Sherdog's Own Pick for UFC 229: Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Who wins?


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Augustus Caesar

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Sherdog's Own Posters Pick the McGregor vs. Nurmagomedov fight.

See What the "Hardcore Fans" Think.


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Please read below for predictions, and scroll down to the very bottom for the results!

Sherdog's Own Picks

@FrankieNYC
I think in 10 fights both men could win 5 each.
It comes down to who's forte occurs first.
Conor's KO power or Khabibs ground game.
but if the odds are still favoring Khabib, I might drop some money on Conor
@BC
In a fight like this between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor with their stylistic matchup the outcome literally can go either way and the end result would not be surprising to me, both fighters have their keys to victory, both fighters have tendencies that the other will look to exploit.

We know that this fight likely goes one of two ways, Conor by knockout or tko or Khabib via utilizing his sambo and grappling to put a beating on Conor McGregor on the ground.

Khabib Nurmagomeov has never fought a striker with the angles and range and reflexes and precision of Conor McGregor.

Conor McGregor has never faced a fighter with the tenacity and pace and relentless pressure that Khabib Nurmagomedov possesses along with the grappling credentials to go with it.

So let’s jump right into it, for Khabib he knows that he has time and that the deeper the fight goes the more the fight begins to fall into his favor as Conor has shown in the past his tendency to fatigue.

Early on that means for Khabib he has to be very methodical with his approach so he does not allow Conor to get off that left hand otherwise he will be in for a short night.

Khabib’s key to victory will be to utilize his pressure to cut off Conor McGregor’s angles and to close distance on Conor. Like I previously mentioned Khabib will have to tread lightly a bit and be cautious to not be over aggressive and leave himself exposed to McGregor’s offense.

Khabib will look for that low single leg to make McGregor work.

Khabib’s chain wrestling will really factor in here, as he forces Conor to defend his single legs and fight off his body locks it will begin to wear on Conor and as the fight continues to go on Conor will begin to be less and less dangerous offensively and then it will be “Khabib Time”. Body lock throws, back side control and relentless ground and pound and repeat.

Of course the big factor in here for Khabib to establish his path to “Khabib Time” will be to not only pressure Conor but to cut his angles off with the cage.

Conor cannot afford to let Khabib bring him into his world.

For McGregor his key to winning will be to establish his range and use his angles to circle out of Khabib’s early single leg shots. I do believe Conor has the reflexes and speed and movement to avoid Khabib’s early takedown attempts, when doing so he will have to find his range so he can open up offensively.

Conor’s big weapon will be to utilize those front leg side kicks and his stabbing push kicks to establish his range and measure his distance on Khabib and utilize his angles to connect with that left hand.

Once Conor is able to find Khabib’s chin and tag him, he will put Khabib into uncharted territories and we will see Khabib out of his element as he will be looking to recover and the takedown attempts will come more frequently and they will become increasingly telegraphed, and then it will be a matter of time until Conor puts him away similar to how he picked Eddie Alvarez apart.

As I mentioned previously, ultimately it goes down to the tendencies and habits that each fighter has that can be exploited by his adversary.

So everything being said, I am taking Conor McGregor by knockout inside two rounds.

Khabib, when defending has this tendency to back right up with his chin in the air that is very worrisome to me, if Conor can dictate the range of the fight and back Khabib up with his striking it will be a bad night for Khabib.

I do believe Conor will land at some point in round one and when he does I believe he will pick Khabib apart leading to an eventual finish of the fight.

Official prediction: McGregor by TKO, Round 2
@Yari
I'm picking Khabib. I'd love to see it off, but I just don't see it happening. I think Khabib will tire him out and finish him in 3rd round by TKO.
@Verace
The reality is, nobody can tell for sure what will happen. And thats the beauty of it, thats why its so intriguing. Ive seen mutiple analysis everywhere and ive never seen mma media and fans have such a hard time picking a winner. Also, I really have no horse in this race. I like watching both guys, but i was never a fan of any in particular, so no bias here. With that said, even though i think khabib is the safer pick, i have a feeling conor is going to surprise everyone and KO him. I say this based on the fact that for multiple fights i saw it the exact same way: Conors opponents had, in theory, a better chance of winning on paper when you looked at their skill set and previous record. Then the fight happens and all of that goes out of the window. At least, if im right, im finally going to watch a conor fight and be able to say by the end this time: Im not surprised motherfuckers. Cause thats what how i felt so far. But, like i said, both have really good chance, so id be ok if khabib wins too.
@Wadtucket
Wad may or may not be blown at one point or another, God willing
@Da Speeit
Herrig vs Waterson: Herrig
Felice is big for the division and I think she uses her wresting against Michelle to grab a tight decision. Should be interesting on the feet, but Michelle is a lilttle to sharp to trade with for a prolonged period.

Lewis vs Volkov: Volkov
I actually like Lewis' skillset for this fight but I think his age and injuries are catching up to him. Volkov keeps a high pace for a heavyweight and it's hard to keep up when having back spasms.

St. Preux vs Reyes:St. Preux
Saint Preux should win by sub. Up and down record, but he's a crafty vet who has been in there with literally everyone and usually performs well when there isn't a lot of pressure on him.

Ferguson vs Pettis: Pettis
I'm going with a slight upset here. Tony is running his body into the ground and Pettis has stayed relatively healthy in the last couple of years. Pettis also usually wins crazy fights that involve a lot of scrambling, and that seems to be Ferguson's M.O. Ferguson is bigger, but Anthony is a tad sharper everywhere.

Khabib vs Conor: Conor
Picking with my heart instead of my head here. Conor at 155 just looks extremely difficult to pin down and beat. Khabib has many avenues of victory, but I think Conor beats him to the punch. Should be an early KO.
@Typrune Goatley
I have always believed Khabib would beat Conor. I became even more convinced after seeing Khabib's first takedown against Al Iaquinta. Khabib shot a low single from very far away and was able to take Al down. We must remember that Ragin' Al has a wrestling background. If Al was unable to defend that, I don't see how Conor can prevent the early takedown. Of course, Conor is a deadly striker and can end any fight in a moment's notice, but i think this is one matchup where he will be unable to land anything significant, and he will be completely taken out of his element. I believe Khabib will finish Conor on the ground by TKO or Submission in Round 2 or 3.
@Rex Kwon Do

@315MMAFighter
Well, I'm definitely gonna go McGregor all the way in this fight. I am USUALLY wrong whenever I make a prediction so I just want to go the other way around with it. Usually I'd do my best to use good ol common sense but I do believe in a "Magical Irish Knockout" happening and watching Khabib's head "Tap Tap off the canvas" will be extremely and extraordinarily satisfying to me lol tbh. It is something all of SHERDOG deserves and it will be just pure QUALITY
@TheIrishPsycho
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I dont think this is a clear and easy win for either guy despite what the nut munchers on either side will tell you. Both are eachothers kryptonite in a way. For Khabib, he appears to be very readable in his approaches to strikes which inevitably are there to mask takedowns, his feet are often planted as he comes in which just plays into Mcgregors strength which is timing a left hand or an uppercut. On the otherside of things, Conors takedown defense in the cage is poor while his against the cage takedown defense is actually pretty good it seems - however, his ability to get back up evaporates if his back touches the canvas with Khabib on top, if the fight gets in that position hes staying there for the end of the round or the fight. Khabib has crazy control and doesn't give up position for poor choke attempts which Conor could escape from.

So where do I stand, I think the fight will end in the second round with the biggest question for me being - "Can Khabib take one of Conor's shots clean?". The fight depends on the answer, if he can then its over for Conor, he'll be ground into a fine paste in the second round when his gas tank empties. If that first shot wobbles Khabib and he hesitates for a moment its Conor's fight to lose.

The only evidence I have to go with which helps me decide, is Michael Johnson wobbling Khabib, if Mcgregor catches him in the same way he'll go to bed i think. I also think, as mentioned Khabib's distance closing will effectively mean he will have to take a strike - I think Conor will catch him and KO him in the second round, possibly first coming in with a sloppy punch and later being stalked and KOed.

It's a weird one, Khabib is the better fighter...Conor only has a punchers chance, but Khabib gives up his chin far too easily so its just what i see happening - unfortunately. But Conor only has one shot to do it in my opinion, to make Khabib hesitate.
@wilKO
I predict Khabib. I think it's not a competitive fight either way. Both guys are extremely weak were the other is strongest so either Conor wipes him out on the feet or Khabib mauls him on the ground.

If I was a Khabib fan I would be worried that he has a tendency to not finish fights so there is a lot of time for Conor to land that punch. And Khabib gets hit a bit and has very basic understanding of head movement and boxing defence so it's dangerous every second it's not on the mat for Khabib but I feel he will be able to pressure Conor and be too much for him as a grappler.

In MMA when a great grappler fights a great striker it's usually the grappler who wins.
@Socialhandgrenade
i'm gonna go ahead and say Conor by ko. I've always doubted the guy and can't help but feel he's gonna surprise us again, despite hoping Khabib wins.
@Sweater of AV
It’s a coin flip imo. Either Conor gets the early finish or Khabib drags him into deep water and puts a beating on him. Regardless, most fans of the winner will pretend that the outcome should have never been in doubt.

I'd like to sit on the fence but I’ll go with Conor catching Khabib early and celebrating with the Goof over some Proper 209. He'll then announce his next paternity leave and will try to hold the belt hostage for another year. Hopefully they both just make it to the fight and are ready for violence.
@BiGWHOMPS
I’m going with Conor second round TKO.

If the fight goes past 2 rounds I would have to favour Khabib.
@FireKidWS
Conor bless bitches
Let the haters know we will remember them when King Conor slays Khaboob
@GearSolidMetal
Khabib.
Once Khabib gets a takedown on Conor, its over.
Conor's striking style is exhausting to his endurance. He can only standup and strike at full speed/power for one and a half to two rounds.
And once Khabib gets the takedown, whether its in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round, his grappling and GnP has exhausting to every fighter, including those who have much better endurance than Conor's.
Only way Conor can win this is by avoiding takedowns and TKO/KOing Khabib in the 1st or 2nd round. Otherwise, it's going to be a red panty night for Khabib.

I give Conor a 5% to 10% of victory, Khabib a 90% to 95% chance.
@Clippy
It seems like most Sherdoggers, or at least the loudest ones are going for Conor. I'm full in on Khabib and am expecting a more victorious victory than Diaz in the first Diaz/Conor fight. We all know that Conor is a great boxer and Khabib not so much - but all Khabib has to do is play it calm, cool and collective and weather the storm and get that take down and it's all over. If Khabib doesn't get stupid and try to keep it on the feet - he got this. Not to discredit Conor but I'm only giving him a punchers chance in this - the longer it goes on the better Khabib has it. Don't let me down Khabib. Khabib by submission in round 1 or at least early round 2.
@Buff
Man that's a tough one... I'm still 50/50 really, but leaning more towards Khabib - although if he drags it out he could get caught.

Khabih Sub RD 2 or Conor TKO RD4...

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@Arm Barbarian
Gun to head : Picking Khabib by UD or late ( 4th or 5th) round stoppage due to GnP accumulation.
@One MMA Fan
This is Khabib's fight to win or lose. A modern day classic a high level grappler vs a high level striker and I'm picking the former.
X factor how will Khabib react to the pressure of the big stage, big stakes. Yea I'm aware he did fight for the belt but never under this kind of pressure.. by now I assume Conor is the veteran in this spot and Khabib is the new comer.
Prediction: Khabib victory via TKO round 4.
@paynebringer
Khabib by absolute children just look away ending in a 3rd mauling...
@bigwaverider
************My prediction************

Conor by head clean off. Khabid's head on a tray, delivered to Putin.

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@PoundMeToo
Conor via Head Clean Off!
@TheRuthlessOne
I got Mcgregor all day every day

Khabib walks in with his chin up high and gets slept

No doubt in my mind


Sherdog's Own Mods/Admins Pick the Fight

@jei
They often say that the stronger grappler has the ability to control the fight by being able to choose where it takes place. Since he fought Trujillo in 2013, Khabib Nurmagomedov has taken down every opponent he's faced at least twice - a span of seven fights. During that time, he's also never lost a single round on a single scorecard, as many debate that his bout with Tibau was scored very poorly. With a TD accuracy under 50%, he makes up for that with his pressure and a high number of attempts. We all know he can completely wear fighters out with his takedown attempts, as was evidenced recently against Al after the first two rounds and Edson after he put a 30-24 level beating on him.

Conor McGregor on average defends about three of four takedowns, but that fourth one that Khabib attempts is the one that will matter. While Conor trained the year he took to fight Floyd Mayweather, how much of that time preparing for one of the greatest defensive boxers of all time was spent drilling takedown defense? Everyone likes to point out what fight this might most closely resemble, pointing to Eddie's inability to get McGregor down or Khabib's slowdown after the first two rounds against Al. If anything, this fight appears on paper like it will go in a manner similar to when Khabib fought Edson Barboza.

Can Conor hurt him standing? Sure, everyone knows that. Will he be able to keep enough distance long enough to land some meaningful blows? Possibly, but unlikely. Conor has never stopped a fighter after the first two rounds, although he did win both times his fights went that far. If he gets it done against Khabib, it will have to be early. Khabib's relentlessness will give him the upper hand in this contest, though. All three of Conor's losses have come by submission, and at the end of UFC 229, he will suffer his fourth defeat by submission.
@Kung Fu Tze
@Valhoven
With every match-up having as many variables as there are gameplans to bring into the octagon, this one really has its share. I would venture to guess:

Conor, Rd. 2, TKO (Punches)
Herb has been barked at before for not rightly breaking action and standing guys up. My prediction here ties into his having learnt his lesson. Anything I say is a roll of dice, admittedly.
@Madmick
Khabib, Rd 3, GnP TKO (Ref stoppage)
@chunglii
I have never picked a McGregor fight correctly.

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Khabib
@computer fogie
I also keep predicting Conor fights wrong. But this time, THIS time, I'm SURE.........I think.........

Conor won't be able to land a hard punch before Khabib gets ahold of him and takes him down. He'll find out that his grappling training isn't good for shit against Khabib. He will get taken down and beaten up. 2nd or 3rd rd ref stoppage, after Conor realizes he can't do shit once Khabib grabs him, and loses the will to live

So in other words, bet the farm on Conor, cause I pick Khabib.
@TeTe
I think Conor by tko.
@Peteyandjia
Supremely compelling matchup. Closest you can get these days to a pure 'striker vs. grappler' match at the title level in the modern era... even though the 'striker' in this case is a brownbelt in Jiujitsu, and the 'grappler' just jabbed Iaquinta's face off for several rounds.

If you punch this matchup into a computer, it would spit out one response: Khabib. However, matches don't happen in a computer... unless you stream them... hey, that's fucking illegal!!! You know what I mean. Fights don't happen on paper. And if there's anyone who can put a little magic spin on the 8-ball, it's Conor. As the old adage goes in boxing, 'Speed Kills'; and Khabib has a tendency to eat one or two on his way getting inside, his distance-closing is sloppy. It's about the only thing in his game that's sloppy, but it's enough to get him knocked out here. You can't gamble on eating Conor's shots to get inside, especially in the first two rounds.

Just to be clear: I wouldn't bet 10 bucks on this fight; it's that close of a matchup to me, highly competitive. However, if you put a gun to my head, or just threatened me with an airborne 60-pound dolly: I'd say Conor by strikes in the 1st.
@Inverse
I've had a hard time trying to pick a winner in this.

Firstly, Khabib obviously has the superior grappling by what appears to be a significant margin but the same could be said about Conor in the striking department. So this fight should come down to; can Khabib close the distance and can Conor keep the correct distance with his footwork? It's a really interesting fight and either fighter could beat each other, to be honest, but who will win on Saturday?

Khabib has a TD accuracy of 44% but he is relentless. Khabib fights aggressively and Conor is a pressuring counter striker. So, I think Conor can stuff a few shots and that will be enough for Conor to do damage on the feet. I think Conor's definitely going to land damaging significant strikes in this fight but Khabib will also land takedowns.

Conor's movement along with his high striking accuracy will give Khabib a lot of problems I think. But with Khabib's heavy takedown threat, he could potentially outstrike Conor for portions of time on the feet by feinting takedowns and pressuring. I know it might sound ridiculous but we have seen this happen to Anderson Silva when he fought Chael Sonnen. We also know that if Khabib lands takedowns Conor is in a lot of trouble.

I think Khabib is rightfully the favourite here but Conor could absolutely land the strikes he needs to win. So this is a compelling fight.

My pick is Khabib by (T)KO after a back and forth couple rounds.


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Results....


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With which poster do you agree the most? Please post below with your comments and predictions.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
AWESOME thread AC.:)

Gun to head : Khabib via UD or late stoppage,

But McG sleeping him early would not shock me tbh.
 
Been a while sense I thought Conor would win. I dont see Conor not being able to tag khabib. Conor KO first round. Pleae dont hold up the division! Tony is the real test for both fighters!
 
Knife to my huge dick: Conor by knockout.
 
It's Mendes v Mcgregor 2, with a few differences which cancel each other out (Khabib is a bit bigger and better than Mendes but Conor is now more experienced and hopefully not carrying an injury as he claimed he was back then).

So I think it'll play out very similarly: McGregor gets smashed for a round or two, but at the start of each round and after scrambles he consistently tags Khabib, ending in TKO for Conor 2nd/3rd round
 
Conor whitewashes Khabib on the feet.

The King gets his belt back.
 
Gobsmacked I wasn't asked for my view on said fight.

Boycotting thread because of this.

Goodbye.
 
AWESOME thread AC.:)

Gun to head : Khabib via UD or late stoppage,

But McG sleeping him early would not shock me tbh.
this.
it is the only logical conclusion.
Typical Cain & Junior fight. If Cain get his hands on Junior, Junior is in for a GnP for the remainder of the fight.
But one punch can change the whole thing up.
 
I don’t think it matters if Conor would lose a seven fight series with Khabib. I am picking him to win the first (and likely the only) fight. I base it on footwork and creativity. I don’t think Khabib and company will be able to solve that puzzle on the fly in the first fight. Everyone has a plan until they get hit with something they never saw coming.
 
I think what people are underestimating is that if/when Khabib is able to implement his will onto McGregor, he isn't going to finish him in quick fashion. He's already said as much, it's going to be a humiliation.

So that said, what you're going to see is an exhausted, badly hurt McGregor finished on the feet some time in the fourth or fifth round.
 
Dope thread, quality posters you have up there @Augustus Caesar

Conor by knockout is my official prediction.

I see Conor clipping Khabib and putting him away inside two words.
 
I voted Conor.
I might put some money on Conor.
Khabib has many flaws in his stand up.

The logic tells me that Khabib, after seeing the Mendes-Conor fight.
Khabib is more talented and much bigger than Mendes.
But I choose Conor. Just a feeling!
 
Khabib makes it look easy. 2nd round sub.
 
Conor seems to acknowledge and improve his weaknesses. He's a student of the game. That's what makes this fight interesting for me. Not sure if he can overcome Khabibs grappling though.

Gut: Conor ko rd1

Brain: Khabib UD
 
Khabib's skillset would be Conor's kryptonite if werent for the fact that he has very rudimentary footwork & striking. He doesnt fight well when his back is against the cage, and panics to get away, and Conor is exactly the type to punish that. Conor has some of the best footwork, angles, distance control and counter punching in the sport, and every fight starts standing. I can definitely see Conor turning Khabib's lights out.
 
What's the criteria to pick sherbros to make their predicitions?
 
Its might sound like a fanboy prediction but I really feel a 1st or 2nd round straight KO or TKO for McGregor and will post my slip later on in the week.
 

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