If he beats Nate he will be only the 9th man to do it in Diaz's last 17 fights! I don't gamble...hell even if I wanted to I don't even know a sports betting platform which would accept my bet. But anything less than 20-1 odds would be unrealistic in my opinion. The Diaz brothers are textbook overrated and here is why... 1. They have a cult following related to their disobedience of rules and public love for Marijuana. You can bet quite a few low lives will go throw down some cash they can't afford to lose on their favorite homies. Skewing the odds and presenting arbitrage opportunities. 2. They have an approach to fighting that a lot of people find stylistically pleasing (not me). The just bang, taunt and talk attitude they seem to have fostered means yet again that a few more fanboys will go and place a bet. 3. They run triathlons and swim long distances. I regularly see people reference this when talking about the Diaz brothers fighting prowess. The reality is that, although I commend the Diaz brothers for their interesting hobbies, the translation of this sort of training to fighting isn't significant. If being able to swim long distances and run long distances was a major influence on the game you would see more athletes training that way. The reality is that Diaz brothers have sealed their fate as journeymen fighters by training this way. Spending time developing cardio and slow twitch muscle fibers have left them both with unexplosive strikes and subpar strength. 4. They both have some controversial losses that their fanboys cling to and consider victories. Whenever the Diaz brothers realize they are going to lose they are clever...unlike other fighters that will go for broke and attempt to win by any means necessary, the Diaz Bros will complain verbally, taunt, laydown, middle finger etc...they stand behind the defense that they won under their own ruleset, the manly ruleset. Many of their fans forget that they still lost those fights, and so they will be more inclined to bet for them further skewing the odds. 5. People forget that neither Diaz will go for broke in order to win because that reality is in stark contrast to what each fighter claims and how they are marketed. Lastly...in regards to Nate * Nate is over-rated because people associate with him with his brother, who was frankly a much better fighter. I respect the hell out of Nate and Nick and although I find their plodding style aesthetically unpleasing I respect its efficiency in a number of matchups. However, this isn't one of them. Conor will eat Nate alive and he knows it. I am disappointed in Conor for pursuing this fight. Conor is a really relevant fighter at the moment and a Nate fight is pointless. I won't pay for this PPV because its just a money grab. I want to see the best fight the best. The UFC and Conor should have arranged to have a more suitable backup training in case this went down.