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Let's take a look at some information at the moment.
DHEA has been banned for a very long time.
There are many threads that have pointed out DHEA has been banned since at least 2012, and some others say that it has been banned since earlier than that (2005?). In either scenario, DHEA has been on the banned substance list for a very long time and this change did not take place in 2016.
There is a misunderstanding here by many people that even though USADA had banned DHEA for a long time, Machida may not have known. This is incorrect. The State Athletic Commissions all use the same banned substances list that the WADA publishes. When WADA banned DHEA, the NSAC, the CSAC, etc. also banned DHEA.
So even before the USADA deal with the UFC, DHEA was banned in the UFC because of the athletic commissions. Lyoto Machida knew this substance was banned.
Teammates of Lyoto have been caught with banned substances.
As everyone knows, Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida are very close friend and practically brothers. They spend holidays together, they train together, their children are friends, etc. Anderson Silva was caught using steroids.
Other Black House members that have been caught with steroids include Kevin Casey, Brian Ortega, and Rafael Calvacante. That's 4 fighters before Lyoto.
Lyoto may not be tested for anything else now that he has admitted to a banned substance.
This is where I believe things get interesting. Now that Lyoto has admitted to using a banned substance, DHEA, USADA may not even test his samples for anything beyond this. He has been flagged for a violation so samples may not even have to be processed.
Additionally, Machida has now been removed from his bout, eliminating the need for other sample collections that would have been necessary pre- and post-fight.
Even if they do test further and they find evidence of steroids, he can now pretend like this was some accidental occurrence do to a supplement you can easily find on any store shelf.
My Theory
Lyoto Machida knew that he was going to be caught with a banned substance, possibly from doing his own independent testing or knowing that he did not cycle properly. Instead of being caught with steroids like his teammates have in the past, he went a different route.
By making an admission, he has potentially put an end to further testing. Instead of a test revealing that Machida tested positive for steroids which would tarnish his legacy severely, he now has public opinion on his side for making an "honest mistake". His fans, as evidence all over Sherdog, find it ridiculous that a supplement you an buy at any store.
Instead of Machida now being hated, people are mad at USADA for their ridiculous rules. Machida is not a villain, he is now a victim.
Why I believe this.
Machida is a veteran of the sport. Any true veteran knows that DHEA has been banned for a very long time.
DHEA also does not last a long time in your body which makes it hard to detect. Veterans, especially in a gym full of athletes proven to use illegal substances, would know these things.
As soon as the news broke, Machida and his team started to release statements that were clearly fabrications trying to claim 2015 the substance was legal and 2016 it was banned. This makes no sense other than to garner positie public opinion.
The punishment for testing positive for DHEA may or may not have the same punishment from USADA as testing positive for steroids, but in the mind of the public - where legacies are made - the difference is significant. He may even be able to plea his punishment from USADA down which would not be possible if he were caught with steroids.
TL;DR
Machida took and admitted to DHEA on purpose, because he knew there was a high probability of testing for steroids. Instead of going down like Silva, he can now pretend to be a victim of USADA.
DHEA has been banned for a very long time.
There are many threads that have pointed out DHEA has been banned since at least 2012, and some others say that it has been banned since earlier than that (2005?). In either scenario, DHEA has been on the banned substance list for a very long time and this change did not take place in 2016.
There is a misunderstanding here by many people that even though USADA had banned DHEA for a long time, Machida may not have known. This is incorrect. The State Athletic Commissions all use the same banned substances list that the WADA publishes. When WADA banned DHEA, the NSAC, the CSAC, etc. also banned DHEA.
So even before the USADA deal with the UFC, DHEA was banned in the UFC because of the athletic commissions. Lyoto Machida knew this substance was banned.
Teammates of Lyoto have been caught with banned substances.
As everyone knows, Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida are very close friend and practically brothers. They spend holidays together, they train together, their children are friends, etc. Anderson Silva was caught using steroids.
Other Black House members that have been caught with steroids include Kevin Casey, Brian Ortega, and Rafael Calvacante. That's 4 fighters before Lyoto.
Lyoto may not be tested for anything else now that he has admitted to a banned substance.
This is where I believe things get interesting. Now that Lyoto has admitted to using a banned substance, DHEA, USADA may not even test his samples for anything beyond this. He has been flagged for a violation so samples may not even have to be processed.
Additionally, Machida has now been removed from his bout, eliminating the need for other sample collections that would have been necessary pre- and post-fight.
Even if they do test further and they find evidence of steroids, he can now pretend like this was some accidental occurrence do to a supplement you can easily find on any store shelf.
My Theory
Lyoto Machida knew that he was going to be caught with a banned substance, possibly from doing his own independent testing or knowing that he did not cycle properly. Instead of being caught with steroids like his teammates have in the past, he went a different route.
By making an admission, he has potentially put an end to further testing. Instead of a test revealing that Machida tested positive for steroids which would tarnish his legacy severely, he now has public opinion on his side for making an "honest mistake". His fans, as evidence all over Sherdog, find it ridiculous that a supplement you an buy at any store.
Instead of Machida now being hated, people are mad at USADA for their ridiculous rules. Machida is not a villain, he is now a victim.
Why I believe this.
Machida is a veteran of the sport. Any true veteran knows that DHEA has been banned for a very long time.
DHEA also does not last a long time in your body which makes it hard to detect. Veterans, especially in a gym full of athletes proven to use illegal substances, would know these things.
As soon as the news broke, Machida and his team started to release statements that were clearly fabrications trying to claim 2015 the substance was legal and 2016 it was banned. This makes no sense other than to garner positie public opinion.
The punishment for testing positive for DHEA may or may not have the same punishment from USADA as testing positive for steroids, but in the mind of the public - where legacies are made - the difference is significant. He may even be able to plea his punishment from USADA down which would not be possible if he were caught with steroids.
TL;DR
Machida took and admitted to DHEA on purpose, because he knew there was a high probability of testing for steroids. Instead of going down like Silva, he can now pretend to be a victim of USADA.
