Trilogy fights (1-1) favor the person who won the second fight.

I compiled a list of well known trilogies in MMA and Boxing to see if there's enough data for statistical evidence

Causation and correlation are not interchangeable. Welcome to data science 101.
 
They had a trilogy in the UFC. And AA wasn't robbed in 3rd fight.

im obviously aware of that,
OP wasnt limited to UFC, and it seems weird to refer to only 3 fights if they fought 4 times.
 
I've had a theory since I watched the Gatti vs. Ward trilogy (one of the greatest in boxing history), that the third fight generally favors the winner of the second fight in a 1-1 trilogy. I compiled a list of well known trilogies in MMA and Boxing to see if there's enough data for statistical evidence

MMA:
GSP vs. Hughes: Hughes, GSP, GSP
Cruz vs. Faber: Faber, Cruz, Cruz
Cain vs. JDS: JDS, Cain, Cain
Chuck vs. Randy: Randy, Chuck, Chuck

Penn vs. Hughes: Penn, Hughes, Penn
Forrest vs. Ortiz: Ortiz, Forrest, Forrest
Melendez vs. Thomson: Thomson, Melendez, Melendez

Stout vs. Fisher: Stout, Fisher, Stout
Bas vs. Frank: Frank, Bas, Bas
Sylvia vs. Arlovski: Arlovski, Sylvia, Sylvia

Total third fight record: Second fight winner 8 - First fight winner - 2

I'm sure I missed some 1-1 trilogies here, so let me know.

Boxing:
Gatti-Ward: Ward, Gatti, Gatti
Michael Carbajal-Humberto Gonzalez: Carbajal, Gonzalez, Gonzalez
Ali vs. Norton: Norton, Ali, Ali
Patterson vs. Johansson: Johansson, Patterson, Patterson

Griffith vs. Benny Paret - Griffith, Paret, Griffith (Paret died in the ring unfortunately)
Barney Ross vs. Jimmy McLarnin - Ross, Mclarnin, Ross
Barerra vs. Morales - Morales, Barerra, Barerra
Zale vs. Graziano - Zale, Graziano, Zale
Ali vs. Frazier - Frazier, Ali, Ali
Leonard vs. Duran - Duran, Leonard, Leonard
Duran vs. De Jesus - De Jesus, Duran, Duran

McLarnin vs. Ross - Ross, McLarnin, Ross
Pacquiao vs. Morales - Morales, Pac, Pac
Vasquez vs. Marquez - Marquez, Vasquez, Vasquez
Total third fight record: Second fight winner 10 - First fight winner - 4

Total: 18-6 75% wins for the winner of the second fight


Why is this the case? There are a few reasons.

1. A "fluke"
Example: JDS KO'd Cain in the first fight, and people were wondering if it was a fluke, so they had a rematch to see. If JDS had won, there would have been no trilogy, and the "fluke" talk would have ended (see Rose vs. Joanna, TJ vs. Barao). However, Cain won decisively. After two fights, it seemed kind of clear that Cain was the better fighter and the first fight was a fluke. However, because JDS won the first fight, it was enough to warrant a third fight, which Cain won the same way he won the second fight. Domination and fluke verified.

2. Too young/too old
Example: Cruz vs. Faber. Cruz was very green when he fought Faber the first time. He hadn't really come into his own and developed the style that would carry him to being one of the best 135ers of all time. By the time they had their rematch 4 years later, Faber was already on the decline (though still extremely formidable). The third match was another 5 years later, and by then Cruz had been through several injuries, but still proved to be fresh and strong, and Faber had clearly declined by then.

3. Making the adjustment
Example: Chuck vs. Randy. In their first fight, Chuck underestimated Randy (especially his power in the clinch) in their first fight, and was gassed in grappling exchanges, eventually leading to being taken down, mounted, and TKO'd. In the rematch, there was controversy with the eye poke prior to the TKO, but it was clear that Chuck had made adjustments with keeping range and counter striking against Randy's aggression, which is what won him the third fight.

Do these things apply to Stipe vs. DC 3?

1. A "fluke" - The first fight's KO certainly had the feel of a fluke. Though the second fight didn't really do much to confirm the "fluke", as DC was holding his own in the second fight until the end. Still, there is still somewhat of a fluke feeling around the first fight, especially after Stipe's quick turnaround from fighting Francis Ngannou, and people speculating that his chin hadn't had ample time to recover. (I don't really understand the biology of all that, but whatever).

2. Too young/too old - Stipe certainly wasn't too young or green in their first fight. He had already established himself as a Heavyweight GOAT candidate. However, DC is fighting his final fight, and he is quite old with a lot of mileage on him. He took a LOT of damage in the second fight both to the head and the body. Though Stipe also got beat up pretty badly. I still see DC as fading in his career, and DC's age could be a major factor.

3. Making the adjustment - Interestingly, we saw the adjustment factor in during the fight. Stipe found DC's body which led to a fast and sharp decline in DC. That adjustment played a major role in Stipe's win. If DC has no answer for Stipe's body shots, it will be an ugly fight for DC.

I'm shocked that so many experts are picking DC to win the third fight. It could certainly happen, but all signs, in my mind, point to Stipe winning the trilogy.
Alvarez vs Chandler

Alvarez, Chandler, Alvarez

All title fights in Bellator
 
im obviously aware of that,
OP wasnt limited to UFC, and it seems weird to refer to only 3 fights if they fought 4 times.

A fourth fight is not relevant to this data.
 
Causation and correlation are not interchangeable. Welcome to data science 101.

It doesn’t matter; because I didn’t claim that fight 3 causes fight 2 winner to win again. If we find enough data for a correlation, we can speculate on the causation. That’s data science.
 
Hughes vs BJ.. BJ won, Hughes won, then BJ won again. Many more like so, espec in the older fights and other orgs.
 
Missed it. I searched for trilogies online for ones i couldn't remember, but they don't really include that one because it was kind of a dud. It's added now. Thanks.
"They don't really include that one because it was kind of a dud." If you needed to google, that says a lot right there and then saying it was a dud, tells me you are new, def less then a decade or two into the sport and haven't watched the fights you speak of.
 
Franie & Maynard applies..
Maynard won first fight when they both were new
Frankie became champ and went to draw with maynard- Frankie is considered the winner here cause he kept his belt
Third time fighting eachother- Frankie wins.

Maynard won TUF but he's done in the ufc. Frankie is still fighting top 10's.
 
Franie & Maynard applies..
Maynard won first fight when they both were new
Frankie became champ and went to draw with maynard- Frankie is considered the winner here cause he kept his belt
Third time fighting eachother- Frankie wins.

Maynard won TUF but he's done in the ufc. Frankie is still fighting top 10's.
That brings up an interesting point someone might be able to research. I’m pretty sure they never marketed that Gray Maynard draw as a “title defense” for Frankie Edgar. I don’t remember ever seeing that until the UFC marketed Woodley/WB draw as a title defense, and really I think they may have only done that at the end of his run to boost his number and make it look like he might be on an epic run.

It’s definitely not a win though for the TS purpose. I also doubt that people consider it a title defense. I don’t. I consider it unfinished business
 
As DC fan this doesnt sound very good

So he has like a 1 in 4 chance of taking out Stipe once again?

He is also:

on the wrong side of 40

has one foot out the door

looks to be fat, definitely packed on loads of weight in between his last fight

questionable motivation, doesn’t give Stipe credit for his improvements


Meanwhile Stipe looks to be very fit

Stipe seems hungry and determined

Stipe specifically said he intends to keep fighting and wants to reign as champ again

Stipe made the better adjustments in the rematch


Not a lot of reason to pick DC based on the info available.
 
He is also:

on the wrong side of 40

has one foot out the door

looks to be fat, definitely packed on loads of weight in between his last fight

questionable motivation, doesn’t give Stipe credit for his improvements


Meanwhile Stipe looks to be very fit

Stipe seems hungry and determined

Stipe specifically said he intends to keep fighting and wants to reign as champ again

Stipe made the better adjustments in the rematch


Not a lot of reason to pick DC based on the info available.

I agree with all of this. DC could certainly win as he's an all time great, but if I were a gambler, and the odds had it as a coinflip/DC as a slight favorite, I'd definitely put some money on Stipe.
 
"They don't really include that one because it was kind of a dud." If you needed to google, that says a lot right there and then saying it was a dud, tells me you are new, def less then a decade or two into the sport and haven't watched the fights you speak of.

It's been 14 years. I don't remember the fights all that well. I'm not a super early adapter, but I've been a fan since around TUF 1 and Chuck/Tito/Randy rivalries, and watched the previous PPVs online. I remember 1 was a good fight, 2 was a quick TKO, and Sylvia/Arlovski 3 was an absolute stinker with both guys too timid to engage.

EDIT: Yeah, here's the old sherdog play-by-play of the third fight:

https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/U...-Presented-by-Sprawl-Fight-Short-Company-4988

Round 3: The crowd grows restless as what once was a war has turned into a chess match.

Round 4: The fourth round ends to a chorus of boos as the fighters energy fades

Round 5: "Big" John McCarthy urges the fighters to get busy and don't let the judges decide the winner. The fights ends with a shower of jeers from the crowd
 
Just came here to say Morales won that 2nd fight with Barrera. Fuck the judges
 
Draws are not title defenses.

Edgar did progressively better in each Maynard fight (loss > draw > win) and he is also 3 years younger than Maynard. Coincidence? Maybe. Edgar was 29 for the second and third fights and in the lighter weight classes it seems a lot of guys lose a step or two in their early thirties.
 
That brings up an interesting point someone might be able to research. I’m pretty sure they never marketed that Gray Maynard draw as a “title defense” for Frankie Edgar. I don’t remember ever seeing that until the UFC marketed Woodley/WB draw as a title defense, and really I think they may have only done that at the end of his run to boost his number and make it look like he might be on an epic run.

It’s definitely not a win though for the TS purpose. I also doubt that people consider it a title defense. I don’t. I consider it unfinished business
He Didn’t lose his belt, and it was wrapped around his waist if I recall correctly. . So there’s that
 
The signs are all pointing to a Stipe win

Doesn't mean DC can't win, obviously
 
DC is gonna make this look easier than a lot of people think. His wrestling is clearly superior and using the game plan his corner wanted him to in the second fight, it’s going to be a wrap. DC has won the majority of their time in the cage and will dominate using his whole skill set. Also to mention he’s not going out on a loss for his retirement fight. Throw the house on DC. Stipe is gonna eat crow.
 
Chuck vs Tito. Chuck brutalised Tito in their primes twice then waited for chuck to be washed up to take his revenge.
 
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