The x factor against Volkanovski tonight...

[Ahmed Masood]

If both guys come in at their absolute best, I would favour the champ to defend his belt. However, there are two x factors affecting Volks ability to reach his physical best.

1) The long lay off. Its the longest lay off of Volks career and we do not know how such a lay off may affect his performance in regards to ring rust. Ortega (whilst not having fought in the last 11 months) may actually have a little less ring rust compared to the champ.

2) More importantly, Volkanovski had a really bad bout of Covid whereby he was unable to reach his full potential in the early half of his training camp.
https://www.mmamania.com/2021/5/30/...ining-i-dont-know-if-its-because-of-the-covid
We saw Covid or at least lasting effects of it probably impacted his training, and we have seen how a bad bout of covid has potentially impacted a fighter in a UFC fight. When garbrandt fought font, it seemed he was more rusty and less active than he usually has appeared in the past, probably a side effect of having a bad bout of Covid IMO. I know other fighters have tested positive with covid but few experienced symptoms like Volk and Garbrandt.

With these two x factors, i won't be surprised if Ortega beats Volkanovski tonight. What do you think Sherbros?

 

[Jonatan]

Good analysis, I would also say that the keeping vs wining the belt is a thing in close match-ups. The positive for Alex is that it is a good match-up stylistically for him.

 

[SKITZADACTYL]

if the covid and lay off didnt affect volk then this is a pretty easy fight for him tbh, hopefully hes still in top form.

 

[Azure]

Don't care for either guy but like Volk a little better.. Something about Ortega rubs me the wrong way but I don't know exactly what it is.

 

[Qays Stetkevich]

I could totally see someone who had a bad Covid case having trouble with endurance in the 4th and 5th. I really, really hope that isn't the case with Volks.

 

[fortheo]

I think the fact that he hasn't been able to train at Tiger Muy thai or CKB in nearly two years is a bigger factor. I think Volk's got this, though.

 

[TempleoftheDog]

The Covid is a concern, and a question mark. But, I’m leaning towards the fact if he wasn’t 100% he probably would have found a way to postpone this fight. So, I’m not overly concerned. But, there’s only one way to find out.

 

[Druken_Vovchanchyn]

if the fight makes it 5 rounds then ortega wont be able to walk..people are not thinking clearly lol...volk is about to abuse this guys leg

 

[Dos-Catorce]

Volk getting headkicked do to his size. It's his stature that'll be his downfall. But I expect he'll blame the lockdown in NZ. Same excuse for Hooker.

 

[Gamer007]

Ortega is going to get rocked.

 

[Horriblehim]

Ortega might be able to bully him in the clinch and throw on a guillotine

 

[Satan's Daddy.]

Volk wins because of the added pressure of Max's performance against Ortega.

 

[Kwic]

It also depends if we are going to see normal sized balls Ortega or huge balls Ortega. Huge balls Ortega is undefeated.

 

[Mmmmmmma1234]

I like how your 2 x factors have nothing to do with ortega already discredited his potential upset.

The real x factors are HOW improved is ortega on the feet. Can he keep it competitive there or even best volk?
And can ortega use his superior BJJ to catch Volkanovski in a submission.

 

[GordoBarraBJJ]

So in other words if Ortega wins the excuses are set?

 

[TRYHARD 2001]

I like how your 2 x factors have nothing to do with ortega already discredited his potential upset.

The real x factors are HOW improved is ortega on the feet. Can he keep it competitive there or even best volk?
And can ortega use his superior BJJ to catch Volkanovski in a submission.

He kicked the crap out of KZ his last time out and was the first person to finish Frankie. His standup has always been good to go, he just had the intense misfortune of fighting Max Holloway. How well his standup matches up with Volk's standup style remains to be seen, but if and when Volk decides to take this one down it's going to the mat; Ortega doesn't have a say in that one, really. What happens next is anyone's guess, but I think Volk's fundamentals, pressure and ridiculously strong base should nullify T-City's submission attempts.

It's extremely hard to hit a triangle on a fire hydrant.

 

[Mmmmmmma1234]

He kicked the crap out of KZ his last time out and was the first person to finish Frankie. His standup has always been good to go, he just had the intense misfortune of fighting Max Holloway. How well his standup matches up with Volk's standup style remains to be seen, but if and when Volk decides to take this one down it's going to the mat; Ortega doesn't have a say in that one, really. What happens next is anyone's guess, but I think Volk's fundamentals, pressure and ridiculously strong base should nullify T-City's submission attempts.

It's extremely hard to hit a triangle on a fire hydrant.

Landing 1 strike vs frankie doesn't make his "striking always good to go" it was not just max who beat him standing, Moicano was beating him up standing, cub, Guida, Tavares all gave him trouble there.

And the KZ fight is the proof he's changed since the max fight, not the opposite.

 

[Doughie99]

If both guys come in at their absolute best, I would favour the champ to defend his belt. However, there are two x factors affecting Volks ability to reach his physical best.

1) The long lay off. Its the longest lay off of Volks career and we do not know how such a lay off may affect his performance in regards to ring rust. Ortega (whilst not having fought in the last 11 months) may actually have a little less ring rust compared to the champ.

Don't really agree.
In the years 2019/2020/2021 :
Volka has had THREE fights (all big title fights against legends, won them all)
Ortega has has ONE fight (against Korean Zombie)

The COVID thing : that's a reasonable point but Volka is such a pro I do not believe he would be stepping into the cage to defend his belt if he felt still affected by COVID / lungs etc. The man is technical, he has a good scientific team, he's probably had his lung function checked endlessly, I really don't think it's an issue.

If anyone is going to start fading after 3 or 4 hard rounds.....it's gonna be Brian Ortega. I just don't think he has the cardio endurance to LAST at the pace Volkanovski will put on him. It'll be intense and I think Ortega will wilt.

 

[Bob Sapp]

I hope Volkswagonovsky KOs Ortega.

 

[Pataliputra]

Don't care for either guy but like Volk a little better.. Something about Ortega rubs me the wrong way but I don't know exactly what it is.

i think it's because he's really fake