Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V6: Place midterm wagers now

Best bet(s) settled in the last bet thread (see closed bets section in post 3)

  • Bet 26 HereticBD v. VivaRevolution

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bet 52 Jack V Savage v. giusti825

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bet 41 Serenity Now v. Yorkist (ObamaPhoneLady)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bet 49 Prokofievian v. Richie Madano

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bet 56 Jack V Savage v. Tropodan

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bet 47 sickc0d3r v. HereticBD

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    8
Status
Not open for further replies.
Ah alright, sure. Let's do it. Jan 20th to Jan 20th
Was the Weekend At Bernie's thing about Biden dying or getting sick? If so, I can't bet on that because I agree. Dude could drop any day. But if we're talking about any other reason, then we have a bet.
 
Was the Weekend At Bernie's thing about Biden dying or getting sick? If so, I can't bet on that because I agree. Dude could drop any day. But if we're talking about any other reason, then we have a bet.
Im talking any reason. My guess is his health will deteriorate very fast.
 
Im talking any reason. My guess is his health will deteriorate very fast.
Gotcha. Well, we agree on his health being in the shitter, so that's a no go for me. But if you still think he fails to hold office for any other reason, then I'm down.
 
Gotcha. Well, we agree on his health being in the shitter, so that's a no go for me. But if you still think he fails to hold office for any other reason, then I'm down.
What would be other reason?
 
@Lead, is this recorded?

Same case as that other bet. There is a hold on any new bets that happen after the inauguration. I will update you as soon as they are available again so you can get those two booked here if you still want them.

This isn’t to say you and TheScorpion haven’t reached an agreement at this point. It just isn’t currently being logged until further notice.
 
Same case as that other bet. There is a hold on any new bets that happen after the inauguration. I will update you as soon as they are available again so you can get those two booked here if you still want them.

This isn’t to say you and TheScorpion haven’t reached an agreement at this point. It just isn’t currently being logged until further notice.

@The ScorpioN, we're on if you want to do one last confirmation. And then we'll record it for the thread after the inauguration.

@Limbo Pete, I don't believe in jinxes, but I also see this as a bet against dumb political propaganda, which is kind of my thing.
 
@The ScorpioN, we're on if you want to do one last confirmation. And then we'll record it for the thread after the inauguration.

@Limbo Pete, I don't believe in jinxes, but I also see this as a bet against dumb political propaganda, which is kind of my thing.
As an incredibly unlucky bettor my entire life, I just can't risk it.
 
As an incredibly unlucky bettor my entire life, I just can't risk it.

I've been lucky with these. I think seven of my 11 wins were basically guarantees. The bet with wai was one where I just trusted Silver's 75% estimate over wai's lock the other way estimate. I actually think Viva's point was correct but he overstated it. I had about a 90% chance against Heretic (remember, though with 11 bets, if all of them were that likely, I'd expect a loss). I think the bet with MMAisGod was a lock that I wouldn't lose, but I didn't even expect to win. I'd put Biden's chances at lasting a year at over 95%. We should have an annual prediction thread.
 
I've been lucky with these. I think seven of my 11 wins were basically guarantees. The bet with wai was one where I just trusted Silver's 75% estimate over wai's lock the other way estimate. I actually think Viva's point was correct but he overstated it. I had about a 90% chance against Heretic (remember, though with 11 bets, if all of them were that likely, I'd expect a loss). I think the bet with MMAisGod was a lock that I wouldn't lose, but I didn't even expect to win. I'd put Biden's chances at lasting a year at over 95%. We should have an annual prediction thread.
Oh i'd put Biden's chances at more like 99.9%. But then again, I once rolled five 1s in a row playing Dungeons and Dragons, which is a breathtaking failure of the odds to help me.
 
Oh i'd put Biden's chances at more like 99.9%. But then again, I once rolled five 1s in a row playing Dungeons and Dragons, which is a breathtaking failure of the odds to help me.

I feel comfortable at over 95%, but I don't think *that much* over. And wow.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Replies
734
Views
30K

Forum statistics

Threads
1,234,841
Messages
55,311,599
Members
174,734
Latest member
Bob Gnuheart
Back
Top