The "Khamzat proves Usman is still elite" problem

[mkt]

A lot of people are saying Usman should be favored tonight because of the Khamzat fight. But remember, Burns also went to a decision with Khamzat and gave him a tough challenge. Burns is the same age as Usman (38) and is on a 4-loss streak. His last win was against an even older Masvidal.

Usman is on a 3-loss streak. His last win was 4 years ago and his last 3 wins were Colby, Masvidal and Burns. I think there's a pattern here.

Also, the "Usman will go back to wrestling to win" thing is a stretch. He hasn't won a fight by a dominant display of TDs and ground control since Woodley in 2019. He beat Masvidal largely by wall-n-stall. But Masvidal is a former LW and not a particularly big/strong WW. Buckley is a former MW who's considerably stronger than Jorge.

Anything can happen, but history shows the younger/prime contender usually beats the old lion in these fights.

 

[Superzorro]

It’s been so long since Usman fought, there’s really no way to tell.

 

[Luthien]

We will find out soon

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

LMAO Usman does NOT have the knees for a 5 round wrestling clinic. He'll paw out one-twos, try to cage stall, and get blasted is my best guess.

 

[Arm Barbarian]

His toughness was what got him through with Khamzat.

He endured the early blitzkrieg, then started to hold his own when Chimaev started to fade.

Usmans prime is definitely behind him, but he is one tough cookie.

I'd say this fight probably ends with either him getting caught with something huge early, or him wearing on his opponent and maybe getting a late stoppage or decision.

But I'd say his number of fights left are limited, regardless of outcome.

 

[Superzorro]

LMAO Usman does NOT have the knees for a 5 round wrestling clinic. He'll paw out one-twos, try to cage stall, and get blasted is my best guess.

I don’t know if that’s necessarily a given. It depends on the wrestling defense of his opponent. If Buckley has TDD on the level of Khamzat or Colby, sure. Also a little food for thought, knees play a pretty big role in takedown defense as well. And his sprawl was pretty on point against Chimaev.

 

[mkt]

His toughness was what got him through with Khamzat.

He endured the early blitzkrieg, then started to hold his own when Chimaev started to fade.

Usmans prime is definitely behind him, but he is one tough cookie.

I'd say this fight probably ends with either him getting caught with something huge early, or him wearing on his opponent and maybe getting a late stoppage or decision.

But I'd say his number of fights left are limited, regardless of outcome.

He's tough and a huge WW, I'll give him that. His size/strength were the main reasons he edged out Colby in his prime (both of their fights were competitive). And that's the reason he'll like be a tougher opponent for Buckley than Colby was....but I still think Buckley wins. We'll see.

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

 

[HatKick]

Well the difference bewteen Usman and Burns is Usman fought Khamzat much more recently. Burns has looked bad recently whereas Usman still looked elite even in his losses.

That said, he's also been inactive and gotten a year or two older so it's hard to make any predictions.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

I don’t know if that’s necessarily a given. It depends on the wrestling defense of his opponent. If Buckley has TDD on the level of Khamzat or Colby, sure. Also a little food for thought, knees play a pretty big role in takedown defense as well. And his sprawl was pretty on point against Chimaev.

I'm telling you sherbro, those things are fuckin shredded and not in a good way. His right leg looks like it's atrophying at this point. The Khamzat fight was almost 2 years ago

 

[mkt]

Well the difference bewteen Usman and Burns is Usman fought Khamzat much more recently. Burns has looked bad recently whereas Usman still looked elite even in his losses.

That said, he's also been inactive and gotten a year or two older so it's hard to make any predictions.

I agree with most of that, but would quibble with a couple of things.

Burns has mostly looked bad during the last 20 months when Usman hasn't fought. That's when his last 3 losses happened. Usman may have also declined since 2023. We just don't know because he's been inactive.

Usman may have still looked elite vs. Edwards, but seeing how Edwards has now lost 2 in a row (including to a 36-year old Belal), I'd say Usman's "elite losses" haven't aged that well.

We'll find out soon enough.

 

[TempleoftheDog]

It’s a year and a half since he last fought. And over 2 since he fought at WW.

38 years old, with more time added on to the mileage. It’s not a recipe for success.

Buckley by TKO.

 

[bng]

 

[CatchtheseHands]

LMAO Usman does NOT have the knees for a 5 round wrestling clinic. He'll paw out one-twos, try to cage stall, and get blasted is my best guess.

When have we ever seen Usman get blasted though outside of that fluke Leon head kick? I don't think it's super likely Usman gets finished here but I wouldn't be surprised if Buckley does it. He certainly is capable of it.

 

[mkt]

When have we ever seen Usman get blasted though outside of that fluke Leon head kick? I don't think it's super likely Usman gets finished here but I wouldn't be surprised if Buckley does it. He certainly is capable of it.

It could be cumulative strikes over several rounds. Buckley did that to Colby, who still has a good chin.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

When have we ever seen Usman get blasted though outside of that fluke Leon head kick? I don't think it's super likely Usman gets finished here but I wouldn't be surprised if Buckley does it. He certainly is capable of it.

Buckley hits a lot harder than Leon and has been on a 5 fight win streak during the time Usman has been inactive. He's going to be stronger, in better shape, and more fight ready IMO. I don't think Buckley sparks him with the first shot he lands, but I feel he will land heavy on a slow Marty and I'll be surprised if Joaquin doesn't finish it under 3, it's his one chance to make a big statement.

 

[CatchtheseHands]

Buckley hits a lot harder than Leon and has been on a 5 fight win streak during the time Usman has been inactive. He's going to be stronger, in better shape, and more fight ready IMO. I don't think Buckley sparks him with the first shot he lands, but I feel he will land heavy on a slow Marty and I'll be surprised if Joaquin doesn't finish it under 3, it's his one chance to make a big statement.

Usman hits very hard and is capable of chinning Buckley too. I wouldn't count Usman out even with the disadvantages he has coming into this fight. Buckley has not fought someone at WW yet with Usman's physicality and power who can also push a pace. Buckley is normally the stronger, more powerful guy and that's given him quite a big advantage over those he's fought at WW. He won't have that same advantages in this fight. The only advantage Buck maintains in this match up is explosiveness and speed.

 

[Danespina]

Usman vs. Buckley is such an awesome fight. Partially because of the questions it'll answer.

 

[Neck&Neck]

I heard he got a Brazilian knee lift, and he’s all good now

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

The only advantage Buck maintains in this match up is explosiveness and speed.

Those are fucking massive advantages to have over someone who does not have functioning knees.

Usman hits very hard and is capable of chinning Buckley too.

The only person he ever chinned was a washed Masvidal half a decade ago. He broke Colby's jaw after Colby was running into his fist for 20 minutes.

Buckley has not fought someone at WW yet with Usman's physicality and power who can also push a pace

I don't think Usman can push a pace anymore, but tonight will answer a lot of questions.

I'm still leaning towards a TKO'd Usman retiring tonight in Atlanta.