Opinion piece from German magazine DER SPIEGEL, translated via DeePL. I agree with all that's written there, this is a bad mistake.
Source:
https://m.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...ht-die-kurden-und-staerkt-iran-a-1290323.html
Trumps Syria Advance
Guarantee for endless discord
Donald Trump wants to withdraw the US troops from Syria - and thus march Turkey will march into the northeast of the civil war. This step is a betrayal of the Kurds and strengthens Iran.
An analysis by Christoph Reuter, Beirut
Monday, 07.10.2019 12:18h CET
The White House statement sounded so lapidary as if the whole thing had nothing to do with it: "Turkey will soon make progress with its long-planned deployment in Turkey," the Sunday statement said. The American armed forces would "neither support nor be involved in this operation" and after the victory over the "Caliphate" of the "Islamic State" would no longer be present in the "immediate area".
What does that mean in concrete terms? Remains unclear. Probably not even the commanders of the 1000 US soldiers in Northeast Syria know it, maybe not even US President Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo, his third foreign minister by now, know it. The position of the fourth National Security Adviser in Trump's cabinet is still vacant after the dismissal of the third incumbent in September.
USA give Iran a stage win on the silver platter
But one thing is certain about this communication: it is a declaration of bankruptcy of American foreign policy. There are three main reasons for this:
Since 2014, the USA has massively supported the Kurdish militia of the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) with weapons, air support and its own special forces in the fight against the terrorist militia of the IS. Now the SDF were in leadership and structure an offshoot of the separatist organization PKK, which had once originated in Turkey, the new name was just another label. But they fought for almost five years and finally defeated the terror caliphate that dominated large parts of Eastern Syria in the summer of 2014 in March 2019. To leave these allies now succinctly to a Turkish invasion will in future make any political formation more sceptical about the promises of the protecting power of the free world.
Syria will not become more peaceful by an invasion of the Kurdish territories by the Turkish army, on the contrary: Either fierce battles will break out between the Turkish army, which is powerful on paper but often inexperienced in operations, and the powerful Kurdish units. Or, more likely, the Kurdish leadership will come to terms with Syria's dictator Bashar al-Assad and his protector Russia.
Assad's regime can also take back the northeast, but the Russians are blocking the Turkish invasion.
Trump's advance shows that his foreign policy is not only amoral but also completely contradictory. For the indirect winner of an American withdrawal from Syria's oil-rich north-east will be Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Assad's most loyal allies, and Washington's greatest enemies.
Two years ago, Trump broke the hard-negotiated nuclear treaty that Tehran had adhered to with the intention of persuading Iran to surrender. The result was a renewed economic embargo, a high-risk military escalation, a crash of the Iranian economy - and now the radical heirs of Khomeini are being served a stage victory on a silver platter.
For Trump's domestic politics the rest of the world must serve
The essence of the succinct sentences from the White House: There is only domestic politics left for which the rest of the world has to serve. Trump is under pressure:
The scandal surrounding his attempts to persuade the Ukrainian government to interfere in US elections has developed unexpected force.
He has cancelled the announced withdrawal from Afghanistan.
What remains is a withdrawal from Syria in order to score points with his electorate.
No matter what consequences this has for Syria, for the allies and not least for the fight against the IS. The IS has lost its openly controlled territory. But al-Qaeda has proven long enough that such a thing does not mean the end of a terrorist group.
Erdogan wants to change Syria's demography
In addition, the SDF units did not massacre IS members throughout the country, but took prisoners. Many prisoners. About 10,000 men and 80,000 women, old people, children. Nobody wants them, not even the countries of origin of foreign IS fighters like France and Germany. The USA does not want them either. Turkey should take care of them. Which it won't do either.
What exactly will happen in the quietest and - in comparison to Assad's rule - by far freest territory of Syria is open. The Turkish army has assembled troops and armoured vehicles in Akcakale. Exactly where Turkey still maintained good neighbourly relations with the IS in October 2014 and the border crossing to the IS area remained open, while the Kurdish inhabitants of Kobane 60 kilometers further west led a desperate struggle against the advancing IS troops. There Turkey kept the border hermetically sealed, not even allowing the US to use its air base in Incirlik, Turkey, to support the Kurds.
This is exactly where Turkish President Tayyib Erdogan wants his army to march in: allegedly to create a dozen kilometre deep "security zone" along the entire border. And to enable Syrian refugees to return home.
What he will actually create is a combat zone, because Kobane and most Kurdish cities are right on the border. Moreover, the vast majority of Syrians who fled to Turkey do not come from the northeast of the civil war country, but from Homs, Aleppo, Damascus, the Arab parts. Deporting them now to the Kurdish territories would be an attempt at demographic change and a guarantee of endless discord.
Perhaps this offensive will come to a standstill much sooner than Erdogan and his neo-Ottoman strategist dream of. Perhaps US troops will stay in some areas for the time being. Perhaps it will remain an invasion of Manbidsch, the predominantly Arab city west of the Euphrates, which the Kurds have annexed and which Erdogan has been demanding for years.
That sounds strange, but Erdogan's motives are also domestic. He is not interested in another Syria, but in an enlarged Turkey. At any rate, this can be inferred from the way in which the areas in the north-west already dominated by the Turkish military are being treated step by step as Turkish governor provinces.
What is certain is that the USA under Trump is no longer interested in a foreign policy that does not care about its consequences.
Translated with
www.DeepL.com/Translator