Theory: Putin to cause unrest in Ukraine to bolster oil prices

[Truebeliever]

I've been thinking about this for some time, and the more i think about it the more i think this is a real possibility. We all know the Russia economy is very dependent on crude exports for revenue.

As of 2012 oil and gas sector accounted for 16% of the*GDP, 52% of federal budget revenues and over 70% of total exports.

With crude down 50% in the last 6 months and Russia's economy slowing to the point of near recession, i find it at least probable Russia stirs tensions to bolster crude prices.

What we do know is that Russia is not afraid of consequences from the west, and with Europe's struggling economy they aren't likely to up the severity of sanctions.

That's my "bold" prediction for 2015, but if you think about it, it seems quite plausible. Especially with a man like Putin at the helm

 

[PabloZed]

I don't understand. How does causing unrest in Ukraine cause oil to spike? Ukraine is not a net oil and gas producer. And the Ukraine economy is already a wreck.

 

[Ayin]

Um... Maybe you didn't see the headlines, but Russia has been causing 'unrest' in Ukraine for some time now. Before the current big drop in oil prices began, I believe.

 

[liljoe]

he could try and I wouldnt be surprised at all. as long as OPEC and the US and others are at full production, his attempts will fail.

 

[Videer]

That is one stupid theory, if anything it makes the price go down.

 

[LatFlare]

The Euromaidan protest began in Nov 2013 and reached climax in Feb '14 when Yanukovich fled. Crimea was annexed in March. Through this period of unrest you can see that crude prices were fairly static.

Oil prices start to nosedive around June 20, which coincidentally happens to be around the same time that Putin was stacking troops on the border. So if Putin is trying to pump oil prices by destabilising the Ukraine it looks like its been an epic backfire, or maybe your theory is wrong.

Its more plausible that Putin is opposing NATO expansionism, as with Georgia and Belarus, and is willing to cop whatever sanctions and punishment the west can dole out for the sake of the strategic benefit of not having NATO/EU on his doorstep.

 

[Ayin]

Thread over?

 

[Johntreksmith]

It's because of the ukrainian revolution that overthrew the president who was pro russian. he was about to sign a treaty with the eu then after the russians told him to back off he signed with the russians.

people got angry and unrest happened. northern and southern ukraine are different culturally. the south and south eastern part is mainly russian because of the the starving holocaust the russian government sent russian settlers to repopulate. the norther part is more true ukrainian. look at a map of it and it's pretty clear.

crimea is a important port to the russians because it gives them access tot he black sea and the med meaning syria and the iran. in treaties that started being signed in the late nineties russian keeps it's fleets there at a base. the new president of the the ukraine was possibly going to throw it out and kick the russians out.

so russia intervened took the base back, annexed the southern parts and what they couldn't annex they started brush fires in.

 

[LC Shepard]

Can you provide a theory on how instability in Ukraine has an impact on oil prices of any significance?

If anything it's an attempt to find an enemy for the population to hate on instead of focusing on the Russian ecomy going down the drain.

 

[AlucardNatasrd]

I recently read an article that suggested that the price of oil is more likely to hurt the United States in a long urn by diminishing jobs in oil/gas which work as a net producer of 2.79 jobs per job in those sectors. They also are some of the few high-wage jobs created, which now won't be created as everything is so cheap there's no economic incentive to expand the work force and to continue with more expensive technologies.

 

[Cirris]

The more plausible theory is that Saudis aren't stabilizing Oil price drop at the behest of the US to facilitate the wreckage of Russia's energy dependent economy.

The Saudis would also benefit with the slacking Oil markets by destabilizing the more costly extraction methods like Shale and sand oil production that the US and Canada are engaging in.

 

[Rusk]

people got angry and unrest happened. northern and southern ukraine are different culturally. the south and south eastern part is mainly russian because of the the starving holocaust the russian government sent russian settlers to repopulate. the norther part is more true ukrainian. look at a map of it and it's pretty clear.

True ukranians??? Define a true Ukrainian... You do know that Ukrainians and southern Russian are absolutely genetically identical? And when did this repopulation happened?

and its not southern and northern, but Western and Eastern... damn man where did you get you information from?

 

[MicroBrew]

Oil is down now because the Saudis and fellow GCC Arabs are pumping out a lot , so as to keep oil prices down. How does unrest in Ukraine effect the Saudis and other GCC countries?