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I'm good with that.@Andy Capp ^ the tag didn’t work
I'm good with that.@Andy Capp ^ the tag didn’t work
#59. @Oceanmachine v. @MMAisGod
1. Trump will win the 2020 presidential election with at least 2 out of 3 of the following states: Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota
2. @Oceanmachine - for @MMAisGod - against
3. 11/3/2020 (tentatively)
4. Avatar bet
5. 3 months
Winner: MMAisGod
Was the Weekend At Bernie's thing about Biden dying or getting sick? If so, I can't bet on that because I agree. Dude could drop any day. But if we're talking about any other reason, then we have a bet.Ah alright, sure. Let's do it. Jan 20th to Jan 20th
Im talking any reason. My guess is his health will deteriorate very fast.Was the Weekend At Bernie's thing about Biden dying or getting sick? If so, I can't bet on that because I agree. Dude could drop any day. But if we're talking about any other reason, then we have a bet.
Gotcha. Well, we agree on his health being in the shitter, so that's a no go for me. But if you still think he fails to hold office for any other reason, then I'm down.Im talking any reason. My guess is his health will deteriorate very fast.
What would be other reason?Gotcha. Well, we agree on his health being in the shitter, so that's a no go for me. But if you still think he fails to hold office for any other reason, then I'm down.
Im talking any reason. My guess is his health will deteriorate very fast.
Yes.If you're betting that he won't last a year in office, I'll take that action if Pete won't.
Yes.
Yeah, have at it. I don't trust myself not to jinx Biden into a heart attack. Plus betting on someone's health just aint my jam.OK. Three-month sig? If Biden's out for any reason.
Yeah, let's do it.OK. Three-month sig? If Biden's out for any reason.
@Lead, is this recorded?
Same case as that other bet. There is a hold on any new bets that happen after the inauguration. I will update you as soon as they are available again so you can get those two booked here if you still want them.
This isn’t to say you and TheScorpion haven’t reached an agreement at this point. It just isn’t currently being logged until further notice.
As an incredibly unlucky bettor my entire life, I just can't risk it.@The ScorpioN, we're on if you want to do one last confirmation. And then we'll record it for the thread after the inauguration.
@Limbo Pete, I don't believe in jinxes, but I also see this as a bet against dumb political propaganda, which is kind of my thing.
As an incredibly unlucky bettor my entire life, I just can't risk it.
Oh i'd put Biden's chances at more like 99.9%. But then again, I once rolled five 1s in a row playing Dungeons and Dragons, which is a breathtaking failure of the odds to help me.I've been lucky with these. I think seven of my 11 wins were basically guarantees. The bet with wai was one where I just trusted Silver's 75% estimate over wai's lock the other way estimate. I actually think Viva's point was correct but he overstated it. I had about a 90% chance against Heretic (remember, though with 11 bets, if all of them were that likely, I'd expect a loss). I think the bet with MMAisGod was a lock that I wouldn't lose, but I didn't even expect to win. I'd put Biden's chances at lasting a year at over 95%. We should have an annual prediction thread.
Oh i'd put Biden's chances at more like 99.9%. But then again, I once rolled five 1s in a row playing Dungeons and Dragons, which is a breathtaking failure of the odds to help me.
My inability to ever succeed at anything involving dice, cards, or games of chance in general, is legendary in my familyI feel comfortable at over 95%, but I don't think *that much* over. And wow.