The odds are HORRIBLY off in the Chris Gutiérrez vs Cody Durden fight (UFC Fight Night)

beroisimo**

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Before I go into what I have to say, just wanna encourage people to do their own research before deciding to wager any money off the back of this thread.

Anyhow, I was doing some research and watching tape on both fighters, and I am absolutely amazed by how heavy the odds are stacked in favour of Gutiérrez. I get that he has fought the better competition, but Durden really posses a lot of problems for him imo:

1) Gutiérrez stands horribly upright in his fights. I've watched tape on Durden, and he's a very solid wrestler who no doubt will take Chris down if he continues to stand this upright; especially since Chris throws a lot of leg kicks.

2) Durden has recently fought in a few kickboxing bouts, and notably trains with the Lima bros (part of American Top Team). Suffice to say, I think Chris's dangerous leg kick game will somewhat be negated (and if not, the leg kick heavy game plays into Durden's wrestling), and imo this is a major part of his success. Take this away, and what does he have which makes him so much better than Cody?

3) Durden is a real game fighter. I really like the grit about this guy. There is zero quit in him, and he seems incredibly confident that he's going to get his hand raised. The guy is on a 7 fight win streak, so has very good momentum going into this fight.

4) Durden was a late replacement for Sanders, and normally this bodes well for the fighter who is fighting the replacement. However, when the replacement is a real game opponent who has the tools to win (and who's also been keeping busy), I personally think this puts them at an advantage. Sanders posed no wrestling threat whatsoever, and was a perfect match up for Gutiérrez's leg kick game. So given how Durden was announced as a replacement with just 7 days to the fight, I really don't think this is long enough to train for a good wrestler.


So maybe I'm missing something guys, but having watched both fighters, no way should the odds be this in favour of Chris. I've actually included Durden in two of my parlays, so fingers crossed my hunch is right about the guy.

Let me know your thoughts :)
 
Thanks for the insight ts, ive read a couple dudes saying the same thing. Gutierrez is good but nothing special.
 
100% agree. Gutierez is kinda like Woodley in that its calf kicks or bust. Also backs up against cage, HATES pressure. Just last fight he was pickem against Morales and all of a sudden hes is 1.25 lol. His loses are to wrestlers, Valiev, Barcelos. De Freistas who is mostly a Jits guy went to split with him. Was tagging him when he just ran and threw hooks with no set up. Durden just needs to do exactly that, untill he gets in on the legs. After that its in his wheelhouse. I messed up and put Gutierrez in 2 multies without research.

I am playing Durden to hedge + add a bit of profit if he wins. Even if Gutierez wins all the value is with Durden 100%
 
Before I go into what I have to say, just wanna encourage people to do their own research before deciding to wager any money off the back of this thread.

Anyhow, I was doing some research and watching tape on both fighters, and I am absolutely amazed by how heavy the odds are stacked in favour of Gutiérrez. I get that he has fought the better competition, but Durden really posses a lot of problems for him imo:

1) Gutiérrez stands horribly upright in his fights. I've watched tape on Durden, and he's a very solid wrestler who no doubt will take Chris down if he continues to stand this upright; especially since Chris throws a lot of leg kicks.

2) Durden has recently fought in a few kickboxing bouts, and notably trains with the Lima bros (part of American Top Team). Suffice to say, I think Chris's dangerous leg kick game will somewhat be negated (and if not, the leg kick heavy game plays into Durden's wrestling), and imo this is a major part of his success. Take this away, and what does he have which makes him so much better than Cody?

3) Durden is a real game fighter. I really like the grit about this guy. There is zero quit in him, and he seems incredibly confident that he's going to get his hand raised. The guy is on a 7 fight win streak, so has very good momentum going into this fight.

4) Durden was a late replacement for Sanders, and normally this bodes well for the fighter who is fighting the replacement. However, when the replacement is a real game opponent who has the tools to win (and who's also been keeping busy), I personally think this puts them at an advantage. Sanders posed no wrestling threat whatsoever, and was a perfect match up for Gutiérrez's leg kick game. So given how Durden was announced as a replacement with just 7 days to the fight, I really don't think this is long enough to train for a good wrestler.


So maybe I'm missing something guys, but having watched both fighters, no way should the odds be this in favour of Chris. I've actually included Durden in two of my parlays, so fingers crossed my hunch is right about the guy.

Let me know your thoughts :)
Where are you finding Durden's recent fight videos?

FYI I'm leaning him at +285 too - Dude trains with Rocco Martin, who LOVES his calf kicks
 
Main concern with Durden is the lack of strength of schedule. I definitely think he's got a skillset that justifies him being closer-priced than this, but he's taking a huge step up here.
 
Before I go into what I have to say, just wanna encourage people to do their own research before deciding to wager any money off the back of this thread.

Anyhow, I was doing some research and watching tape on both fighters, and I am absolutely amazed by how heavy the odds are stacked in favour of Gutiérrez. I get that he has fought the better competition, but Durden really posses a lot of problems for him imo:

1) Gutiérrez stands horribly upright in his fights. I've watched tape on Durden, and he's a very solid wrestler who no doubt will take Chris down if he continues to stand this upright; especially since Chris throws a lot of leg kicks.

2) Durden has recently fought in a few kickboxing bouts, and notably trains with the Lima bros (part of American Top Team). Suffice to say, I think Chris's dangerous leg kick game will somewhat be negated (and if not, the leg kick heavy game plays into Durden's wrestling), and imo this is a major part of his success. Take this away, and what does he have which makes him so much better than Cody?

3) Durden is a real game fighter. I really like the grit about this guy. There is zero quit in him, and he seems incredibly confident that he's going to get his hand raised. The guy is on a 7 fight win streak, so has very good momentum going into this fight.

4) Durden was a late replacement for Sanders, and normally this bodes well for the fighter who is fighting the replacement. However, when the replacement is a real game opponent who has the tools to win (and who's also been keeping busy), I personally think this puts them at an advantage. Sanders posed no wrestling threat whatsoever, and was a perfect match up for Gutiérrez's leg kick game. So given how Durden was announced as a replacement with just 7 days to the fight, I really don't think this is long enough to train for a good wrestler.


So maybe I'm missing something guys, but having watched both fighters, no way should the odds be this in favour of Chris. I've actually included Durden in two of my parlays, so fingers crossed my hunch is right about the guy.

Let me know your thoughts :)

Yup I felt pretty much the same way after I watched tape. Already made a bet on him as well. Like you I really doubt Gutierrez's TDD. Also the fact that this fight takes place in a small cage doesn't benefit the heavy movement style of Gutierrrez at all.
 
Yup I felt pretty much the same way after I watched tape. Already made a bet on him as well. Like you I really doubt Gutierrez's TDD. Also the fact that this fight takes place in a small cage doesn't benefit the heavy movement style of Gutierrrez at all.
Again, where are people finding recent tape of Cody Durden fighting?????
 
Durden has been fighting a bunch of cans and he doesn't look anything special in beating those cans. Gutierrez has been fighting good competition and has a lot of potential imo. I wouldnt bet Gutierrez at these odds but betting on Durden is just hoping for some great improvements and hoping he is ufc ready. I just don't see it when I watch tape.
 
Main concern with Durden is the lack of strength of schedule. I definitely think he's got a skillset that justifies him being closer-priced than this, but he's taking a huge step up here.
Oh believe me, he gets rounds with some of the very best in the game at ATT. I'm not worried about his lack of comp at all.
 
You are aware he's at ATT Atlanta and not the main branch, yeah?
Yh. but from I've heard he's trained up in Florida too, and regularly trains with the Lima bros. Maybe I'm being simplistic, but if you are training with those two absolute animals, then you'd think you wouldn't be phased by someone with the striking of Guttierez.

Still a pick em fight, but the odds are way off.
 
Does it really matter who you train with?

that’s why we watch tape. And have you watched his last three fights? Because from what I’ve heard, they’re out there but hard to find.

Is there any evidence he can deal with calf kicks? Because Gutiérrez is probably going to use them heavily.

and you’re capping this as a pickem fight?
 
Yh. but from I've heard he's trained up in Florida too, and regularly trains with the Lima bros. Maybe I'm being simplistic, but if you are training with those two absolute animals, then you'd think you wouldn't be phased by someone with the striking of Guttierez.

Still a pick em fight, but the odds are way off.
only 1 lima is an animal. lol
 
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