I would be shocked to see the S&P getting past the 4400s, 4300's is as high as I am expecting. It's a good time to short imo. I imagine this time in September we would have already started the reversal.
maybe.
it's also possible we're in smooth sailing. the inflation that wasn't due to shitty monetary policy/govt spending was largely due to supply side constraints (some artificial, re: covid). these appear to be mostly easing tremendously... aside from energy, which is a crapshoot and inconsistent. and it was the primary objection to rate hikes (that rate hikes can't really affect supply issues [of course, i understand that supply and demand are linked and that hurting demand does basically the same thing... but arguably, a double-whammy] - leaving it pointless, at best, and punishing, at worst) - and that inflation will only truly cede when the supply-side issues recover/correct.
funny enough, this seems to have been forgotten this week. cnbc/bloomberg/internet seem to just be bearish as fuck and spinning only that the markets have it all wrong.
so i dunno. as usual, i'm kinda in the middle. i think the bears have been greedy/a little nuts and i think the markets are weird. but i'm also holding all kinds of shit that's been punished for kicking ass. which makes no sense. all in all, i think most (seriously. most) individual stocks are mispriced - and a lot of them are horribly mispriced. in each direction. some seem retardedly overvalued and some are stupidly undervalued. i wish i had the funds to play all of them with volume...
i know that the market's chock full of tards/funds/etc that ~only care about indexes and i think it's kind of a huge problem. but i guess that's another story, albeit related.
edit: that said, it's also possible that the stupid anti-inflation bill/law (that looks inflationary. [tax credits encourage buying] thanks, retard govt!)/people thinking no recession/etc will give inflation a new leg up.