International Trumps tariffs on China working.

You voted for Duterte?

Nope

Me, never voted in government elections. When choices are between worse and worse, spending time to vote is a fucking waste.

Funny thing is: Duterte's slogan was for 'change' and he won because of it. Filipinos never stopped to think that his fist logo really represents change. A fist to the face is a change to the structure of the skull, so is a 9mm bullet to the head.

People, when someone promises you something, make sure it's specific so they can be held more accountable to fulfilling them. Sadly, Filipinos never thought about it, costing thousands of lives and the Spratlys.
 
^^ Of course, the US also engineered the first successful airplanes and launched the first liquid propellant rockets, so chalk down aerospace as another industry spawned by American innovation. It doesn't get a lot more 'high tech' than that pair.

But, but, America grabbed von Braun and his peers from Germany. Also grabbed the research of Unit 731 from Japan. Isn't that taking other country's IP?! :p
 
What is the end result that you are hoping for (and willing to pay extra taxes and in terms of a growth slowdown for)?



China has long been willing to negotiate. What specific outcome are you hoping for?
Allow unions, raise environmental protections, stop stealing tech.
 
Nope



Funny thing is: Duterte's slogan was for 'change' and he won because of it. Filipinos never stopped to think that his fist logo really represents change. A fist to the face is a change to the structure of the skull, so is a 9mm bullet to the head.

People, when someone promises you something, make sure it's specific so they can be held more accountable to fulfilling them. Sadly, Filipinos never thought about it, costing thousands of lives and the Spratlys.


Lives,Jobs,Spratleys!

#Obosen!

DDS pa din. Lol.
 
But, but, America grabbed von Braun and his peers from Germany. Also grabbed the research of Unit 731 from Japan. Isn't that taking other country's IP?! :p


I used to think Unit 731 invented Yakult
 
I think you flatter yourself unjustly with that last line. If you look at the scaling of some of the charts you posted, the way they insinuate claims that I think you'd be uncomfortable actually making, and other issues, at the very least you'd have to say that it's not "hard facts."

There isn't a whole lot that would make me uncomfortable about US manufacturing real output, employment and hourly wages all on a consistent, multi-year upward trajectory with 575,000+ of those jobs a direct result of reshoring, or the forecasts that America is projected to be the most competitive country in the world by the year end of 2020. Just about everybody was wrong and underestimated the capacity for innovation here. There were people claiming there are factory jobs at the federal minimum when it's actually triple that and way above Bernie's "living wage" standard.

Not only is it being driven by a massive volume of available data, developments in analytics and machine learning, new forms of human-machine interaction and the ability to transmit digital instructions to the physical world but it also uses predictive capabilities to generate value and create more efficient logistics to handle materials throughout the supply chain. These developments are lowering the total cost of ownership for US based production and creating more jobs than they're eliminating, more jobs than we'll likely even be able to fill.

None of this is 'political' for me, I suppose aside from the fact my local city/state economy is being transformed into one of the advanced manufacturing capitals of the world. I care about economic development and technological leadership; not Democrats and Republicans or Obama and Trump. It transcends all of that and it's gorgeous. Intel has more manufacturing capacity here than anywhere in the world while Advotech, Amkor, Everspin, Lansdale*, Microchip, ON, Collabratech and Entrepix are all HQed.

Impact.png


See, I think this last point is good, but look through this thread and others. That's where a lot of the confusion is, and thus where someone who wants to add clarity to the discussion can focus. Look at my exchange with @Ice That Jaw.

Right on, "TDS" definitely goes both ways.

who did our companies steal IP from?

From China, bro. The same country whose ideas for raising a domestic tech industry included importing secondhand Japanese semiconductor lines that were outdated before they were even shipped. The biggest reason East Asia ever got a jump on high technology was because they partnered up with American firms; this is Japan, South Korea, Taiwan. China doesn't deserve that privilege, they can go assemble some mobile phones for Apple.
 
I agree we need more finesse, but the Chinese play us for time. The longer they wait til we get a real agreement, the Stronger they are. We got minor concessions but they aren't enough to protect us companies from IP infringement and all

I personally wouldn't be opposed to completely choking off the likes ZTE and Fujian Jinhua from US components on which they're dependent to the point of not only forcing them to temporarily shut down their global operations but total collapse, the loss in sales would quite frankly be worth it. Banning Huawei equipment from US government use was a good first step but it'd be better if it was extended to banning the sale of their products in the United States outright. It obviously goes without saying that every single attempted Chinese acquisition of US tech assets from here on is blocked with no discussion to be had about it.
 
This is now in effect.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-are-said-to-face-new-scrutiny-by-u-s-panel

Foreigners seeking to invest in U.S aircraft and missile manufacturers, semiconductors or two dozen other industries would face heightened scrutiny by a government committee wielding stronger powers.

Investors interested in American developers of semiconductors, telecommunications, missile technology, aircraft, and batteries and other products would see their bids undergo more intensive review, a senior administration official told reporters at a briefing.

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. will begin subjecting any foreign investment, including non-controlling ones, in 27 industries to the stricter review process. It will apply if the investment would result in a board seat, any decision-making power or the disclosure of non-public information about a company, according to the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the policy.

The Trump administration, with bipartisan support from lawmakers, is strengthening CFIUS power to block or force changes in deals as it escalates a trade war with China that has rattled markets and raised political tensions between Beijing and Washington. Review of foreign acquisitions for national security risks by CFIUS, as the panel is known, will no longer be voluntary under a law Congress passed earlier this year.


It seems like the European Union agrees, huh.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rules-on-foreign-investment-to-fend-off-china

The European Union is hammering out the first bloc-wide rules to prevent foreign investments from threatening national security, as Chinese acquisitions foster political unease. Concerns are mounting across the western world about national security risks tied to foreign investment, particularly by China.

Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump blocked a Chinese-backed investor from buying Lattice Semiconductor Corp. as a result of national-security worries and Germany moved to shield cutting-edge technologies after a bid by China’s Midea Group Co. for robot maker Kuka AG prompted an outcry. Earlier this year, the German government stopped a Chinese bid by vetoing the potential purchase of machine-tool manufacturer Leifeld Metal Spinning AG.

“We are making up for lost time,” [chief negotiator] Franck Proust said. “All the world’s other powers have their own investment-screening systems. Only Europe doesn’t have such a tool.”


@snakedafunky
 
who did our companies steal IP from?
Other US companies or innovators. My point being that our business leaders are also rotten greedy humans just like theirs, but draped in a different flag. Much like we get pissed as fuck when we hear about other countries trying to spy on us, meanwhile we're doing it everywhere too. I'm not condoning either or denying their destructiveness.
 
Calling it now. Trump gets a deal done with Xi at G20. China eases some of its market restrictions, dial down their corporate espionage for a few years and agrees to buy more American products. It just won't be the sweeping changes some are hoping for. Xi will say he stood up to Trump, and Trump will say he got concessions from China. Both go home claiming they won.
 
Calling it now. Trump gets a deal done with Xi at G20. China eases some of its market restrictions, dial down their corporate espionage for a few years and agrees to buy more American products. It just won't be the sweeping changes some are hoping for. Xi will say he stood up to Trump, and Trump will say he got concessions from China. Both go home claiming they won.

I'd be fine with dropping the tariffs if only for the sake of inciting resurgent financial markets which you'd definitely appreciate, the way they react to any little sign or queue is ridiculously sensitive. I don't think there's anything China will ever do to let up on its empire of IP and trade secret theft, for that they simply won't ever be allowed to invest in US tech assets again and it's the very least the US can do to protect itself.

If Chinese companies also dependent on such tech to operate need to be forcefully dissolved, then so be it. PRC can deal with the political instability loss of employment brings. It's also time to put R&D of quantum cryptography at the forefront and into overdrive, stop blowing tens of billions on a perpetually outsized inventory of bulky military vehicles.
 
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/The-party-turns-sour-for-Xi

When Deng initiated his economic revolution four decades ago, he knew China could not modernize without the help of the West, especially the U.S. Yet, Beijing's foreign policy in recent years has done nothing but to convince Washington that its engagement with China since 1978 has been a costly mistake.

Despite the appearance of Xi's political dominance, we can hear grumblings about his leadership, in particular his handling of U.S.-China relations. On Nov. 18, Long Yongtu, the former vice minister of commerce who negotiated China's entry into the World Trade Organization, publicly rebuked Beijing's management of U.S.-China trade disputes.

Speaking at the 9th Caixin Summit in Beijing, he said China should not have mixed politics with trade, in an apparent dig at Xi's desire to maintain his tough image even at the risk of trade war. He also pointed out that China's decision to retaliate against the U.S. with tariffs on soybeans is "unwise" because China needs to import soybeans.

Long is only the latest senior figure to risk Xi's ire by publicly, albeit obliquely, casting doubts on his policies. The most significant individual who recently voiced similar misgivings is Deng Pufang, Deng Xiaoping's eldest son. Deng Pufang, the honorary chairman of the China Disabled Persons' Federation, delivered a speech at the federation's national conference in mid-September that was immediately censored by the authorities because it was seen as critical of Xi (the speech's content was leaked in late October).

Deng's speech was noteworthy for its veiled but firm rejection of the key pillars of Xi's policies. By calling for "seeking truth from facts... maintaining a clear head, knowing one's own strengths and weaknesses, and avoiding overestimating oneself and behaving recklessly," Deng implied Xi's policies violated these dictates laid down by Deng Xiaoping.

Xi's domestic policy has also come under criticism couched in academic jargons. At a Nov. 1 conference celebrating a book by Wu Jinglian, an esteemed economist, several scholars openly voiced views challenging the party line. Wu, 88, pointed out that China's difficulties today are rooted in the lack of market reforms, rule of law, and democracy.

Other participants called for restraining the state's power, decentralizing authority and protecting people's rights -- in clear contradiction with Xi's policy of centralizing power and tightening social control. In an essay published in late October by The National School of Development of Peking University, Zhang Weiying, another leading economist, declared that hyping the so-called "China model" -- the idea that state-capitalist development under autocracy is superior to liberal democratic capitalism -- is not only dangerous, but also responsible for the clash between China and the West.
 
We're hurting our own economy, but because China is also hurting, that's good?
I'd bet the people claiming we're "winning" in China can't articulate actual policy goals, forget about describing why those goals are beneficial.

It goes barely beyond "fuck China".
 
We're hurting our own economy, but because China is also hurting, that's good?

Why bother trying to explain trade? You are talking to the "But Hillary" crowd.

I'd bet the people claiming we're "winning" in China can't articulate actual policy goals, forget about describing why those goals are beneficial.

It goes barely beyond "fuck China".

The broad policy goals are for China to cease engaging in writ large currency manipulation, overbuilding, subsidization, product dumping, lack of reciprocity, forced technology transfers and the state directed intransigent strategy for the outright theft of intellectual property and trade secrets that violate their WTO free trade agreements and undercut US output, competitiveness, employment, investment, research, development, innovation and strategic domestic industries (a few of which America literally brought into existence) invaluable to our sustained economic growth and national security.

The problem is, the PRC isn't going to willingly cease doing any of that because those are fundamental tenants of their development model and a significant factor in how they've managed to build themselves up to present day status; asking nicely whilst maintaining the shitty status quo isn't exactly working out and the relationship we have with them isn't free trade.

So there's a number of things the US either can, has and/or should do to punish them for those activities including but not limited to: blocking all foreign investment in US tech assets (Lattice, Xcerra, Qualcomm), choking off access to US components critical to the global operations of Chinese corporations (ZTE, Fujian Jinhua), banning the sale of products in the US (Huawei) and controversially implementing tariffs on imports. However...

Does this actually hurt us more than what has been outlined in the Administration spanning, bipartisan accounts detailed in the 2011 USITC, 2016 USTR, 2017 USTR or 2017 IP Commission reports? I'd sincerely welcome the input of @Gandhi, @Trotsky, @japman40, @Rational Poster, @Edison Carasio, @Darth_Inv1ctu5 here as well, all posters I respect and agree with on a number of other domestic political issues from browsing topics on here.

This is where we are right now and as noted it can change, although I'm going to have some difficulty buying any feigned sympathy for a large chunk of Trump's base being the most affected. The US is the world's largest agriculture exporter by a considerable distance and it was a given that the sector - less than 1% of US GDP output - would be collateral damage.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...g-for-most-of-trump-s-trade-war-research-says

President Donald Trump The United States of America is succeeding in making China pay most of the cost of his the trade war it has been begging for.

That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers.

According to Zoller-Rydzek and Felbermayr, the tariffs will do what Trump has longed for: They will cut American imports of affected Chinese goods by more than a third, and lower the bilateral trade deficit by 17 percent.

The Trump administration Robert Lighthizer (ND: as if Trump is running the show here) selected products with the highest “price elasticity,” or high availability of substitutes. The Chinese products hit by US tariffs can mostly be replaced by other goods, forcing exporters to cut selling prices to keep buyers.

“Through its strategic choice of Chinese products, the U.S. government was not only able to minimize the negative effects on U.S. consumers and firms, but also to create substantial net welfare gains in the U.S.,” the researchers wrote.


It is if it forces China to the negotiating table. Not so much if it ends in WWIII.

China has long been willing to negotiate. What specific outcome are you hoping for?

For China to cease being the only country in the world in which all of the above is a profound problem, something which virtually all of America's Western and East Asian allies are in agreement with. There are reasons Dem leadership is backing the DJT Admin actions, the EU is looking to establish its own incarnation of CFIUS, Germany moved to block multiple state-backed Chinese acquisitions of national assets and Australia has banned the likes of Huawei and ZTE from its telecom industry.

Its a good thing the US is focusing on China instead of Europe or NAFTA.

Well, at least I have you. I miss Homer, man.
s0208.gif
 
This is where we are right now and as noted it can change, although I'm going to have some difficulty buying any feigned sympathy for a large chunk of Trump's base being the most affected.

I don't think partisanship in America is symmetrical. Liberals truly are concerned about the damage being done, regardless of the voting patterns of the regions that are hardest hit.

Also, I think this is relevant here:

DsDc3kFWkAYn_LS.jpg:large


For China to cease being the only country in the world in which all of the above is a profound problem, something which virtually all of America's Western and East Asian allies are in agreement with.

That's fine, but there is no reason at all to think that tariffs are going to bring that about (also, he gave a different, even crazier answer).
 
The broad policy goals are for China to cease engaging in writ large currency manipulation, overbuilding, subsidization, product dumping, lack of reciprocity, forced technology transfers and the state directed intransigent strategy for the outright theft of intellectual property and trade secrets that violate their WTO free trade agreements and undercut US output, competitiveness, employment, investment, research, development, innovation and strategic domestic industries (a few of which America literally brought into existence) invaluable to our sustained economic growth and national security.

The problem is, the PRC isn't going to willingly cease doing any of that because those are fundamental tenants of their development model and a significant factor in how they've managed to build themselves up to present day status; asking nicely whilst maintaining the shitty status quo isn't exactly working out and the relationship we have with them isn't free trade.

So there's a number of things the US either can, has and/or should do to punish them for those activities including but not limited to: blocking all foreign investment in US tech assets (Lattice, Xcerra, Qualcomm), choking off access to US components critical to the global operations of Chinese corporations (ZTE, Fujian Jinhua), banning the sale of products in the US (Huawei) and controversially implementing tariffs on imports. However...

Does this actually hurt us more than what has been outlined in the Administration spanning, bipartisan accounts detailed in the 2011 USITC, 2016 USTR, 2017 USTR or 2017 IP Commission reports? I'd sincerely welcome the input of @Gandhi, @Trotsky, @japman40, @Rational Poster, @Edison Carasio, @Darth_Inv1ctu5 here as well, all posters I respect and agree with on a number of other domestic political issues from browsing topics on here.
Those are solid policy goals that I think rational people agree on, but there's no evidence that I've seen that shows it's working (did they stop stealing intellectual property?). No one wants to see China stealing intellectual property or undercutting industries.

I am not opposed to using tough tactics to achieve these goals either. But the way this administration is carrying out this strategy is haphazard and poorly thought out. Has this administration even laid out a plan as to how the goals are achieved through tariffs? I certainly haven't seen it. And I have a huge problem with a clumsy strategy that drags down the world economy without a clear path to achieving our goals. I think the reality is that Trump is a nationalist doing nationalist stuff and he doesn't fucking care who gets hurt, unless they vote for him (see farm subsidies handed out as a result of collateral damage).

Just a side note, your response was much more articulate and thought out than the Trumpster who's claiming we're winning (which is who my post was aimed at).
 
The broad policy goals are for China to cease engaging in writ large currency manipulation, overbuilding, subsidization, product dumping, lack of reciprocity, forced technology transfers and the state directed intransigent strategy for the outright theft of intellectual property and trade secrets that violate their WTO free trade agreements and undercut US output, competitiveness, employment, investment, research, development, innovation and strategic domestic industries (a few of which America literally brought into existence) invaluable to our sustained economic growth and national security.

The problem is, the PRC isn't going to willingly cease doing any of that because those are fundamental tenants of their development model and a significant factor in how they've managed to build themselves up to present day status; asking nicely whilst maintaining the shitty status quo isn't exactly working out and the relationship we have with them isn't free trade.

So there's a number of things the US either can, has and/or should do to punish them for those activities including but not limited to: blocking all foreign investment in US tech assets (Lattice, Xcerra, Qualcomm), choking off access to US components critical to the global operations of Chinese corporations (ZTE, Fujian Jinhua), banning the sale of products in the US (Huawei) and controversially implementing tariffs on imports. However...

Does this actually hurt us more than what has been outlined in the Administration spanning, bipartisan accounts detailed in the 2011 USITC, 2016 USTR, 2017 USTR or 2017 IP Commission reports? I'd sincerely welcome the input of @Gandhi, @Trotsky, @japman40, @Rational Poster, @Edison Carasio, @Darth_Inv1ctu5 here as well, all posters I respect and agree with on a number of other domestic political issues from browsing topics on here.

This is where we are right now and as noted it can change, although I'm going to have some difficulty buying any feigned sympathy for a large chunk of Trump's base being the most affected. The US is the world's largest agriculture exporter by a considerable distance and it was a given that the sector - less than 1% of US GDP output - would be collateral damage.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...g-for-most-of-trump-s-trade-war-research-says

President Donald Trump The United States of America is succeeding in making China pay most of the cost of his the trade war it has been begging for.

That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers.

According to Zoller-Rydzek and Felbermayr, the tariffs will do what Trump has longed for: They will cut American imports of affected Chinese goods by more than a third, and lower the bilateral trade deficit by 17 percent.

The Trump administration Robert Lighthizer (ND: as if Trump is running the show here) selected products with the highest “price elasticity,” or high availability of substitutes. The Chinese products hit by US tariffs can mostly be replaced by other goods, forcing exporters to cut selling prices to keep buyers.

“Through its strategic choice of Chinese products, the U.S. government was not only able to minimize the negative effects on U.S. consumers and firms, but also to create substantial net welfare gains in the U.S.,” the researchers wrote.






For China to cease being the only country in the world in which all of the above is a profound problem, something which virtually all of America's Western and East Asian allies are in agreement with. There are reasons Dem leadership is backing the DJT Admin actions, the EU is looking to establish its own incarnation of CFIUS, Germany moved to block multiple state-backed Chinese acquisitions of national assets and Australia has banned the likes of Huawei and ZTE from its telecom industry.



Well, at least I have you. I miss Homer, man.
s0208.gif

I'm not that good at economy. You need Jack for that.
 

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