The One Landed Punch in MMA is resulting in too many upsets, Luck is playing too big a factor

[ticho123]

All fighters mentioned are experienced and have been around for years.

And in the case with Rockhold an Werdum, they both made serious mistakes which allowed the ko to happen

 

[legkicktko]

Yes i know if you intend to throw a punch and it lands then it's not luck but how many times can you do it out of a hundred

If i throw a dart at a dartboard and get a bullseye that i was aiming for, it's not technically luck because i aimed for it, but it is luck because i'm not skilled enough to repeat the feat as much as the professionals

That's a perfect way of putting it. I get sick of the overly literal approach:

"It's a punch meant to knock you out, it can't be luck."

Yeah, bullshit. Like you said, it can still be luck

 

[RafaelDosSantos]

Legalize PEDs, give everyone a super human chin so they could display their skills and let the better man win

It's not fair Nate Diaz / Roy Nelson etc can naturally take big shots that put others away!

 

[JonesBones]

You're comparing apples to oranges with your examples.

The intention of a fighter is to land a strike in close quarters. They are trained for it and do it with regularity. Woodley is a hard, explosive puncher, especially early in a fight. If he lands cleanly, you're in a lot of trouble.

Now, could this ever happen again in a rematch? If it was luck as you say, then the odds would be almost infinitesimal that it wouldn't. The problem is they are not, which is why luck should not be mentioned.

You want to know examples of mma luck? Belfort's eyescrape win over Couture. Shogun dislocating his elbow from Coleman on a takedown. Jon Jones tearing his toe almost completely off. These are odd circumstances that cannot be trained for or duplicated.

I'm not even talking about Woodley specifically. I am talking about the idea that "luck", or favorable improbable circumstance happens and people who say intent is proof it isn't luck are wrong.

Baseball players and basketball players train every day too. And still rarely succeed at certain things. Like a short stop who hits a few home runs a year. Or maybe zero. If he hits one off a good pitcher it is luck. Just like many good basketball players make lucky shots. It happens.

And I agree MMA has a larger luck factor than other sports. A single second ends a game. One mistake. One score. Over. That instant.

And I think prolonged beatings are more decisive. Like Cain vs JDS. Cain beating him around the ring for however many rounds is more impressive than JDS knocking him out early. A prolonged ass beating is rarely luck.

 

[HaikenEdge]

Yes, we should book fighters to not punch the head. Patterson, get in here.

Pancrase?

 

[bobgeese]

with MMA you have the smaller gloves but more importantly, when a punch is landed, with the follow up, there is no chance to recover like a knockdown in boxing

That;s all good and well, but it is resulting in way too many upsets

Fighters are the top are all very skilled nowadays, there are no muppets

Anyone can land that one strike

Imagine if tennis matches were won by one great point won by the lesser player or one touchdown in the NFL or one basket in the NBA

I don't mind upsets in sport, its good for the sport but in MMA there are too many and they just do not feel earned

If someone outside the Top 10 beats Federer or Murray in a grand slam over 5 sets they have definitely earnt it

Thats what makes it such an exciting sport!!!

 

[justblaze717]

I'm not about to say any of these guys will reign long, but I don't necessarily agree with the fluke part. Luck is important to pretty much everything in life, but you can try to improve your luck.

Werdum rushed into Stipe and Stipe capitalized. Rockhold threw a shitty jab and Bisping capitalized. Alvarez had some good exchanges with RDA, defended the TD, threw the same right hook that he had been throwing, the same hook that he hit RDA with just before the one that dropped him, and then never let up. Woodley threw a right earlier in the fight that barely missed then threw a faint to the body and the same right again. He also arguably made Robbie respect his ability to use wrestling if he just moved forward willy nilly by level changing.

These guys weren't swinging wildly and had clear intentions and/or game plans. And capitalizing on a fighter's mistakes takes at least some skill imo. And neither Bisping or Stipe are bums either. Plus, Luke is known for not having the best boxing skills in the world. Mike tagged him up in the first fight before the kick. Can't recall how often Werdum bum rushes.





Sure, but, as I said above, Woodley threw a right earlier in the fight that barely missed then threw a faint to the body and the same right again. He also made Robbie respect his ability to use wrestling if he just moved forward willy nilly by level changing.

Woodley most definitely had a solid game plan and executed it very well imho.

Werdum rushed in out of desperation. He was losing the fight up to that point.

 

[Ez Eric]

This isn't basketball where each game must go the full 48 mins. This is not football where we are guaranteed 60 mins on the clock
This is combat sports. A finish can happen at any time

 

[cakemuncher]

Fluke wins should be followed by immediate rematches.

 

[Dead Kennedy]

This will be the new walk out for fighters

To keep things fair

 

[BVG]

I dunno wtf is going on but this shit is dull...

UFC needs a dominant champ asap.

 

[mcdowels]

with MMA you have the smaller gloves but more importantly, when a punch is landed, with the follow up, there is no chance to recover like a knockdown in boxing

That;s all good and well, but it is resulting in way too many upsets

Fighters are the top are all very skilled nowadays, there are no muppets

Anyone can land that one strike

Imagine if tennis matches were won by one great point won by the lesser player or one touchdown in the NFL or one basket in the NBA

I don't mind upsets in sport, its good for the sport but in MMA there are too many and they just do not feel earned

If someone outside the Top 10 beats Federer or Murray in a grand slam over 5 sets they have definitely earnt it

its not luck - just people can't take punishment. like you intimate: a well timed, precise shot from a strong athlete will ko almost anyone. so whoever gets it off first. being champion doesn't make you less fragile.

that said, i see plenty of "sparring session" fights where guys hit each other for 15-25 mins at 50% and nothing happens.

also some guys can take a lot like big country or diaz brothers. even jon jones seemed to have taken a pretty clean shot in his last fight but kept going.

but most people will not take a precise shot.

 

[legkicktko]

I'm not even talking about Woodley specifically. I am talking about the idea that "luck", or favorable improbable circumstance happens and people who say intent is proof it isn't luck are wrong.

Baseball players and basketball players train every day too. And still rarely succeed at certain things. Like a short stop who hits a few home runs a year. Or maybe zero. If he hits one off a good pitcher it is luck. Just like many good basketball players make lucky shots. It happens.

And I agree MMA has a larger luck factor than other sports. A single second ends a game. One mistake. One score. Over. That instant.

And I think prolonged beatings are more decisive. Like Cain vs JDS. Cain beating him around the ring for however many rounds is more impressive than JDS knocking him out early. A prolonged ass beating is rarely luck.

This is exactly on point. If I launch a basketball from past half court and it goes in, the fact that I aimed for it and had the intent to make it does not make it any less lucky. A lot of people, particularly those with unyielding, black and white mindsets are afraid to admit the luck involved with these sorts of things.

 

[Danespina]

In rematches, the loser of the first fight wins almost as often as the winner. We don't always have clear ideas of who the better fighter is after only one fight.

 

[mmarcelo]

That's a perfect way of putting it. I get sick of the overly literal approach:

"It's a punch meant to knock you out, it can't be luck."

Yeah, bullshit. Like you said, it can still be luck

Agreed. There's a pretentious legitimacy to those arguments supposedly against excuses... some can't accept that a fight's outcome often is not absolute proof of anything or a clear display of who is superior. Like ts said, in a boxing match you could be knocked down in the first 10 secs and still dominate the rest of the fight, because you'll be allowed to recover.

 

[CFGroup]

Wow now the whining about fighters having the accuracy to KO in minutes.

THAT'S WHAT THE MARTIAL ARTS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN ABOUT!

One punch/kick lights out. It just took MMA 25 years to catch up to other full contact sparing that does that through head protection.

 

[RabbitPunches]

There is a little luck involved in every sport. Part of what makes it fun. I get what you are saying though, because it feels like you didn't get the whole story with a quick KO.

 

[legkicktko]

Agreed. There's a pretentious legitimacy to those arguments supposedly against excuses... some can't accept that a fight's outcome often is not absolute proof of anything or a clear display of who is superior. Like ts said, in a boxing match you could get a knock down in the first 10 secs and still dominate the rest of the fight, because you'll be allowed to recover.

I think its the nature of some people. They are petrified to admit that nothing in life is absolute and the fact that a fight could have ten different results in ten matches doesn't make sense in their "logical" brain.

"The better fighter has to always win."

Hence they analyze shit like stare downs and begin to make staunch predictions about which fighter appears to "know something" the other doesn't. Confidence does play a role, but it isn't absolute. Newsflash: Neither fucking guy at the staredown knows what is going to happen.

 

[Source]

By betting odds Woodley was considered to have less than 50% chance to win last night, yet he happened to win. In other words his variance happened to be on his side in the most important moment of his career despite it was (considered) unlikely. You can definitely say he was lucky in that sense. This should not be difficult to understand. Not going to explain it further, you either get it or you dont.

Do you need me to explain to you betting odds are not the real odds of probability? Second you're adding in emotion into it which is further clouding your judgement. Just because it's considered unlikely doesn't mean it was lucky.

Simple concept test for Tyron to have gotten lucky, that would mean Robbie got unlucky. Do you consider Robbie, who either did not see or was unable to react in time to that punch unlucky? A fight between two people is far more complex than flipping a coin or turning over a couple of cards. For all intents and purposes luck does not exist. I'm afraid it's not me that doesn't get it.

 

[empsim]

most sports have atleast some factor of luck

but I agree that it's higher in MMA than in most others