo at my book. As a fan, I love the hype of this fight. It's great. As a bettor, I really wish they'd have given Conor one more fight vs. Edgar before the title shot. I actually think we might have seen Frankie at dog odds and I'd have absolutely hammered that line on Edgar. I'll bet Aldo, but won't go nuts unless I get odds I'm not expecting.

 

[skombolis]

Most sportsbooks follow the lines released by Vegas. That way, they generally avoid arbitrage betting where punters get a sure thing regardless of outcome.

I get that a sportsbook wouldn't want to be too far away from the Vegas line so someone can't play the difference in odds. But I know like if an individual book gets too much money on one side they will lay off some of the action just to make sure they don't take a big hit. I guess what I am asking is do only smaller books worry about laying off action or would even Vegas maybe make the line a little closer than they normally would because they know public sentiment will probably mean a lot of people betting on Conor? Or does Vegas not worry about stuff like that and simply just put the line where they think it should be for the fight regardless of probable betting trends? If Conor was a 2-1 dog it would be pretty certain people would load up on him I would think? So does Vegas make it closer because of that or is this line close just because Vegas thinks it should be close?

 

[skombolis]

Nick Kalikas will come out with his line, but he'll wait until they announce where the fight is taking place. There will be variance on the line based on where you bet it for sure. Go to a book in Ireland and you'll get great odds on Aldo.

Conor has a ton of hype of course and while some of his rabid fans may put a few bucks on him, in general they aren't the ones who will move the line. Everyone knew he'd stomp Siver, so that line became unplayable. With this fight I imagine the line will hover between Aldo -170 and -210 or so.

I'll probably play Aldo at anything -180 or less, but I'll watch the line closely for any $ that may temporarily get me better odds on Aldo at my book. As a fan, I love the hype of this fight. It's great. As a bettor, I really wish they'd have given Conor one more fight vs. Edgar before the title shot. I actually think we might have seen Frankie at dog odds and I'd have absolutely hammered that line on Edgar. I'll bet Aldo, but won't go nuts unless I get odds I'm not expecting.

Yeah it seems like Vegas made a pretty tough line for anybody to go too nuts on. If Conor was like +200 people load up on him. This line is right where it is hard to go too crazy. I would imagine even a lot of Conor fans don't want to drop a ton on anythign close to a pickem and for Aldo fans if it gets too close to like -190 or -200 it isn't super attractive despite feeling good about his chances.

Do you think early money will be on Aldo then since it is closer than people may have expected? Or will people still wait and hope Conor fans load up anyway?

 

[skombolis]

That is exactly why you should put money on Aldo!

This happens sometimes to me, and it is a win win.

If Connor wins you are happy for fight, if not, you are happy for the money.

That never worked for me! I always ended up caring about the money more. It got to the point where even if my favorite team won but didn't cover I was pissed. Or i would find myself preferring they lose so I win my bet. In the beginning it made watching sports a lot more fun. But by the end I almost completely stopped being a fan any more other than who I had money on. I wish I could have taken your attitude but i couldn't do it. I ended up quitting betting just because i missed being just a regular fan. I couldn't do both.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah it seems like Vegas made a pretty tough line for anybody to go too nuts on. If Conor was like +200 people load up on him. This line is right where it is hard to go too crazy. I would imagine even a lot of Conor fans don't want to drop a ton on anythign close to a pickem and for Aldo fans if it gets too close to like -190 or -200 it isn't super attractive despite feeling good about his chances.

Do you think early money will be on Aldo then since it is closer than people may have expected? Or will people still wait and hope Conor fans load up anyway?

I don't think you're going to see a ton of line movement tbh. You'll have some, but I can't see big swings given where the odds probably open at most books (based on what I've seen so far).

My guess (somewhat educated, but still a guess) is that you'll see some casuals betting Conor but most sharps on Aldo early. I'd imagine Aldo's line gets a bit worse, probably to around -190 and settles close to that. You'll see the bigger swings later on as they hype builds and people start laying $ down. The thing about bigger bettors is they need to REALLY like the line to have their $ tied up for such a long period of time if they are going to jump on an opening line.

 

[mkess101]

But... this is a fight between two strikers, lol.

Aldo's wrestling and ground game are extremely underrated. And that's almost beside the point. Aldo has had to account for the takedowns vs guys like Edgar and Mendes. That affects both how he and his opponent strike during the fight. Kind of obvious. Whether it means he had to keep his hands just a couple inches lower to make his sprawl effective or that he couldn't open up with kicks as much as he wanted, there's an effect.

I'm quite certain Aldo won't be worried about the takedown at all vs Conor, thus in theory making Aldo's striking more dangerous than it was vs guys who also have great takedowns.

 

[Mister7]

Lol ok.

 

[skombolis]

I don't think you're going to see a ton of line movement tbh. You'll have some, but I can't see big swings given where the odds probably open at most books (based on what I've seen so far).

My guess (somewhat educated, but still a guess) is that you'll see some casuals betting Conor but most sharps on Aldo early. I'd imagine Aldo's line gets a bit worse, probably to around -190 and settles close to that. You'll see the bigger swings later on as they hype builds and people start laying $ down. The thing about bigger bettors is they need to REALLY like the line to have their $ tied up for such a long period of time if they are going to jump on an opening line.

That makes sense

Thanks for the input

 

[sp00k]

I agree with the line

 

[Fedor2000]

I honestly feel Conor should be a much bigger underdog. Aldo should be -400 or -500! Im actually loving Conor right now because he is going to run his mouth so much that it may cause a lot of casuals to bet on him and make the line even closer. Will place money on Aldo soon and more when it gets closer to fight time!

Movie theatre ticket: 20$
Pop corn and Large drink: 15$
Watching the King destroy his "Fool" while making me cash: Priceless!

 

[hoyle1911]

Looks like the hype is working. Those are close odds for a hype job.

 

[Gearc10]

Sigh.

When will people understand that trying to separate individual aspects of MMA doesn't work. Frankie Edgar isn't an amazing striker without the threat of a takedown, but who cares? His skills blend together and elevate his striking to an elite level. If Frankie took Conor down rd 1 and beat him up on the mat, it's easy to see him outstriking Conor the rest of the fight with Conor being worried about a repeat of round 1. It's amazing I have to actually explain this.

Aldo has fought significantly better FIGHTERS than Conor has, so your counterargument is ridiculous.

To be fair, he has also taken significantly more damage and Conor has looked significantly more spectacular against any level that Aldo has fought.

If we are judging on striking alone then its a very intriguing match up, one that I am favoring Mcgregor in.