First, huge thanks to Tim for giving me an outlet for my thoughts. As I told Tim, I hope you guys like what I have to say. At the minimum, I hope it stimulates some discourse on the subject.
I owe Tim the next installments, and have a lot going on, but wanted to address one of the points many of you did, with a funny anecdote.
It's brazilian jiujitsu, you shouldn't need S&C.
Marcelo Garcia doesn't do it, and he's Marcelo Garcia.
I was at a John Berardi nutrition seminar (his stuff is the best out there, imo), when an attendee raised a point like cooltoon did. The attendee had been told conflicting advice by his friend who consistently achieved great results. John said, "we call them 'guywho' statistics". Everyone looked around, and waited for John to explain.
John said, yeah, "We all know a 'guywho' smoked three packs a day and lived to be 100. We all know a 'guywho' eats pizza and ice cream daily but stays ripped. We know a 'guywho' quit school when he was 14 and is now a millionaire". This always stuck with me.
Cooltoon, the last line in your comment is the most important one. He's Marcelo Garcia. I am most decidedly not, as most people on this board are not. If I had the God-given talent and dedication of Marcelo Garcia, I'd possibly have a different perspective. But I don't, so I need every advantage I can get. As do all but Marcelo and maybe 5 other guys on the planet.
This sort of logic ignores a number of quantitative principles, but let's talk about something Nassim Taleb calls the "Survivorship Bias". A ship wrecks on a rocky coast and all but 3 people survive. When asked how they were saved, they all said the same thing, "I prayed to God to save me." Why can't we conclude that this is a valid technique for surviving disasters?
Well, mostly because we don't get the opportunity to interview all of the passengers who died. It's entirely possible they all prayed for safety, as well.
The amount of BJJ practitioners who trained exactly how Marcelo Garcia trained is much higher than the number of World Champions. And none of us has ever heard of them.
Not necessarily concerned with trying to convince you or anyone else that I'm right here, just trying to get you to think about stacking the deck in your favor best you can.
Best Regards,
Leo