The problem with TDD as a % (references Khabib vs Conor)

[VegetaGD]

Debate around the Conor vs Khabib matchup has revealed to me that TDD as % is an unreliable stat when attempting to determine a fighter's propensity to be taken down.

The reason for this is that it doesn't factor in a fighter's ability to control the distance and prevent an opponent from even attempting a takedown. Good strikers often cause good grapplers to be more cautious in their TD attempts to avoid the risk of incurring damage from strikes.

A significantly more useful stat is takedowns allowed per minute. This number uses a fighter's minutes competed and total times taken down to create a stat that shows TD allowed per minute. It captures a fighter's ability to fend off attempted takedowns AND avoid takedown attempts.

Using data from Khabib's UFC opponents, you can see that Conor's TDAPM is better than all but four of Khabib's opponents. If you throw out the Mendes fight (given Conor's knee issues) Conor's ability to avoid the taken is better than all but one of Khabib's opponents.

If my thesis is accurate, you'll see Khabib struggle to secure takedowns on Conor when they fight. I'd love to see data presented on other fighters so please feel free to do some research and share.

 

[ThatGuy7698]

Conor got taken down multiple times by 5'6, 2 week notice Chad Mendes......
He now has to defend takedowns against 5'10, full camp Khabib, who is undefeated and has dominated all of his opponents.....

 

[SuperNerd]

Good effort to pull something out of MMA stats. It's hard to pretend all TDs are equal.

Interesting view either way. I won't be shocked if Conor manages to stuff a few TDs, and even has a few good scrambles to his feet.

 

[Diunx]

Conor was taken down my out of shape mini mendez, stop it Mcnuthuggers.

 

[VegetaGD]

Good effort to pull something out of MMA stats. It's hard to pretend all TDs are equal.

Interesting view either way. I won't be shocked if Conor manages to stuff a few TDs, and even has a few good scrambles to his feet.

Our sport is very young. Stats will change. This isn't just about Conor vs Khabib, but all of MMA. Yes, this fight, with its bright spotlight and clash of styles prompted me to ponder why TDD is a bad way at looking at a fighter's ability to avoid the takedown.

 

[Mysterio]

Just stop with this bullshit.
Here is a stat for you.

Khabib's wrestling is about 97/100

and Conor's is about 23/100

and that's being generous.

Conor could train wrestling for the next 10 years and Khabib would still ragdoll him.

Conor fought 1 FW wrestler in his entire career so his shitty wrestling stats are actually worse than they appear on paper, because you are comparing him to guys who fought a higher % of their fights in higher weight-classes and didn't spend their careers avoiding wrestlers.

 

[LouisBolanos]

Maths is for nerds and nerds need to be bashed.

 

[Pequeño Corey]

Doesn’t work because it favors guys with more ring time. The current system is fine.

Nice attempt to hype up Conor’s chances though.

 

[VegetaGD]

Conor was taken down my out of shape mini mendez, stop it Mcnuthuggers.

I'll play along. Perhaps Mendes wasn't at his best with a short camp.

Your turn. Do you think Conor had a legitimate knee injury? Do you think this might have impacted his ability to avoid Mendes' grappling offense?

 

[helltoupee]

Good strikers often cause good grapplers to be more cautious in their TD attempts to avoid the risk of incurring damage from strikes.

I think in general you make some good points, however, as to the above, this dynamic works both ways.

Good grapplers also cause good strikers to be more tentative in their strikes, so as to avoid the TD. Using distance management kicks, as Conor does, especially the way he throws them from a karate stance, could be problematic in making him vulnerable to the TD as well. It's kind of a dog chasing it's tail argument.

EDIT: I will say that I think someone who has been good at it for a long time, such as Aldo, will be more willing to open up, because it's more programmed into his muscle memory.

In Conor's case, he's gotta be drilling TDD heavily in this camp, and sometimes that can play on you when you are in the fight. It's still kind of new, so it makes you think about it more, which is bad when it's a sport based on split second reactions.

 

[NotoriousMillions]

Debate around the Conor vs Khabib matchup has revealed to me that TDD as % is an unreliable stat when attempting to determine a fighter's propensity to be taken down.

The reason for this is that it doesn't factor in a fighter's ability to control the distance and prevent an opponent from even attempting a takedown. Good strikers often cause good grapplers to be more cautious in their TD attempts to avoid the risk of incurring damage from strikes.

A significantly more useful stat is takedowns allowed per minute. This number uses a fighter's minutes competed and total times taken down to create a stat that shows TD allowed per minute. It captures a fighter's ability to fend off attempted takedowns AND avoid takedown attempts.

Using data from Khabib's UFC opponents, you can see that Conor's TDAPM is better than all but four of Khabib's opponents. If you throw out the Mendes fight (given Conor's knee issues) Conor's ability to avoid the taken is better than all but one of Khabib's opponents.

If my thesis is accurate, you'll see Khabib struggle to secure takedowns on Conor when they fight. I'd love to see data presented on other fighters so please feel free to do some research and share.

Que all the angry little Conor haters trying to deny scientific data.

 

[EndlessCritic]

If this wasn't immediately evident to you, you might be a moron.

What is a takedown attempt? Nobody knows.

 

[VegetaGD]

I think in general you make some good points, however, as to the above, this dynamic works both ways.

Good grapplers also cause good strikers to be more tentative in their strikes, so as to avoid the TD. Using distance management kicks, as Conor does, especially the way he throws them from a karate stance, could be problematic in making him vulnerable to the TD as well. It's kind of a dog chasing it's tail argument.

I agree with this. MMA is a complex sport and conclusions around a fight can't be gathered around a single stat. That said, some stats are better than others. If you knock someone out in the first round, you greatly reduce their chance of taking you down in the second ;o)

 

[flowoftruth]

the real question is : will conor be able to make it through this thing alive?. this time he is facing a normal sized human being... and he's been known to have problems with those in the past

 

[helltoupee]

I agree with this. MMA is a complex sport and conclusions around a fight can't be gathered around a single stat. That said, some stats are better than others. If you knock someone out in the first round, you greatly reduce their chance of taking you down in the second ;o)

I also added an edit above, which I think plays an important part in a fight like this.

No doubt, I think your OP is a great stat to use when analyzing things. Don't get me wrong, while I'm heavily favoring Khabib in this fight, I would not be surprised in the least to see him get KO'd. Conor has proven me wrong many times before.

 

[NotoriousMillions]

I think in general you make some good points, however, as to the above, this dynamic works both ways.

Good grapplers also cause good strikers to be more tentative in their strikes, so as to avoid the TD. Using distance management kicks, as Conor does, especially the way he throws them from a karate stance, could be problematic in making him vulnerable to the TD as well. It's kind of a dog chasing it's tail argument.

That point is moot, because Conor doesn't fight that way. He didn't even do so effectively against Chad. He could've been cleaner without having to sacrifice his striking. He just largely didn't care.

 

[VegetaGD]

Just stop with this bullshit.
Here is a stat for you.

Khabib's wrestling is about 97/100

and Conor's is about 23/100

Conor could train wrestling for the next 10 years and Khabib would ragdoll him.

Conor fought 1 wrestler in his entire career so his shitty wrestling stats are actually worse than they appear on paper.

4 references to wrestling in your post and 0 to MMA. This is why your perspective is fatally flawed. If Khabib was a great wrestler, he'd be an accomplished wrestler. Yet here we are. He has no wrestling accomplishments. He's one of the best grapplers in the history of MMA, but let me emphasize that this is MMA where people's skulls are subjected to concussive forces that separate them from their consciousness. This is why Khabib will lose to Conor and why your active month on Sherdog will come to an end.

 

[Diunx]

I'll play along. Perhaps Mendes wasn't at his best with a short camp.

Your turn. Do you think Conor had a legitimate knee injury? Do you think this might have impacted his ability to avoid Mendes' grappling offense?

If Conor had a legitimate knee injury he wouldn't have been able to walk properly, also like I'm sure you have heard many times, no fighter steps into the octagon 100% healthy.

 

[Kael Rills]

I guarantee you that Khabib will take Conor down if he doesn't get Aldo'd. The early second round will be Conor's last chance to KO Khabib. I imagine Conor will have around 1.5 mins total to KO Khabib in the first two rounds and Khabib's chin is great. Conor has a mountain to climb.

 

[Mysterio]

4 references to wrestling in your post and 0 to MMA. This is why your perspective is fatally flawed. If Khabib was a great wrestler, he'd be an accomplished wrestler. Yet here we are. He has no wrestling accomplishments. He's one of if not the best grapplers in the history of MMA, but let me emphasize that this is MMA where people's skulls are subjected to concussive forces that separate them from their consciousness. This is why Khabib will lose to Conor and why your active month on Sherdog will come to an end.

<45>

This has to be a Notorious millions or Prologic alt.

Nobody else on this forum is even stupid enough to try and put Conor's wrestling against the best in the UFC's.

The only time Conor faced a high level wrestler in his career was at FW where he was taken down 4 times in two rounds and controlled and smashed on the ground for nearly 4 straight minutes in the second round.

Spent 6 out of less than 10 minutes on his ass helpless on his back.

The only time Conor faced someone even close to Khabib's size, Nate Diaz, who is known as a weak wrestler, he was stopped in the first contest and won a razor close decision in the second landing with Diaz landing a staggering 252 strikes to McGregor's 197, he was also taken down.