International Syria Discussions, v2: Turkey threatens to veto NATO plans unless the YPG is labelled "a threat"

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Arkain2K, Oct 17, 2019.

  1. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
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  2. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Pence, Pompeo secure Syria cease-fire agreement with Turkey
    By Ronn Blitzer | Oct 17, 2019


     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2019
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  3. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    We shall see how Syria and Russia will react, since this would-be safe zone is still on Syria's sovereign land after all. They could say hell no and the fighting will resume, or perhaps they would join hand in administering and secure the Safe Zone (a job that the West do not want and was previously a sticking point in the safe zone plannings with the Kurdish leadership, who is okay with its creation but doesn't want the Turkish military running it, out of their rightful concern that Turkey would use it as a beachhead to push further into Kurdish territories in the future).

    Naturally, the Syrian Kurds immediately jumped on this deal now, considering that the geopolitical climate has evolved with the introduction of the Syrian government and Russia troops into the mix. Kurdish forces can pull back from the fighting along the borders now as Turkey agreed to put an end to their "Operation Peace Spring" beyond the Safe Zone, while the Syrian and Russian military are left holding the bag with Turkish border patrols amd peace-keeping duty, a long-term volunteer job that the West doesn't want since it require boots on the ground.

    This is when Europe will publicly pretending that they are against Turkey releasing the 3.6 Million Syrian refugees to the Syrian safe zone, while privately thanking the stars that Erdogan's hand isn't forced to go through with his threat to release them into Europe instead.

    At the same time, Trump-tweets analysts and politicians who were previously shedding crocodile tears for the Kurds will be very annoyed and disappointed that Turkey agreed in this deal to cancel their previous plan of continue marching deep into Syrian Kurdish territory to look for "terrorists" (a.k.a YPG/PKK) well beyond the safe zone, so it looks like there wouldn't be any "mass ethnic cleansing" and wide-scale "bloodshed" on Kurdish civilians all over Rojava, as previously demonstrated in Kentucky.

    If everything works out (and there's no guarantee it would yet until we can see Syria's response), then nearly every player can claims benefit from the latest development:

    - Turkey is happy they have the safe zone they wanted and no longer have 3.6 million Syrian refugees to take care of indefinitely. Most importantly, there will be a buffer between the Syrian Kurds and Turkish Kurds, something that Ankara has always frown upon no matter who's their President, for a large contiguous cross-border Kurdish population naturally nourish the idea of Kurdish Independence from inside Turkey that must be extinguished.

    - Europe is (privately) happy they wouln't be flooded with yet another gigantic wave of Syrian refugees through Turkey. The virtue-signalling while no one actually do anything can continue. Also, Turkey no longer have the human leverage to blackmail Europe into paying for the safe zone either.

    - Russia is happy that they are the new peace-keeping force in the area after the U.S withdraws from Syria, as previous announced a year ago. Syria is a rare win for Moscow in geopolitics, and since they are actually here legally on behalf of the Syrian government, they will certainly have a long-term role in any future dealings.

    - The U.S is happy they're no longer stuck in Syria after they finished fighting ISIS, and risk getting sucked back into the decade-old Syrian civil war, long after the world has already given up on removing Assad from power, not to mention the extremely awkward possibility of an unprecedented NATO vs. NATO confrontation. The Americans/Kurds/Turks made a deal to create a Safe Zone on Syrian land, yet the U.S managed to conveniently pass this hot potato onto the Russians, whose presence is now expected to keep NATO-rogue Turkey in check and keeping the peace in this volatile region, since it directly involves their bff Syria.

    - The West is happy that they could continue to assists the Kurds in other ways while not risking their troops' lives doing patrol duties on the front lines (such as the resettlement of the civilians from the frontier back into Rojava proper, investing in their petro economy, etc). Previous funding and weapons that they have been sending to the Syrian rebels could be diverted to the Kurds instead to shore up their long-term autonomy and development.

    - The Syrian Kurds are happy that they finally have a possibility of long-term security. They previously agreed last month to use this chunk of Syrian land previously under their control next to the Turkish border to create the safe zone, because they can see the appeals of having a 20-mile buffer filled with non-Kurd Syrian refugees that would geographically separates between the Kurds and their much-better equipped Turkish nemesis, now with Russian/Syrian troops on patrol as an added bonus.

    - The Syrian government is stoked that Assad will continue to be President for life. Their strategy of treating the Kurds better than the Turks will pay dividents, if they choose to continue a peaceful and fruitful symbiotic relationship between Damascus and semi-autonomous Rojava, much like Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan regional government. If they play their cards right, it wouldn't be long until Syria is admitted back into the Arabs League once more, and soon the world will completely ignore the previous "red lines" Obama drew for Assad that had already been long washed away.

    The only pawns that lost big time in all of this are the Syrian rebels (previously backed and funded by the West) currently fighting alongside Turkish forces who are still desperately trying to topple Assad. They will be casted aside, but that too was long predicted, when everyone's attention turned to ISIS and the Syrian civil war was promptly forgotten.

    The mainstream media will ofcourse pretends that the sky is falling and Turkey is somehow the sole "winner" in all of this, and I have no doubts there will be plenty of warhawks joining in the chorus against this ceasefire, much to our amusement since they are the same people who previously pretended to care about the Kurds' century-old plight.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2019
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  4. Happy Man

    Happy Man Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    I assume in the 5 days the SAA can move to
    More border areas?

    this is great news. Syrian gets its oil fields back. Kurds come back to their nation, and the are protected and disarmed.

    the Turks don’t need a buffer then. No Kurdish threat. The refugees get to come home!

    turkey wins, Syria wins, Kurds kinda win, kinda lose.


    The isreal first military industrial complex and foreign policy establishment must be PISSED.
    same with our media. No massacre of Kurds.

    Trump actually is smart or stumbled into great success.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2019
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  5. PEB

    PEB Atomic Butt Drop Champ :)

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  6. Graves

    Graves ******WTF Belt****** Platinum Member

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    fake news
     
  7. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Syrian Kurdish-led force says it will abide by cease-fire
    By LEFTERIS PITARAKIS and BASSEM MROUE

    [​IMG]
    https://www.apnews.com/c27ec5d2fa3b4954a65bc359f497a22a
     
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  8. hisandherpes

    hisandherpes Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    this is it!!
     
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  9. PhitePhan

    PhitePhan Blue Belt

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    I'm assuming what you wrote here represents a VERY optimistic outcome, no? I'd be curious to see a critique, no offense. Hell, even if only half of what you posted comes to fruition this seems great!
     
  10. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    I said in the very first paragraph that whether this could work out or quickly goes to shit is depends on the reaction from the Russians and Syrians. They are the de-facto peace-keepers of this region now, and if they refuse to recognize this deal, then everything else is moot.

    Actually, Erdogan doesn't gives a shit about what the Syrians think either, but he's not anxious to engage the Russian forces separating his troops and the Syrian troops at the border, after burning his bridges with the West.

    I am optimistic that the ceasefire will holds if Russia agree to take the job though, because everyone have something to gain from it.

    It wouldn't take that much effort to find critiques of this deal from the usual pundits. Just open your favorite mainstream news site like and you'll find the sky to be falling again, or it might be falling even faster now with this ceasefire.

    The biggest problem that I find with Turkey's plan for the Safe Zone is actually the logistic of it all. They estimated that the costs to relocate the Syrian refugees back to Syria and make it viable for them to live there will be around $26.4 Billion, and I seriously, seriously doubt they will be able to get that much in donation from the international community with the stunt they just pulled.

    From a week ago, when hardly anyone cared about this region at all:


    Will Turkey succeed in creating a 'safe zone' for Syrians?
    Development projects planned for safe return of Syrian refugees, but critics raise questions about feasibility.
    by Sinem Koseoglu | 8 Oct 2019​

    [​IMG]


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019...eating-safe-zone-syrians-191008114825095.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2019
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  11. IngaVovchanchyn

    IngaVovchanchyn Titanium Belt Platinum Member

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    So the Turks lost six guys and the Kurds and other Syrian rebels ~400? Sounds like an ass-kicking. I'm also not sure how people are saying this is good for the Kurds since it seems like the agreement calls for them to pull their forces out of the area where the bulk of the Syrian Kurdish population is concentrated.
     
  12. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    That's actually not a new development. A lot of people probably didn't know this, but the Kurdish leaders already agreed to withdraw their forces a month ago from the area.

    The only major thing that was left to haggle about the Safe Zone is who will run the place. The Turks want their troops to do it, the Kurds want it to be either a military-free zone or administered by American and European troops (because they sure as hell don't trust the Turks), but the problem is neither the U.S nor Europe wants to send in the tens of thousands of troops needed to patrol this 20-mile deep, 300-mile long region. Most of our Western allies actually outright refuses to put any boots on the ground at all, despite repeated pleading from both the U.S and the Kurds for an international peace-keeping force.

    And so as the Kurds moved out, the Americans also moved out, the Turks moved in guns-blazing instead of moving out, which leads to the Kurds moving back in to fight them, which leads to the Syrians and Russians making a deal with the Kurds and moving in as well to fill the vacuum along the Syrian-Turkish border that the West left behind.

    I actually like the Kurds, so it's fine with me if the Russians (or anyone else) agree to take this hot potato and willing to be the official peace-keeper of the Safe Zone andkeep everyone's least favorite NATO member in check, since no one else wanted to do it. It would be a good geopolitical win for Moscow, so the chance of them taking over border security duty for us is pretty good right now.

    PS: This is from last month, when the U.S/Turks/Kurds plannings for the safe zone was still on track:


    Kurdish Official: Syria's 'Safe Zone' Off to Good Start
    By Associated Press | September 4, 2019

    [​IMG]

    https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/kurdish-official-syrias-safe-zone-good-start
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2019
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  13. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Syrian Kurds accuse Turkey of violating Truce
    By Patrick Kingsley| Oct. 18, 2019

    [​IMG]

    ISTANBUL — Shelling and gunfire continued in northern Syria on Friday morning, casting further doubt on the feasibility of a cease-fire announced a day before by Vice President Mike Pence between Turkish and Kurdish forces and raising questions about whether the Americans can even enforce it.

    The Kurdish leadership in northern Syria accused the Turkish military and its proxies of violating the terms of the truce. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denied that any fighting was continuing.

    But shelling raged on in the Syrian border town of Ras al-Ain, and gunfire could be heard by journalists just across the border in Turkey. The continuation of the deadly conflict provided further evidence of the United States’ diminished influence, showing that the American military, having evacuated its troops from northern Syria, had no practical ability to enforce the cease-fire.

    The truce deal had already amounted to a near victory for Mr. Erdogan, who appears to have outmaneuvered President Trump, since it gave the assent of the United States to a Turkish sphere of influence in northern Syria.

    A spokesman for the Kurdish forces, Mustafa Bali, said on Twitter that Turkey continued to pound civilian areas and a hospital, despite the announcement on Thursday night by Mr. Pence that there would be a five-day pause in the fighting to allow Kurdish fighters to move away from the Turkish border.

    Responding to the claims that Turkey had violated the truce, Mr. Erdogan told a reporter after leaving Friday Prayers at a mosque in Istanbul: “I do not know where you get your information from. Conflict is out of the question.”

    In a speech later on Friday, Mr. Erdogan said Turkish forces had stopped fighting and would begin again only if Kurdish troops had not retreated by Tuesday night from Kurdish-run areas in northern Syria that have been occupied by Turkish forces in the past week.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/18/world/middleeast/syria-ceasefire-kurds-turkey.html
     
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  14. tonni

    tonni Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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  15. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    Make no mistake. The MIC does not want the Russians or Syrians or Iranians in control of this area.

    They still have the pipe dream that regime change is possible
     
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  16. PolishHeadlock2

    PolishHeadlock2 Absolutley Haram Platinum Member

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  17. xcvbn

    xcvbn Silver Belt

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  18. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    Russia, Syria, Iran, Turkey.

    Is there anyone outside of Europe you fuckers do not want war with
     
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  19. Farmer Br0wn

    Farmer Br0wn Farmer Br0wn belt

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  20. Arkain2K

    Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    ...and then turn the plane around and drop a few JDAMs on our own airbase in defense of our official NATO ally against an attack from us.

    Sounds like one for the history book!
     

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