Trilogy fights (1-1) favor the person who won the second fight.

most certainly was !!

Cains knee was fucked

and given this was the first live fox card

this is well known facts

JDS was injured as well. Both guys got surgery after the fight because both guys were injured going into it.
 
I've had a theory since I watched the Gatti vs. Ward trilogy (one of the greatest in boxing history), that the third fight generally favors the winner of the second fight in a 1-1 trilogy. I compiled a list of well known trilogies in MMA and Boxing to see if there's enough data for statistical evidence

MMA:
GSP vs. Hughes: Hughes, GSP, GSP
Cruz vs. Faber: Faber, Cruz, Cruz
Cain vs. JDS: JDS, Cain, Cain
Chuck vs. Randy: Randy, Chuck, Chuck

Penn vs. Hughes: Penn, Hughes, Penn
Forrest vs. Ortiz: Ortiz, Forrest, Forrest
Melendez vs. Thomson: Thomson, Melendez, Melendez

Stout vs. Fisher: Stout, Fisher, Stout
Bas vs. Frank: Frank, Bas, Bas
Sylvia vs. Arlovski: Arlovski, Sylvia, Sylvia

Total third fight record: Second fight winner 8 - First fight winner - 2

I'm sure I missed some 1-1 trilogies here, so let me know.

Boxing:
Gatti-Ward: Ward, Gatti, Gatti
Michael Carbajal-Humberto Gonzalez: Carbajal, Gonzalez, Gonzalez
Ali vs. Norton: Norton, Ali, Ali
Patterson vs. Johansson: Johansson, Patterson, Patterson

Griffith vs. Benny Paret - Griffith, Paret, Griffith (Paret died in the ring unfortunately)
Barney Ross vs. Jimmy McLarnin - Ross, Mclarnin, Ross
Barerra vs. Morales - Morales, Barerra, Barerra
Zale vs. Graziano - Zale, Graziano, Zale
Ali vs. Frazier - Frazier, Ali, Ali
Leonard vs. Duran - Duran, Leonard, Leonard
Duran vs. De Jesus - De Jesus, Duran, Duran

McLarnin vs. Ross - Ross, McLarnin, Ross
Pacquiao vs. Morales - Morales, Pac, Pac
Vasquez vs. Marquez - Marquez, Vasquez, Vasquez
Total third fight record: Second fight winner 10 - First fight winner - 4

Total: 18-6 75% wins for the winner of the second fight


Why is this the case? There are a few reasons.

1. A "fluke"
Example: JDS KO'd Cain in the first fight, and people were wondering if it was a fluke, so they had a rematch to see. If JDS had won, there would have been no trilogy, and the "fluke" talk would have ended. However, Cain won decisively. After two fights, it seemed kind of clear that Cain was the better fighter and the first fight was a fluke. However, because JDS won the first fight, it was enough to warrant a third fight, which Cain won the same way he won the second fight. Domination and fluke verified.

2. Too young/too old
Example: Cruz vs. Faber. Cruz was very green when he fought Faber the first time. He hadn't really come into his own and developed the style that would carry him to being one of the best 135ers of all time. By the time they had their rematch 4 years later, Faber was already on the decline (though still extremely formidable). The third match was another 5 years later, and by then Cruz had been through several injuries, but still proved to be fresh and strong, and Faber had clearly declined by then.

3. Making the adjustment
Example: Chuck vs. Randy. In their first fight, Chuck underestimated Randy (especially his power in the clinch) in their first fight, and was gassed in grappling exchanges, eventually leading to being taken down, mounted, and TKO'd. In the rematch, there was controversy with the eye poke prior to the TKO, but it was clear that Chuck had made adjustments with keeping range and counter striking against Randy's aggression, which is what won him the third fight.

Do these things apply to Stipe vs. DC 3?

1. A "fluke" - The first fight's KO certainly had the feel of a fluke. Though the second fight didn't really do much to confirm the "fluke", as DC was holding his own in the second fight until the end. Still, there is still somewhat of a fluke feeling around the first fight, especially after Stipe's quick turnaround from fighting Francis Ngannou, and people speculating that his chin hadn't had ample time to recover. (I don't really understand the biology of all that, but whatever).

2. Too young/too old - Stipe certainly wasn't too young or green in their first fight. He had already established himself as a Heavyweight GOAT candidate. However, DC is fighting his final fight, and he is quite old with a lot of mileage on him. He took a LOT of damage in the second fight both to the head and the body. Though Stipe also got beat up pretty badly. I still see DC as fading in his career, and DC's age could be a major factor.

3. Making the adjustment - Interestingly, we saw the adjustment factor in during the fight. Stipe found DC's body which led to a fast and sharp decline in DC. That adjustment played a major role in Stipe's win. If DC has no answer for Stipe's body shots, it will be an ugly fight for DC.

I'm shocked that so many experts are picking DC to win the third fight. It could certainly happen, but all signs, in my mind, point to Stipe winning the trilogy.

Lol at Dc "holding his own" in fight two. He dominated 95% of that fight.

When two fighters have fought 23 minutes and one guys won 22 of those minutes he deserves to be favored.
 
He won every round and in the third he landed slmost twice as many strikes. Thats beimg dominant.

I'm with you, I rewatched the fight the other day. DC took rounds 1-3. Stipe didn't take over the fight till the body shots part way into the 4th. He was smart to spam them over and over once he saw how much they affected DC.
 
Great thread!

You forgot Bowe/Holyfield which Bowe won the 1st and 3rd fights. But I tend to agree with you here.

I think that Stipe will beat DC again if his chin holds up.
 
A lot of it comes down to why trilogies get booked I'd say, its often to promote one fighter over another. If you have a series that is 1-1 but the favoured fighter won the second match looking clearly superior then a 3rd match is an easier sell.

FIghts like Cain/JDS 3, Chuck/Randy 3, Cruz/Faber 3 and GSP/Hughes 3 were all booked along those lines. Had the second fight been more competitive I think its less likely we would have seen a third because the UFC wanted to push the winner of the second match.
 
Great thread!

You forgot Bowe/Holyfield which Bowe won the 1st and 3rd fights. But I tend to agree with you here.

I didn't include that because the second fight was a NC due to Fan Man interruption.
 
Missed it. I searched for trilogies online for ones i couldn't remember, but they don't really include that one because it was kind of a dud. It's added now. Thanks.

Kind of a dud? What the fuck?

Their 1st fight lasted a minute. Fight 2 ended in like 4 min with Timmy getting dropped before getting up n stopping AA. Their 3rd fight was a snoozer for sure but both were just very cautious (for good reason). The trilogy wasn't a dud though and it was a trilogy that showcased the best HWs of that era in the UFC.

Was kind of an important trilogy.
 
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