The problem with TDD as a % (references Khabib vs Conor)

[808nEffect]

Debate around the Conor vs Khabib matchup has revealed to me that TDD as % is an unreliable stat when attempting to determine a fighter's propensity to be taken down.

The reason for this is that it doesn't factor in a fighter's ability to control the distance and prevent an opponent from even attempting a takedown. Good strikers often cause good grapplers to be more cautious in their TD attempts to avoid the risk of incurring damage from strikes.

A significantly more useful stat is takedowns allowed per minute. This number uses a fighter's minutes competed and total times taken down to create a stat that shows TD allowed per minute. It captures a fighter's ability to fend off attempted takedowns AND avoid takedown attempts.

Using data from Khabib's UFC opponents, you can see that Conor's TDAPM is better than all but four of Khabib's opponents. If you throw out the Mendes fight (given Conor's knee issues) Conor's ability to avoid the taken is better than all but one of Khabib's opponents.

If my thesis is accurate, you'll see Khabib struggle to secure takedowns on Conor when they fight. I'd love to see data presented on other fighters so please feel free to do some research and share.

The heralded grappling wizard Dennis Siver took Conor down...

 

[helltoupee]

That point is moot, because Conor doesn't fight that way. He didn't even do so effectively against Chad. He could've been cleaner without having to sacrifice his striking. He just largely didn't care.

Having Chad on top of you vs Khabib are two different worlds.

You'd have to be crazy to think that Conor won't be more conservative in his striking out of respect for Khabib's brutal ground game.

 

[helltoupee]

<45>

This has to be a Notorious millions or Prologic alt.

It's not prologic/boxingislife/skillstopaythebills. He always types in the double-spaced one liner format, and I don't think I've ever seen him start a thread without gifs.

 

[VegetaGD]

If Conor had a legitimate knee injury he wouldn't have been able to walk properly

Treating an ACL tear with physical therapy alone is worth considering if it's a partial tear or if the person isn't very active. Adults who are active but do "in-line" sports such as cycling or running might also do well with just physical therapy because those sports don't usually involve turning and twisting the knee.

Source - www.health.harvard.edu/newsletter_article/youve-torn-your-acl-now-what

You can walk properly with a partially torn ACL.

 

[GalegodoVeneno]

The heralded grappling wizard Dennis Siver took Conor down...

That is true, but you and i could have taken conor down that day(maybe not), he was super agressive, going foward disregarding his oponent at all... Is easier to defend take down with a solid base, Conor was all offence that day, literally 0 care for any defense. Game plan changes, solid base and footwork do Wonders for takedown defense. That day Conor barely have his feet on the ground he was flying at Siver, that shit was a big mismatch.

 

[VegetaGD]

It's not prologic/boxingislife/skillstopaythebills. He always types in the double-spaced one liner format, and I don't think I've ever seen him start a thread without gifs.

And a 16 year Sherdog vet. Would be mighty strange for PROlogic (join date November 5, 2017) or NotoriousMillions (join date August 7, 2016) to open their alt account 15 years before their primary handle. Just take a moment and consider this.

 

[GalegodoVeneno]

That wasn't an acl, Conor didn't do surgery after the fight, because that would need 6 months of rehab (minimum), it was probably lcl, mcl or a minor meniscus injury. He fought 5 months later.

 

[Diunx]

You can walk properly with a partially torn ACL.

read your own quote dude, I'm no fighter but I'm pretty sure there's some knee turning and twisting during training camp

 

[bigconan]

Conor got taken down multiple times by 5'6, 2 week notice Chad Mendes......
He now has to defend takedowns against 5'10, full camp Khabib, who is undefeated and has dominated all of his opponents.....

Against a guy on an injured knee.

 

[GalegodoVeneno]

You can walk properly with a partially torn ACL.

That wasn't an acl, Conor didn't do surgery after the fight, because that would need 6 months of rehab (minimum), it was probably lcl, mcl or a minor meniscus injury. He fought 5 months later.
MCL and LCL respond great to rehab so probably one of those 2.

 

[VegetaGD]

read your own quote dude, I'm no fighter but I'm pretty sure there's some knee turning and twisting during training camp

You were the one who used walking as a way to assess whether one has a torn ACL or not. What am I missing?

 

[bigconan]

Conor was taken down my out of shape mini mendez, stop it Mcnuthuggers.

You mean that fight where conor ko'd mendes in UNDER 2 rounds...that fight??

 

[Diunx]

You were the one who used walking as a way to assess whether one has a torn ACL or not. What am I missing?

Your own quote says that physical therapy only works for non active persons, Conor was in a fucking training camp, you can't get more active than that.

 

[helltoupee]

And a 16 year Sherdog vet. Would be mighty strange for PROlogic (join date November 5, 2017) or NotoriousMillions (join date August 7, 2016) to open their alt account 15 years before their primary handle. Just take a moment and consider this.

Am not sure what you want me to consider. I was saying that I didn't see any similarities between your style and Prologic's.

 

[Diunx]

You mean that fight where conor ko'd mendes in UNDER 2 rounds...that fight??

Yeah the fight were he was taken down at will by a man half his size until said man gas out because he didn't have a training camp.

 

[bigconan]

If Conor had a legitimate knee injury he wouldn't have been able to walk properly, also like I'm sure you have heard many times, no fighter steps into the octagon 100% healthy.

His knee injury has been confirmed by multiple people...and why lie, when you won the fight..so that makes testimony very believable...

 

[Diunx]

His knee injury has been confirmed by multiple people...and why lie, when you won the fight..so that makes testimony very believable...

By multiple people you mean his filming crew or his trainers? He was bouncing around the octagon just fine.

 

[PROlogic]

It's not prologic. He always types in the double-spaced one liner format, and I don't think I've ever seen him start a thread without gifs.

Hahaha that use to be true my friend: )

Sadly that's not the case anymore. It was becoming to repetitive to go over hours of footage to make gifs for my breakdowns

That's why I mostly stick to fighters who I know ..and also why I pick and choose to only focus on truly skilled fighters who I genuinely enjoy breaking down

I no longer wanted to waste my time analyzing a whole fighters career, noting all his habbits/patterns, downloading hours of footage and then taking more to gif everything.

Especially when I'm not getting paid for it. It's just a hobby...and especially when that fighter I was studying was not skilled enough to hold my attention

I also no longer have the software

But I do still have a large collection of gifs that I built up

I have a whole post fight breakdown for Tony vs RDA that Ive been wanting to drop

But since that fight happened so long ago, I dont think people would really care

I have a lot of gifs right now from that fight lol

I took the time to study Tony and RDA because they were/are future Conor opponents

So I know Tony very well...all his patterns that could/would be exploited by Conor...and all the things he does well etc


Anyway, Mysterio truly is one of the worst sherdog posters I've ever seen in my life. And I have proof that he has multiple accounts. Just ignore him.

Cheers my brother: ) Good reasonable posts in this thread btw!

 

[WhitestKidU’Know]

Que all the angry little Conor haters trying to deny scientific data.

Whether or not something is scientific data doesn’t make it automatically true. Scientific data is collected to try and prove(or disprove) a hypothesis. In fact most scientific data has turned out to complete bull crap.

 

[PROlogic]

Also @helltoupee I don't know if you caught my edit, but I wanted to tell you...good reasonable posts in this thread....

I wish we could have more genuine honest debate about this fight. Great thread OP

Khabib and Conor are both amazing and it's a fascinating matchup where Conor could legitimately end up being a bad matchup for Khabib

Yet instead sherdog is nothing but Conor haters/Khabib fanboys spamming the forums about how Conor sucks and stands no chance

You are one of the few Khabib fans I respect

If I were you, I would hate that people like Mysterio are representing you