Stonk Market Chat v5: We miss you @JonesBones

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rob mafia said:
hint: i literally answered this. maybe if you knew what "theta" meant...
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You know I'm speaking more broadly about stock trading for retail investors in general. I'm surre your 'strategy' is muuch much better and not liable to the same issues as I've described *wink*.

I don't care if you choose to pick up pennies in front of a steam roller by selling uncovered options or whatever it is you do, I'm speaking about the average Joe buying and selling stocks based on his 'research'.
 
no fat chicks said:
They're shifting to straight software development. No hangups with manufacturing.
All their software is going to be used in autonomous vehicles. Big money on the horizon with BB
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"all their software"?
How is it going to be used?
Just because something may possibly kinda sorta work in a theoretical future vehicle doesn't mean it actually gets to that and things price accordingly.

Pardon me if this is shit you already do, but I'm writing it out for shared interest...
When I analyze a stock like this I ask myself a number of questions (some people focus on other stuff obviously):
-Bull case (best scenario. So....a small royalty on how many millions of cars per year? Creates a company valued at ___? What multiple of current valuation would that be? Does another company buy them out? At what price?)
-Bear case (worst case. software is useless, company loses marketshare for whatever their software does vs a competitors, based on debt it falls too __)
-% short float (How many ppl are betting against this stock already, which creates artificial buying if they exit their against-bet, which requires repurchasing some borrowed shares they sold to short the stock)
-Insider buying or selling
-Analyst ratings (can be bogus, but worth seeing published sentiment)


For BB I do see an attractive possibility of reversal, but would want to figure out wtf their software actually does these days before putting bets on it. I play some single day flips on it earlier in the year, but I think it was at higher levels.
 
wlu.29 said:
Aren't capital gains taxed much lower than regular income?

@Revolver
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Short term gains are taxed at ordinary income rate and long term depends on your tax bracket. Could be 0-20%.

edit: didn’t read what you were quoting originally. There’s special tax treatment for traders who qualify. They’ll report income and losses like it was their business on sch c as ordinary income. Allows for losses to be reported in excess of 3k and can be offset by expenses incurred. Instead of how everyone else does on sch D.
 
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Pseudo Sane said:
Pff. Barely even autistic.

Next you'll say you trade spreads.
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only sometimes. i generally just sell FDs on stocks i long... and metric fucktons of weeklies on beautifully priced garbage, playing it both ways (ie: acb, nbev, etc)

recently, i've been buying up shares of dumb (upcoming/wanna-be) meme stocks just to sell calls to the wsb horde and/or flip, depending.

i tend to micromanage spreads which defeated some of the purpose of going theta gang...
 
7437 said:
Not really. You can see how big players consistantly beat the market. Like this Berkshire mutual fund beats the SP 500.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/084649102

You can look at stocks and guess if they are gonna go up or down alot of the time. For example, Boeing is currently down, because they killed all those people and the 737 max still cant fly. Not great. Think that the MAX will ever fly? I do. And that would increase Boeing value. So would a war, they are a big defense contractor. I could be wrong, the 737 could never fly and the defense budget could be cut. I'd lose value on my Boeing stocks, and likely wouldnt beat the market short term.
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BRK is the exception not the rule and past results don't guarantee future returns.

Buffett is also one of the biggest advocators for index funds and said that Bogle has done more for the average retail investor than anyone else.

"Let me add a few thoughts about your own investments. Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals.” – Warren Buffett

He also put his money where his mouth was and quite famously won an open bet where he proclaimed that because of the fee difference no mutual fund or funds that take the bet will be able to beat an index fund over the period of a decade.

Beating the market is possible but the vast majority of professional traders fail to do it over the long term. Retail investors do even worse. You're out there competing against the BRKs.
 
I need to quit bros, I will never beat the market...
87070061_2531291183857028_686731520777388032_n.jpg
 
brackis1 said:
I make over 4 trades on over 80% of market open days and don't hold any position more than 30 days. Because of this, I was allowed to apply for Trader Status, where my gains for the year are taxed at end of yr vs beginning of year, not on individual capital gains that you'd normally incur everything you buy or sell a stock. (something I need to do in advance of paying taxes)

It is not advisable for ppl who can't sit at a desk all day.
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lol at taxes

I'm in Canada playing entirely with registered accounts.

We have "tax free savings accounts" (current lifetime maximum contribution is $69,500), on which you never pay tax. (Ironically, unless you're deemed to be a professional trader.)

We also have registered retirement and education accounts. You do not pay any taxes on these accounts until the time of withdrawal. In the case of education accounts, the amount is only taxable to the beneficiary (ie: a student who has no employment income, and therefore falls into a lower tax bracket). In the case of retirement accounts, the amount is taxable only at the time of withdrawal (presumably when you have no employment income, so again, you are in a lower tax bracket.)
 
Nvda has been on a nice long run since it bottomed last year. Killed it on that one
 
Last thread I told you guys to jump on PLUG. I keep buying when it dipped under 4. Its 5.22 today.
The analysts shit the bed on this stock because they did not understand HFC and was worried about how it applies to cars. Cars are not currently viable for HFC, Elon Musk made sure of that. HFC is used with forklifts because they retain the power better than electrical and less repairs. So all these big warehouses, like with Amazon buy from PLUG.
Also like 20% of the stock is shorts, and the shorts are panicking after PLUG new contracts, so they are hedging, which is funneling this rise.
I was telling my buddies every time it dipped below 4 to jump, only one friend took my advice.
 
rob mafia said:
aurora's a printing press if you know how to play it.
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I missed the current run. Its around 1.72 today. I will wait for it to go back down and might play for some quick money.
 
44nutman said:
I missed the current run. Its around 1.72 today. I will wait for it to go back down and might play for some quick money.
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*shrugs* my shares are at an average of $1.8x, it really doesn't matter. i sell weekly covered calls on them @$2 and sell some puts @ $1.50

and funny enough, i added PLUG to my list last night... and didn't get around to it this morning (focused on deac and some other shit, instead). oops

edit: bought a single leap call on plug, basically as a reminder. haha
 
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DEAC for a DraftKings sportsbetting play? Valued under a billion which surprised me
 
rob mafia said:
*shrugs* my shares are at an average of $1.8x, it really doesn't matter. i sell weekly covered calls on them @$2 and sell some puts @ $1.50

and funny enough, i added PLUG to my list last night... and didn't get around to it this morning (focused on deac and some other shit, instead). oops

edit: bought a single leap call on plug, basically as a reminder. haha
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It was 5.22 at 9:45 this morning and got up to 6.14 after hours today
 
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