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Cerrone has his kicks and a good clinch, but I take hands over feet in most engages.
Cerrone needs to hurt the leg early, if he can keep Connor off with solid leg kicks he may on to something, but if Conor is able to time and counter the kicks early, Cowboy is in big big trouble....
I agree with you on what Cerrone should try, use kicks in round one mostly and slow down Conor's movement and go for the clinch when he can to wear Conor down and take him to the ground.
If Cerrone decides to purely do a stand up fight with Conor his chances of winning are much less than if he mixes it up with grappling.