So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent

[Nebi]

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/...npr&utm_campaign=nprnews&utm_content=04022014

For the past three years, Rich and 3,000 other average people have been quietly making probability estimates about everything from Venezuelan gas subsidies to North Korean politics as part of , an experiment put together by three well-known psychologists and some people inside the intelligence community.

According to one report, the predictions made by the Good Judgment Project are often better even than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, and many of the people involved in the project have been astonished by its success at making accurate predictions.

In fact, she's so good she's been put on a special team with other superforecasters whose predictions are reportedly 30 percent better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information.

Rich and her teammates are that good even though all the information they use to make their predictions is available to anyone with access to the Internet.

When I asked if she goes to obscure Internet sources, she shook her head no.

"Usually I just do a Google search," she said.

 

[Byron Carter]

At it's best, the CIA is inept. At it's worst, it's evil.

Disband it. Rand Paul 2016.

 

[Bukowski82]

At it's best, the CIA is inept. At it's worst, it's evil.

Disband it. Rand Paul 2016.

It pains me that you have a Hitchens AV up and posted this, tbh.

 

[IDL]

Sounds sorta like buying a market ETF vs an actively managed fund.

You'll beat most professionals but there will always be insider traders who will win.

 

[Higus]

Interesting article, but not that surprising. There are lots of research about the nature of forecasting and why even "experts" can still be wildly incorrect.

 

[UpaLoompa]

Thanks, fun read.

 

[Megatronlee]

Hahahahah

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

I want a job guessing the probability of events. Sounds like fun. Thanks for the post TS.

 

[Byron Carter]

It pains me that you have a Hitchens AV up and posted this, tbh.

"A record of crime, disinformation, and lying to the American people."

 

[UpaLoompa]

"A record of crime, disinformation, and lying to the American people."

He's likely referring to your support of Rand Paul. Faced with Rand and Clinton (who Hitchens despised), I'm guessing Hitchens would abstain.

 

[ben236]

That's just really cool.

 

[Byron Carter]

He's likely referring to your support of Rand Paul. Faced with Rand and Clinton (who Hitchens despised), I'm guessing Hitchens would abstain.

Hitchens supported Obama, for the main reasons that Obama was for open government, stopping the wars in the Middle East, and stopping the government intrusion into our lives.

Well, turned out Obama was a liar and didn't do any of that.

Rand Paul MIGHT.

Hitchens also hated Hillary Clinton.

And besides.. Hitchens preached critical thinking, not to blindly follow him. I disagree with a lot of his ideas, that doesn't mean I'm not a huge admirer of his.

 

[alexdlrg]

I would be interested to see how badly regression toward the mean hurts their "super forecasters" in the near future.

 

[Iroh]

Went into this thread hoping for some kind of test or other way to compare myself to a CIA agent, but didn't expect my hope to be fulfilled. Guess I had a solid prediction.

 

[MadSquabbles500]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5xuSeYtyRU



apparently we are also much more explosive and athletic than a CIA spy, and are tougher if you watch the other parts of the interview.

 

[IDL]

apparently we are also much more explosive and athletic than a CIA spy, and are tougher if you watch the other parts of the interview.

Was reading some interesting things about spies. Apparently most spies are decidedly average physically so they don't stick out. Makes sense.

It's not exactly like Hollywood

 

[faustian]

The article keeps saying these people's forecasting is "reportedly" better than CIA agents. wtf is that supposed to mean, reported by who?

 

[IDL]

The article keeps saying these people's forecasting is "reportedly" better than CIA agents. wtf is that supposed to mean, reported by who?

If there is another terrorist attack, they are going to blame it on the public for not telling them.

 

[Madmick]

The article keeps saying these people's forecasting is "reportedly" better than CIA agents. wtf is that supposed to mean, reported by who?

Yeah, I didn't see any measurables or hard data of any kind. Without it this article really doesn't mean much of anything to me: a bit atypical for an NPR piece.

 

[therealdope]

The CIA's estimates of the USSR's anthrax reserves were out by orders of magnitude. They thought they had 'good estimates', the were very wrong and only found out after the fall of he USSR.