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Economy U.S Energy Independence: From Net Oil Exporter To Begging OPEC To Increase Production Again.

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Arkain2K, May 9, 2018.

  1. Pseudo Sane Black Belt

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  2. Mendacious Banned Banned

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    Russia literally funds environmentalists in Poland and other places to oppose shale. Poland is one of the few European countries with significant shale deposits.

    When I first found heard of this it was surprising (well not really) because when I think of Russian funded groups I think of nationalists and authoritarians
     
  3. Pseudo Sane Black Belt

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    It's not surprising. Why wouldn't Russia fund any group which advances its interests by destabilizing their rivals? There is no reason not to fund everyone when the goal is conflict.

    Shale is hard, though, and super capital intensive. To my understanding (I am definitely no expert) the only people with the infrastructure and technical know-how to make it viable on a large scale are American. None of the supermajors have wanted much to do with it, because it doesn't scale to their operations.
     
  4. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Will OPEC Really Risk An Oil Price Crash?
    By Liubov Georges | December 3, 2019​

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    https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/opec-really-risk-oil-price-180000575.html
     
  5. Shinigami Blue Belt

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    in spite of Obama

    now with Trump we are not dependent on terrorist nations for oiil
     
  6. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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  7. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    U.S. shale producers begin restoring output as oil prices turn higher
    Jennifer Hiller, Devika Krishna Kumar | June 2, 2020

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    U.S. shale oil producers are beginning to reverse production cuts as prices recover from historic lows, underscoring shale’s ability to quickly adjust to pricing and posing a challenge to OPEC as it considers extending production curbs.

    U.S. producers slashed output in April and May as oil prices collapsed due to a supply glut and as restrictions on populations worldwide to slow the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed fuel demand.

    Shale producers Parsley Energy Inc (PE.N) and EOG Resources Inc (EOG.N) on Tuesday disclosed plans to restore some or all of their output cuts. In North Dakota, state energy officials this week reduced by 7% an estimate of production shut-ins in the second-largest oil producing state.

    Production coming back online is a fraction of what has been cut. Still, returning shale output may complicate deliberations among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies when they meet on Thursday to consider extending an agreement to cut a record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to offset the lost demand from the coronavirus outbreak.

    Unlike OPEC and its allies, shale producers do not participate in government-mandated production cuts. They cut their output only when prices make pumping oil unprofitable.

    For most shale producers, current prices are not enough to turn a profit on new wells, and U.S. oil companies are forecast to pare their output by as much as 2 million bpd this year.

    Parsley plans to restore all of the 26,000 bpd it cut this spring and an EOG Resources executive told investors on Tuesday at an RBC Capital Markets conference it would reopen shuttered wells and add new ones in the second half of the year.

    EOG, one of the largest U.S. shale producers which last year had more than 450,000 bpd of output, starting next month will open wells it had curtailed and “bring on wells that we’ve completed and not turned on yet,” said Kenneth Boedeker, EOG’s head of exploration and production.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...utput-as-oil-prices-turn-higher-idUSKBN2392UG
     
  8. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    OPEC+ Coalition Shaken as Iraq Pushed to Atone For Oil Cheating
    By Grant Smith , Javier Blas , and Salma El Wardany | June 3, 2020


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/-opec
     
  9. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    OPEC+ Keen to Keep U.S. Shale in Check as Oil Prices Rally
    By Reuters | June 3, 2020

    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/03/world/europe/03reuters-oil-opec-analysis.html
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2020
  10. ElKarlo Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Thanks for the updates. I'm curious, but I'm so worried about the US and western civilization that I can't read this right now
     
  11. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    OPEC, Russia meet to extend record oil cuts, push for compliance
    June 5, 2020

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    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rd-oil-cuts-push-for-compliance-idUSKBN23D007
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2020
  12. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    30% of shale oil companies could go belly up if crude stays this cheap
    By Matt Egan, CNN Business | June 23, 2020​

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    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/23/investing/oil-prices-bankruptcy-debt-shale/index.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2021
    ElKarlo likes this.
  13. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    U.S. Shale Needs To Rethink Its Strategy To Survive
    By Haley Zaremba - Jul 02, 2020​

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Needs-To-Rethink-Its-Strategy-To-Survive.amp.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2021
    ElKarlo likes this.
  14. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Fucking hell. So much for that short-lived Energy Independence. Back to begging the OPEC cartel to increase output again, after shackling our own production. :(

    Well, at least we are saving the environment, supposedly by burning $4 Saudi gas instead of $2 American fuel. :confused:
    Biden Caught Flatfooted By Skyrocketing Oil Prices
    By Dan Eberhart, Contributor | Oct 4, 2021


    The case for oil prices continuing their bull run and making a push toward $100 a barrel is strong. The bigger question is what the Biden administration plans to do about it?

    More analysts see $100 oil as a distinct possibility before the end of the year due to a series of supply setbacks this fall. These include outages related to Hurricane Ida in the U.S. and the absence of additional Iranian barrels that the market was expecting by now.

    While U.S. production is moving closer to pre-Ida output levels, the outlook for additional supply from Iran continues to dim.

    Nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran are stalled and may stay that way as long as the new hardline Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi remains in power. That means U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil sector will continue to keep about 1 million barrels a day of additional Iranian exports on the sidelines.

    The expanded OPEC+ cartel, meanwhile, is feasting on high oil prices and has shown little inclination that it plans to add more supply beyond the 400,000 barrels a day per month increment it agreed to previously.

    Adding to the bullish cocktail for crude is sky-high prices for natural gas and LNG in Europe and Asia. This will compel some power plants in these regions to switch from gas to crude oil for power generation during the peak winter demand season.

    The potential uplift in oil demand from this fuel switching could be as high as 1 million barrels a day, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. For power plants with fuel-switching capability, there will be little appetite to buy LNG for the equivalent of $150 a barrel when oil products are cheaper.

    Meanwhile on the demand side, the world is approaching pre-pandemic rates of oil consumption faster than many thought. The Delta variant, the top threat to demand, is getting beaten back in top consuming regions. There are no new lockdowns in Europe, there’s a robust recovery in China road activity, and the United States is lifting its ban on foreign travelers from November 2021.

    All of this will increase oil demand — and prices — in the coming quarters unless there is a commensurate supply response.

    OPEC+ holds about 6 million barrels a day of spare production capacity — excluding Iran — but if it chooses not to add more barrels, prices have nowhere to go but up.

    Economic analysts Goldman Sachs GS, one of the most influential financial players in oil markets, expects international benchmark Brent prices to hit $90 a barrel by the end of the year. That’s an increase from their previous forecast of $80, which Brent was already closing in on as of Monday, Oct. 4.

    It should be emphasized that Brent has already risen to around $80 even though global oil demand remains roughly 4 million barrels a day less than its pre-pandemic levels. It’s not hard to see where this is heading if we leave it up to OPEC+ to satisfy rising demand. Prices will go to the moon.

    Between 2011 and 2014, consumers tolerated an average price of $107 a barrel. This dropped to $57 a barrel in the subsequent five years through 2019 largely because of the boom in America’s shale oil patch, which added vast amounts of non-OPEC supply that tempered prices.

    However, the Biden administration and Wall Street concerns about the low-carbon energy transition have put shackles on shale.

    U.S. oil production remains nearly 2 million barrels a day below its peak of 13.1 million barrels a day. The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. output to remain near 11.3 million through the end of 2021 before increasing to an average of 11.7 million barrels a day in 2022.

    That’s a significant additional oil, but shale producers could do much more.

    The Biden administration could improve the investment climate around shale by ceasing its attacks on the oil industry.

    Investors’ ESG (environmental, social and governance) concerns were hampering the industry before Biden arrived but have been turbocharged by his administration’s policies aimed at keeping new oil and gas production in the ground.

    These include cancellation of the Keystone XL Pipeline, an attempt to halt oil and gas leasing on federal lands, and plans to increase taxes and royalties on producers — as well as hitting them with big fees on methane emissions. Many of these punitive measures can be found in Democrats’ proposed $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill.

    The Biden administration has failed to square its long-term climate ambitions, which call for a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, with the short-term needs of the American economy.

    Oil demand will continue to grow through at least 2030, even if the world implements aggressive climate policies. The energy transition will take place over decades, not a few years. Washington can’t lose sight of this fact.

    The U.S. oil industry will be needed to meet this demand unless we want to turn over total control over the global oil market to OPEC, as we did in the 1970s. Biden has already resorted to pleading with OPEC producers to add supply even though he has hands on the controls of the world’s largest oil and gas producing nation.

    Biden and Democrats would be well advised to think twice before going down such a precarious path with the midterm elections just over a year away.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danebe...ht-flatfooted-by-skyrocketing-oil-prices/amp/
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
  15. Officer Rick Citadel Of Ricks Belt Banned

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    This aged well
     
  16. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Oil prices hit a 7-year high as industry feud with Biden administration continues
    By Bethany Blankley | Oct 6, 2021​

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    Oil prices hit a 7-year high this week as American oil and gas companies continue to fight the Biden administration over policies restricting production.

    As the economy began to reopen this year and the demand for fuel increased, President Joe Biden, through executive order, halted and restricted oil and gas leases on federal lands, stopped construction of the Keystone Pipeline, and redirected U.S. policy to import more oil from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia (OPEC+) instead of bolstering American oil and gas exploration and production.

    The U.S. led the world in oil and gas production for seven consecutive years prior to this year. It produced more oil and petroleum liquids than any other country, with Texas leading the way, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

    Texas remains the top crude oil and natural gas producing state in the U.S. In 2020, Texas accounted for 43% of the nation's crude oil production and 26% of its marketed natural gas production, EIA reports.

    In Texas and across the country, however, gas prices have soared. In Houston, the state’s largest city with close access to refineries, gas prices were historically low last year, hovering at $1.50 a gallon at the pump. Now gas in some areas of the state is $3 a gallon or more. In other states like California, gas prices have already surpassed $5 a gallon.

    As of Oct. 6, the average national retail price was $3.22 a gallon for regular gasoline, according to AAA, roughly one dollar more than it was last year. The highest average was $4.42 in California.

    On Oct. 4, OPEC+ said it planned to increase oil production by up to 400,000 barrels a day in November, causing a market reaction.

    West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose 2.3%, reaching a seven-year high. Its international counterpart, Brent, rose 2.5%, its highest level in three years. Oil is expected to reach over $100 a barrel by the end of the year, driving prices up even further.

    In August, while the administration saw gas prices and inflation rising, and asked OPEC+ to increase oil output, it imposed harsher restrictions on American companies and failed to comply with a court order reversing an executive order.

    In an Aug. 11 statement, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said, “While OPEC+ recently agreed to production increases, these increases will not fully offset previous production cuts that OPEC+ imposed during the pandemic until well into 2022. At a critical moment in the global recovery, this is simply not enough.”

    At the same time, the Western Energy Alliance and the Petroleum Association of Wyoming were fighting Biden’s ban on oil and natural gas leasing after the Department of the Interior failed to comply with a Louisiana court ruling overturning the ban. As gas prices were going up and many Americans in the oil and gas sector were still out of work, “the Interior Department still had not issued a plan on how it would conduct its reported comprehensive review of the federal oil and natural gas program” as directed by a January executive order, the Alliance argued.

    “[F]or six months the leasing ban [was] completely futile, as no progress [was] made on the supposed reason for the ban in the first place,” the Alliance said.

    On Oct. 4, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said at a press briefing, “We’re going to continue to use every tool at our disposal to ensure we can keep gas prices down for the American public.” But those in the oil and gas sector argue the surest way to do this is to allow American companies to produce more oil and gas and for the Biden administration to follow the law.

    Instead, the federal government has buckled down on not allowing onshore lease sales to be held for the entire year of 2021.

    Plaintiffs in Louisiana and Wyoming have asked the judges in their respective cases to force the Department of the Interior to comply with federal law and “meet its obligations under the Mineral Leasing Act. This administration is not above the law. It must comply with laws passed by Congress and orders by the federal judiciary, whether it agrees with them or not.”

    Pete Obermueller, president of the Petroleum Association of Wyoming, said, “the Biden Administration must do more than say it will follow the law, it must follow the law in practice.”

    https://www.thecentersquare.com/nat...cle_75397262-26b8-11ec-8110-2f727b34f38a.html
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
  17. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Oil is back up to $80/barrel, it's time to resume pumping for the wells that aren't on federal land (those have been canned by Biden). Only this time only the smaller private companies are fueling the growth since the big public oil companies aren't in a rush to overproduce and drive prices down again.

    Shale Oil Is Booming Again in the Permian

    By David Wethe, Kevin Crowley and Sergio Chapa | October 11, 2021

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    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shale-oil-booming-again-permian-080003947.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2021
  18. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    U.S. Oil Prices Continue to Surge, Breaking Seven-Year Record
    By Caroline Downey | October 11, 2021

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    As demand for energy continues to skyrocket due to the post-COVID recovery, U.S. oil prices have hit $80-a-barrel for the first time in nearly seven years.

    On Monday, crude oil closed at $80.52 a barrel. The last time oil finished above $80 was October 31, 2014. While seasonal fluctuations in gas prices are typical, with hikes expected during the summer when leisure travel and transportation are at a high, they usually temper by the fall.

    The national average price for gasoline has increased by 7 cents in the last week alone, landing at a steep $3.27 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA.

    The price spike seems to contradict the administration’s claims that recent inflationary pressures are transitory.

    As energy demand persists, supply has lagged significantly behind, prompting President Biden to demand that OPEC and its allies increase oil production. As one of his first acts in office, Biden curtailed domestic drilling by shutting down the Keystone oil pipeline and imposing a moratorium on new oil and gas drilling leases.

    The cartel of 13 oil-producing nations mainly in the Middle East and Africa has the power to expand output and help anchor the price surges but has so far only committed to adding slightly more oil to the market.

    The administration’s commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2023, in accordance with the Paris Climate Accords, could exacerbate supply issues.

    The seven year record high for U.S. oil prices also comes amid a looming energy crisis, marked by surges in natural gas prices and coal costs in addition to oil.

    In Europe, natural gas is now worth the equivalent of $230 per barrel, a 130 percent increase from early September and eight times higher than the same period last year, according to data published by the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.

    The story is similar in East Asia, where the cost of natural gas is up 85 percent from the beginning of September, settling at approximately $204 per barrel in oil terms.

    https://news.yahoo.com/u-oil-prices-continue-surge-193337716.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2021
  19. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Gas prices are at 7-year highs, and Biden can't do much about it
    Analysis by Matt Egan, CNN Business | October 08, 2021


    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/08/business/gas-prices-oil-biden-opec/index.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2021
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  20. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    U.S. shale has a message for the Biden administration: Ask us to increase oil production, not OPEC
    By Holly Ellyatt | NOV 16 2021

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    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/16...k-us-to-increase-oil-production-not-opec.html
     
    ElKarlo likes this.

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