Point. Anderon really has only countered the Striking of Franklin, Irvin, Forrest, Damian, Cote, and Hendo. All who are slow as hell. So the question of the night is will Vitor's handspeed trump Anderson's counterpunching skill/ timing. I think the first few minutes are key for Vitor. He aint gonna last a 5 round war.
What about Forrest V Franklin? and Jones V Bader?
bader to me is pretty limited in his standup; he has all the tools of all round striking, but hasn't developed any fluidity or diversity in how he uses them or consistency in when he uses them.
his advantages are strength power durability and explosiveness, in the standup and his wrestling; but his holes, especially in his standup are numerous. He almost exclusively uses his hands, an he honestly isn't good enough w/them to get by w/that; from what i have seen his other tools are rudimentary at best, so his off repetoire is both predictable and counterable. Defenisively he is a liability at best, he gets hit by everyone; an by everyone i mean less than technical dynamic or refined strikers, keith jardine-eric schafer.
jones isn't a technician; but he seems to developing a pretty good foundation, more importantly he has exceptional timing-explosiveness-balance-reach-agility which allows him to circumvent his lack of tech/experience. Offensively to me he isn't consistent or steady, more of a fight in spots guy; def he is pretty aware..good sense of range..timing..counters and angles, not to mention his build helps support these things.
basically jones is gonna potshot, pick him off at range; an pick his spots to explode w/spinning back kicks, high kicks, backfists, spinning elbows, lead elbows, leaping knees and lead rights/etc. Baders only chance is to get inside, or at least midrange where he can bring his power to bear; as he has legitimate ko power and a decided strength adv over most at lhw. The problem w/that is that bader has no def; meaning he is gonna have to eat every single shot jones throws, while chasing him or trying to cut him off and while bader is durable..he isn't unstoppable and w/his poor conditioning i don't know that he can keep the pace or workrate necessary to get in stay in or land on jones.
At some point he will land, an we will find out what jones is about; if he can take a shot well or recover, then its a wrap for bader. This should be similar to the hammil fight, the diff being bader is more comfortable throwing, hits ALOT harder and isn't as adverse to getting hit as hammil.
Bader could catch him; but i think he lacks the refinement to put together the shots, set them up to breakdown jones def, or shutdown his off. More importantly i think he lacks the mobility and conditioning to do it the hard way, i.e. pressure and throw and take the punishment til he can land his own.
if jones can't take it though, its a wrap; same w/machida
sidenote-if bader attacks the body or can attack the body; then jones is really in for it,
Thats just my opinion. I also definitely agree with your talk about external factors, both these guys are going to have psychological issues with this fight.
